Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

hi every body
i have 61.8% weekly fib in 238.94 and 23.6% monthly fib in 239.16 and monthly 5 sma at 239.07
is any one confirm that???
karmo what is yours??
tks

Of course. My reversal/bounce point is 238.80 (where we are now). There should be more resistance at 239.20 if price manages to get there.

Global Economics: The bathtub, the running tap and SWFs - Global
Reason for Report: Economic Analysis

Link to full report including important disclosures*
http://research1.ml.com/CFCR/GetDoc....jEpgrEYA%3D%3D

US$1.2tn a year, US$7.9tn by 2011 ...
Assets under management by Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) are set to explode. Under reasonable assumptions we think they will grow by US$1.2tn a year to reach US$7.9tn by 2011, from US$1.9tn currently.

... as the bathtub overflows ...
This is a result of the massive build-up of reserves in recent years.
Central banks control over US$5.6tn in assets, with Asia and the oil-producers leading the pack.

... while the tap is still running at full pressure Reserves are still growing at a rate of nearly US$1tn a year, centered on China, Russia and the Middle East. We expect the tap to slowly start being turned off, as the US current account deficit reverses and global savings are re-channeled.

A massive re-allocation to riskier assets We expect the share of SWFs in riskier global assets to double or triple by 2011, with net inflows of US$3.1-US$6tn. This should support riskier assets relative to safer assets and put upward pressure on bond yields; it is unclear, however, whether prices of riskier assets would rise per se. It also supports the corporate sector at the expense of governments, supports global liquidity and removes one pillar of the private equity industry.

Downward pressure on the USD
Growth in SWFs implies a shift out of the US dollar into other currencies, with the share of the euro likely to be largely unaffected.

Extensive use of external managers likely The high costs and difficulties associated with setting up internal portfolio management, together with the risks of a protectionist backlash, augur for an extensive outsourcing of risk and the use of passive strategies.

Incremental revenues for the asset management industry We highlight a potential shift of US$1.5-US$3tn of assets into the global asset management industry, generating estimated incremental fees of US$4-US$8bn.

Risks of protectionism overblown
Other than using external managers, we would expect SWFs to address protectionist fears through strategies such as swapping access to achieve a deal.

Let's take a bubble bath
As governments focus on turning off the tap and emptying the bathtub, investors should rejoice in the more balanced global economy that this produces and the impetus it provides to continued growth and development of global asset markets.

* Read the research report, available through the link above, for complete information including important disclosures and analyst certification(s). Reports can be saved to your local drive in .pdf format. Merrill Lynch URLs are active for six months from the date that such report is published. There may be more recent information available. Please visit one of the electronic venues that carry Merrill Lynch research or contact your Merrill Lynch representative for further information.

DO you mind if I ask what your short entries are and your tp and stop loss? Youre already in some that you have been adding to right?

Entry:
C). 1hr charts: you only enter @ the point of the strength indicator cross over the 50 line upwards.
If you find that 1hr SI is way above the 50 line by the time you get a cross over confirmation from 4hr, which means a major retracement is due. Please wait until the 1hr SI turn bearish and go back to bullish again to enter.

d). 1hr Charts: Make sure a candle has formed above the TFT line.
Always enter @ the start of 1hr confirmation bar (second bar after the TFT
Crossover bar)

correct

Price is approaching 239.20, currently @239.10 .. on my platform

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1191793585

Just a chart, for what it's worth.

Yes, I was scaling in fairly early with small entries (starting at 237.80). Top entry was (238.80). This is my live (and fairly new) MT4 account and it works differently to my other live account. Trades are individual so I have to close them out separately. Therefore, stops and TPs are unique to each entry. I may close some of the lowers ones off at 239.50 should it print. My eventual TP is 235 to 234 (400-500 pips). However, I will be scaling out of positions for either profit or loss as it occurs - there is no set point for all entries. Chart with entries attached, however my bro-ker has not opened yet so price is not current.

Also remember that entries are not huge so I am comfortable with letting them run, especially during Sundays as price can run around fairly freely.

It's Sunday... the bears are still sleeping while some bulls jumped over the wall. They need to keep quiet in case they make too much noise. So keep it down.... Shhhhhhh.

With tomorrow, October 8th, being a holiday in both the US
and Canada, banks and businesses will be closed. Trading
will thus be low key.

Thanks for the reply Zor

I'll be watching the daily bar closely, possible reversal sign, just a thought.

Lazy bears .. The sun already shines on their butts and still sleeping .. might lose quite a lot of preys http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
Btw, it's interesting to see how the price evolves especially to prove your analysis
I am holding no positions as you know I currently only trade 15 min chart. When price presented itself then I will pull the trigger .. good luck to you

Yes, low volume with Japan on holiday also. Besides, it's my wife's birthday so the market mustn't upset her. Almost bed time here so I shall see you all soon.

I was thinking that too, possibly the bears have the shot until they get sleepy again. Anyway, the price is winding down a bit http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
Happy birthday to your wife!

Bearish Butterfly?

i have been follow this thread 2 weeks ago and there are many senior trader who have good analysis, i'am newbie, thx for all analysis, i hope i can contribute in this thread

That's coming from the ZUP indicator right? Islander posted something similar on the Daily GBP/JPY thread.

My butterfly has the B point at 78.6 and being the most important point, I like it to be pretty much on the pip. That pattern has a B point at 88.6 so I have no idea what it represents. Anyway, off to bed.