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Harmonic Wave Journal

  • #1,141
  • Oct 4, 2007 7:27am Oct 4, 2007 7:27am
Quoting ivalydial
sorry if my first post here sounds rude..
we're all here just simple to read n' learn from traex's journal, not to mix it with others
i know your counts prolly right, but better just keep to yourself or you can make a new thread.
this is his journal and let it be unless you ask for it

rgrds
LOL, here is an idea to learn better, why dont we make a chatroom for elliot wave traders only.. and we can share ideas and let eachother know what we think of the waves and trade with full confidence of the wave counts...
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  • #1,142
  • Oct 4, 2007 7:43am Oct 4, 2007 7:43am
Opportunity #E40/07
EUR/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 1.4114
Stop (initial): 1.4074

End of subwave 1 or A (?).

Update 1: Set TP1 at 1.4150 for +36. S/L will move to 1.4110 once TP1 is hit.
Update 2: S/L tightened to 1.4092 (guarantees -22).
Update 3: Closed manually at 1.4110 for -12. Bad week.

Total gain: -12
Tra-X
  • #1,143
  • Oct 4, 2007 7:55am Oct 4, 2007 7:55am
Quoting SeekingLight
Chart update(left unchanged, this is really how it filled out...notice TL and fib behavior).

So. Finally in 5?
LOL Cable managed to trick me again, guess I need to learn more about price action now. My waiting at 2.0250 area went down the drain.
Alright, I saw the first 5-wave up ending at the top of news spike. So yea prolly it's beginning of new impulse up.
Tra-X
  • #1,144
  • Edited 9:10am Oct 4, 2007 9:06am | Edited 9:10am
Opportunity #E41/07
EUR/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 1.4074
Stop (initial): 1.4034

End of subwave A or 4 down (?). Let's try again.

Update 1: S/L tightened to 1.4072 (guarantees -2).
Tra-X
  • #1,145
  • Edited 2:40pm Oct 4, 2007 9:16am | Edited 2:40pm
Opportunity #E41/07
EUR/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 1.4074
Stop (initial): 1.4034

End of subwave A or 4 down (?). Let's try again.

Update 1: S/L tightened to 1.4078 (guarantees +4). Took 1st profit at 1.4124 (+50). Set TP2 at 1.4174 for +100.
Tra-X
  • #1,146
  • Oct 4, 2007 9:17am Oct 4, 2007 9:17am
Around 2.0408.. 62% from the top... B?? I hope that 5 is in progress ... let's see.
  • #1,147
  • Edited 10:10am Oct 4, 2007 9:52am | Edited 10:10am
Quoting Traex
LOL Cable managed to trick me again, guess I need to learn more about price action now. My waiting at 2.0250 area went down the drain.
Well, if it helps - I got spiked out of my old longs by 6 pips - then had to wait 50 pips for a setup to then enter long 5 minutes ahead of BOE(price and EW precedes and supercedes FA, always) and basically "lost" 50 pips plus half my leverage since I am now only in with half a position.

Sucks.

But that's the setup I'd recommend anyhow to perhaps confirm some entries: pinbars / dojis. Helped this time. Now just hoping the move gets to go somewhere..

Quote
Alright, I saw the first 5-wave up ending at the top of news spike. So yea prolly it's beginning of new impulse up.
So how do I get a target for the fifth wave again?

I never ever have any idea how to project for the fifth...except once again those stupid channels..

Or should I just wait for the 5.3.5.2 and then estimate 5.3.5.3 from that and go from there?

Okay, projecting a channel off parallel touching 3, with basis waves 2-4 connected. Dito with touching 1.

Hm...can't attach charts at the moment..will in a second.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #1,148
  • Oct 4, 2007 12:27pm Oct 4, 2007 12:27pm
Quoting SeekingLight
Or should I just wait for the 5.3.5.2 and then estimate 5.3.5.3 from that and go from there?

Okay, projecting a channel off parallel touching 3, with basis waves 2-4 connected. Dito with touching 1.

Hm...can't attach charts at the moment..will in a second.
Well lemme make a guess... if this subwave 5 really kicks in, around 2.0700 is a good target. There, a guess.
How I get the number: 2.0491 + (2.0491 - 2.0277) = 2.0705.
Tra-X
  • #1,149
  • Oct 4, 2007 12:42pm Oct 4, 2007 12:42pm
Quoting Traex
Well lemme make a guess... if this subwave 5 really kicks in, around 2.0700 is a good target. There, a guess.
How I get the number: 2.0491 + (2.0491 - 2.0277) = 2.0705.
Thanks! So 5 would be at least equal to size of 4 on top of the end of 3? That'd be nice..didn't know you could do that! =)
Will look into it..


Now if only the chart obeyed...well the thing is - if this wave 5 is only to complete a larger wave 5.3.3 degree for example, then we'd have still another push left...so, as always, I am clueless with hierarchy and degrees!

But going from out current subwave(!) and from what I read, this channel top area is a rough estimate IF we are in a wave 5 - which isn't yet confirmed.


And always in the back of my head: 2.0590 is STILL a potential A=C (1:1) end for an ABC = larger B....or is that ruled out by now?
Attached Image
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #1,150
  • Oct 4, 2007 1:13pm Oct 4, 2007 1:13pm
Quoting SeekingLight
Thanks! So 5 would be at least equal to size of 4 on top of the end of 3? That'd be nice..didn't know you could do that! =)
Will look into it..

And always in the back of my head: 2.0590 is STILL a potential A=C (1:1) end for an ABC = larger B....or is that ruled out by now?
Errmm for that big wave B matter, the count will still be valid even if cable hits 2.07. Can't rule B out yet.
1.9183 - 2.0652 wave spent about ~4.5 months to finish, if this one is the correction of that wave, then big C down is coming soon. Alright, I still prefer an impulse rather than big B.
Tra-X
  • #1,151
  • Oct 5, 2007 1:47am Oct 5, 2007 1:47am
Sorry for my question.. From 1.9183 to 2.0652 which wave was it ??
Because I started counting later....I would like to know that....

Thanx....
  • #1,152
  • Oct 5, 2007 7:54am Oct 5, 2007 7:54am
Opportunity #E41/07 (re-entry)
EUR/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 1.4038
Stop (initial): 1.3998

End of subwave A or 4 down (?). Let's try again.

Update 1: S/L tightened to 1.4078 (guarantees +4). Took 1st profit at 1.4124 (+50). Set TP2 at 1.4174 for +100.
Update 2: Stopped out for +8. Re-entry at 1.4038, stop already tightened to 1.4033 (guarantees -5), 1st profit taken at 1.4084 (+46).

Opportunity #G50/07
GBP/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 2.0308
Stop (initial): 2.0258

End of mini wave 2 of 5 (?).

1st profit already taken at 2.0355 (+47), S/L already tightened to 2.0300 (guarantees -8).
Tra-X
  • #1,153
  • Oct 5, 2007 8:41am Oct 5, 2007 8:41am
Opportunity #E41/07 (re-entry)
EUR/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 1.4038
Stop (initial): 1.3998

End of subwave A or 4 down (?). Let's try again.

Update 1: S/L tightened to 1.4078 (guarantees +4). Took 1st profit at 1.4124 (+50). Set TP2 at 1.4174 for +100.
Update 2: Stopped out for +8. Re-entry at 1.4038, stop already tightened to 1.4033 (guarantees -5), 1st profit taken at 1.4084 (+46).
Update 3: Took 2nd profit at 1.4130 (+92). S/L tightened to 1.4070 (guarantees +32).
Tra-X
  • #1,154
  • Oct 5, 2007 8:48am Oct 5, 2007 8:48am
Opportunity #G50/07
GBP/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 2.0308
Stop (initial): 2.0258

End of mini wave 2 of 5 (?).

1st profit already taken at 2.0355 (+47), S/L already tightened to 2.0300 (guarantees -8).
Update 1: Took 2nd profit at 2.0408 (+100). S/L tightened to 2.0335 (guarantees +27).
Tra-X
  • #1,155
  • Oct 5, 2007 9:14am Oct 5, 2007 9:14am
Quoting Traex
GBP/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 2.0308

I got the count right - you got the entry right

I need to stop being right and start being more profitable ;p

for proving that wave counts prevail even in the middle of NFP
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #1,156
  • Oct 5, 2007 11:31am Oct 5, 2007 11:31am
Quoting Hery
Sorry for my question.. From 1.9183 to 2.0652 which wave was it ??
Because I started counting later....I would like to know that....

Thanx....
That was March-July wave... it's either big wave 5, or just its sub-wave 1 of big wave 5 (could be an ending diagonal), or waves 1 to 3 of ending diagonal big wave 5 with wave 5 currently in progress now. Confusing indeed.
Tra-X
  • #1,157
  • Oct 5, 2007 11:42am Oct 5, 2007 11:42am
Quoting SeekingLight
I got the count right - you got the entry right

I need to stop being right and start being more profitable ;p

for proving that wave counts prevail even in the middle of NFP
Pheww, what a week. Up down up down like crazy, especially cable and EUR/USD. But yea, even wave counts can't be disturbed by news like NFP.

Alright, that's it for this week. Enjoy your weekend everyone.
Tra-X
  • #1,158
  • Oct 7, 2007 5:08am Oct 7, 2007 5:08am
Weekly review:

Total trades closed = 3, winner = 1, losers = 2
Total gain in winner = +93, total loss in losers = -96
Net gain this week = -3

Open short-term trades:
EUR/USD Long from 1.4038 with S/L currently at 1.4070
GBP/USD Long from 2.0308 with S/L currently at 2.0335

Alright, a corrective week for the majors except maybe USD/JPY.
Cable is prolly in new impulse up (subwave (orange) 5?) or only in corrective subwave B up. Next upside targets after 2.0500 are 2.056-70 area then 2.0650 area this year's top. Possible subwave 5 up target at ~2.0700.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 30m.gif Size: 22 KB
Tra-X
  • #1,159
  • Oct 7, 2007 5:14am Oct 7, 2007 5:14am
EUR/USD has finished its wave (red) 5 upwards, or only subwave (orange) 3 up of wave 5 now. Well with this pair topped right at the beginning of month with only 6 pips of upper shadow makes me bet that this month it's still yet to see new high again. Next upside targets are still same: 1.4350 area, then ~1.4650 and 1.4800.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu h1.gif Size: 18 KB
Tra-X
  • #1,160
  • Oct 7, 2007 5:22am Oct 7, 2007 5:22am
Well, well, GBP/JPY continues its uptrend so far, reaching important resistant at 241.40-50 (early 2007's high and the left shoulder in weekly chart). Passing through here would strengthen GBP/JPY's carry trade continuation. Again, I guess this monster would depend most on USD/JPY's upwards movement.

Good luck to everyone next week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj 1h part 1.gif Size: 22 KB
Tra-X
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