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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #37,521
  • Oct 5, 2007 10:42pm Oct 5, 2007 10:42pm
Quoting Zoran
What projection?

Anyone waiting for the 61.8 line to be hit, it just happened.

I prefer this one. It's the 4h instead of 1h but looks closer to the others.
Hi Zoran,

Just wondering why it can't be like that (pls see attached chart, blue line) http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif :
Hehee .. good nite all.
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  • #37,522
  • Oct 5, 2007 10:54pm Oct 5, 2007 10:54pm
It could be like this.

LOL

Have a great weekend all!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: guppy1h-3.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #37,523
  • Oct 6, 2007 1:17am Oct 6, 2007 1:17am
Quoting monarch
It could be like this.

LOL

Have a great weekend all!
  • #37,524
  • Oct 6, 2007 1:18am Oct 6, 2007 1:18am
ive posted my weekly analysis here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=1#post1630716
  • #37,525
  • Oct 6, 2007 1:37am Oct 6, 2007 1:37am
Guys, do you actually use those analysis / speculations for trading, or are they created just for fun / discussion?

R

Quoting Zoran
What projection?

Anyone waiting for the 61.8 line to be hit, it just happened.

I prefer this one. It's the 4h instead of 1h but looks closer to the others.
  • #37,526
  • Oct 6, 2007 5:06am Oct 6, 2007 5:06am
Quoting mktjong
Hi Zoran,

Just wondering why it can't be like that (pls see attached chart, blue line) http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif :
Hehee .. good nite all.
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/tophead...605302766.html
  • #37,527
  • Oct 6, 2007 5:26am Oct 6, 2007 5:26am
Quoting Rocroy
Guys, do you actually use those analysis / speculations for trading, or are they created just for fun / discussion?

R
I am unclear on your question Rocroy. Could you please explain? We also welcome any analysis or speculations you may have as long as you provide a visual (chart...etc) along with an explanation of your visual.
  • #37,528
  • Oct 6, 2007 5:51am Oct 6, 2007 5:51am
Quoting PipChick
And you know I love ya too but....heheehe ...It already formed the right shoulder but it violated it. I trade what I see on the charts regardless if a formation was formed fundamentally or technically.I try not to make things too complicated when i analyze the charts because regardless how the technicals came about on the charts, they are still there.There are exceptions tho.
And I will be attached to your hip when the bear mkt occurs. Until then...yes, we are dip buyers anticipating at least the 241.00 area.
Can you please explain how a shoulder can be violated? Also, there is no head and shoulders on the weekly in the first place. I know you do things differently, but unless it completely forms and the neckline breaks then I will not trade it.

To trade it properly (in my books), I would need to see a reasonable break through the NL and I would enter on the throwback (i.e. when price returns to or near the NL). Stops would go somewhere above so the trade is low risk and high probability. Target would be the distance from the NL to the top of the head. That's how I trade them so there is nothing to trade and there is no H/S on the weekly.
  • #37,529
  • Oct 6, 2007 6:10am Oct 6, 2007 6:10am
Quoting mktjong
Hi Zoran,

Just wondering why it can't be like that (pls see attached chart, blue line) http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif :
Hehee .. good nite all.
Maybe if you can explain your thoughts then I'll be enlightened. Anyway, your blue line only goes to 329.20 so it's insignificant in my eyes. My charts tell me we have strong resistance in this area plain and simple (238.80) - enough to make my trades profitable even if target is not met.
  • #37,530
  • Oct 6, 2007 6:17am Oct 6, 2007 6:17am
Quoting Rocroy
Guys, do you actually use those analysis / speculations for trading, or are they created just for fun / discussion?

R
What do you think?
  • #37,531
  • Oct 6, 2007 6:29am Oct 6, 2007 6:29am
Quoting auslanco
237.72 was the actual entry @ 9EST(9.15 VT) 15min bar
Mr Auslanco, looking at the 1hr chart I understand that you wait until QQE5 cross bullish, so that generate the 9.15 Est entry...ok
My question is: shouldn´t we be waiting to the confirmation bar (of the qqe5 cross over) at 10 am Est and then place the trade?

Thanks in advanced for your time.

Best regards Lucy q.
  • #37,532
  • Oct 6, 2007 9:26am Oct 6, 2007 9:26am
Quoting Zoran
Can you please explain how a shoulder can be violated? Also, there is no head and shoulders on the weekly in the first place. I know you do things differently, but unless it completely forms and the neckline breaks then I will not trade it.

To trade it properly (in my books), I would need to see a reasonable break through the NL and I would enter on the throwback (i.e. when price returns to or near the NL). Stops would go somewhere above so the trade is low risk and high probability. Target would be the distance from the NL to the top of the head. That's how I trade them so there is nothing to trade and there is no H/S on the weekly.
GM Zoran,
I posted a chart yesterday of the weekly chart. What I mean when I say the head and shoulders pattern was violated is that the neckline was never penetrated. Instead, the price rose above the top of the right shoulder at approximately 235.14 and kept going.I dont believe I said I was going to trade it because it was already violated.(meaning the neckline was not broken. I agree with you on how to trade the h/s pattern as far as letting it break the neckline then pull back but the way I find to be even more profitable than that is to sell at the top of the right shoulder each time it reaches it anticipating a possible neckline break each time. This way you can make pips over and over instead of waiting for a neck line break.(This is all in reference to the weekly chart that I posted yesterday)
  • #37,533
  • Oct 6, 2007 9:48am Oct 6, 2007 9:48am
Daily chart is very bullish, so is the 4H, price completed it's daily 61.8% retracement from it's last fall to 219 area. Where will price go next? It could retrace back to the daily 50% fibo to see if it supports or not, or it could still go higher, the trendline is still supporting this upward trend, I wouldn't short this pair unless the TL gets broken and retracement for this last upward movement starts. I've also drawn a new fibo for this last daily swing (assuming this is the top, otherwise this fibo is invalid), you can see the 38.2% fibo (green) is very to close to the daily 50%, so it could retrace to that area and then bounce back up or it could retrace to it's favorite fibo level which is the 50%. This week should be interesting and lots of pips for us to grab.

http://img507.imageshack.us/img507/6210/4hhr5.gif

http://img512.imageshack.us/img512/8792/1hjg2.gif
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #37,534
  • Oct 6, 2007 11:00am Oct 6, 2007 11:00am
Quoting Zoran
Maybe if you can explain your thoughts then I'll be enlightened. Anyway, your blue line only goes to 329.20 so it's insignificant in my eyes. My charts tell me we have strong resistance in this area plain and simple (238.80) - enough to make my trades profitable even if target is not met.
It think you meant 239.20, right? Well, I actually wanted to draw the line way beyond this level but due to frame border, I can't http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
My thoughts is more like market perception/sentiment and a bit of fundamentals. Seems market is still very bullish on this pair, I haven't seen any news that would change this perception in the short term. US Fed is perceived more sided to economy growth instead of fighting the inflation as for now. British economy is still quite strong but facing hard time because of its high pound value (but not a sign yet to reverse, may due soon). I know Japan may possibly raise its interest rate before end of this year. This would contribute to sell off. Since technical anaysis on pretty much all time frames showing bullish signal (some showing overbought, but who cares, it may consolidate a bit and then shoot up again).
Well, maybe you can have your trade in profit but big drops is not on the card yet, I would say
  • #37,535
  • Oct 6, 2007 11:02am Oct 6, 2007 11:02am
Quoting FxMt
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/tophead...605302766.html
It's still showing price would go higher though before shooting down
  • #37,536
  • Oct 6, 2007 11:04am Oct 6, 2007 11:04am
Quoting Zoran
As long as 238.80 holds today, I'll be satisfied - the bulls can rethink their positions over the weekend - I just hope they don't bite their nails off. The resistance at 238.80 is strong and they obviously don't realise that.

I can't see 244 being hit until we revisit 235/234 (my target) - that's where they can collect more bulls to possibly break through 238.80. Now if the bears are smart, they will cause a panic (maybe next week) and scare them all away (i.e. bulls sitting at 235 to 227). Otherwise we could see 244 (and then 247).

I forecast this setup 5 weeks ago. See link (we are at the top of the last green line)

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...87#post1560987
It just took a little longer.

http://i20.tinypic.com/2qj9cle.gif
  • #37,537
  • Oct 6, 2007 11:34am Oct 6, 2007 11:34am
Quoting Gandolf
It just took a little longer.

http://i20.tinypic.com/2qj9cle.gif
Yeah, my timing isn't very good - I need to work more on that! Summer got in the way so we were ranging for a while. Here is an explanation of my thoughts at the time. This post was made just before posting that chart. I was expecting a low in the mid 229 area although it went to the mid 227 area.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=16155

Since we had that range, we may not go as low as first thought unless we have a panic. If the support at 235 to 227 holds (our range - boxed purple shaded area) then we could see something like the chart below before any major fall. That is a longer term view and based on the possibility that resistance at 239 to 244 breaks before our range. So lets wait and see - I like to keep my options open.

Of course I am still expecting my target of 235/234 to hit before we go up to 247. Resistance at 239 shouldn't break that easily.
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  • #37,538
  • Oct 6, 2007 12:03pm Oct 6, 2007 12:03pm
Quoting Zoran
Of course I am still expecting my target of 235/234 to hit before we go up to 247. Resistance at 239 shouldn't break that easily.
btw, great charts. always read your posts.
  • #37,539
  • Oct 6, 2007 1:56pm Oct 6, 2007 1:56pm
Do you make trading decisions based on your (mostly long term) analysis and speculations? Do you use those analysis in some other way to improve your trading? Or are they only for entertainment?

Just curious

R

Quoting PipChick
I am unclear on your question Rocroy. Could you please explain? We also welcome any analysis or speculations you may have as long as you provide a visual (chart...etc) along with an explanation of your visual.
  • #37,540
  • Oct 6, 2007 2:27pm Oct 6, 2007 2:27pm
Quoting Rocroy
Do you make trading decisions based on your (mostly long term) analysis and speculations? Do you use those analysis in some other way to improve your trading? Or are they only for entertainment?

Just curious

R
Rocroy,
Please explain how one would use chart analysis as entertainment?

Just curious
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