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  • #61
  • Oct 5, 2007 9:38pm Oct 5, 2007 9:38pm

Traders who make money year in year out on low timeframes (esp 5 min) are like rocking horse shit - you cant find a real one. if there is one on here that can show a consistent 10 months out of 12 profitable trading 5 minute charts i'll be very suprised.

As I mentioned above, I trade emini futures and my trades are taken off the 2, 3 and 5min charts. I have records that prove I can make money almost every single day. Definitely on a weekly basis and 100% on a monthly basis.

Since you've been in this business for 6yrs, I am a bit surprised to see your skepticism about short trading. It almost sounds that if you can't succeed or you don't even bother trading off shorter time frames, then nobody else can. I know for you and many other traders it's a pain in the butt to stare at charts all day long...I feel exactly the same way about longer term trading...it's a pain in the ass to do other things while I am in a position and must be patient and wait days or weeks for it to work out. Forget it. I even hate holding positions overnite, let alone days.

I also have the impression you are biased against short term traders, especially since you associate short-term trading with undercapitalized traders. I don't agree with you. Yes, there are lots of newbies with $500 accounts who are only allowed to trade shorter time frames due to overnight margin requirements, which for futures are much higher as opposed to daytrading margins.

However, there are many pros who daytrade with large accounts. I personally know a mini-S&P daytrader whose positions vary between 10-30 contracts per trade. That is some serious size for a private trader, it's the equivalent of $125-375 per tick.

In a few words, professional traders trade whatever fits their personality best. I am a very active person and I don't have the patience necessary for longer term trading, so I could never trade off daily charts. To me even 1hr feels like a lifetime while trading. I also couldn't sleep at night knowing that I have open positions left.

I am not making this up. I am saying this because I experienced it on my skin. And guess what? When I started trading FX as a newbie I read the very same things you're saying about longer time frames being better than shorter time frames, therefore I set up my charts off the 1hr, 4hr, 8hr and daily. My account was $10K, which is ok for starting out.

I believe one of the key turning points that led me to the winning side was changing trading style and finding my own niche sort'uv speak.

If we focus on FX only, I agree that smaller time frames are very tough to trade. I watch FOREX charts regularly during my trading day and I have the feeling it's a lot harder to make money on shorter time frames there.

I've never tried it though. One of the reasons it's a lot harder to trade off 5min charts in FOREX as opposed to index futures may be the different trading hrs.

Here is why. Let's say both a currency pair and an index future average 100 ticks per day. The main difference here is that in the currency pair those 100 ticks will be spread out over a 24hr time span whereas in the index future it'll be distributed over a 8hr period. That's exactly three times less for the same range. Furthermore, if you trade off the 5min chart you MUST be at the computer all the time. It's humanly impossible to be at the computer for 24hrs per day! This makes FX short term trading unappealing unless a trader decides to discretionally pick 8-10hrs and trade those. The problem is that you just never know when a currency pair moves and how much...maybe it'll move 30 ticks during Tokyo, 40 during London and another 30 during NY.

They pay analysts a fortune to try and predict the news and they get it right about as much as my cat so what chance have i got? none, so why bother? whatever the news is it won't effect my strategy which is wholly technical in nature.

The important thing about the news is not predicting them nor interpreting them. It's knowing something may happen at that time. News and fundamentals are what move the mkts, so if you see the dollar getting hammered right after 8.30am...mmm, it's likely because of some reports that just came out.

If you are a longer term trader, news have very little impact on your trading because I assume you make decisions at end of the day.

If you are a daytrader, news ARE EXTREMELY IMPORTANT. Heck, in the rare news-free days I usually cut my daily goal by 25-50% because there are no market movers and markets are likely to range.

To answer your last question, this is my 4th yr trading. I almost did it all: stocks, FX and futures. I must say that when I was trading stocks I wasn't really serious about it...I took it as a game and was one of the many lucky ones who rode some of the bull market before 2001. Mere luck back then.

I later decided to become a daytrader and got into FX for 1 and 1/2 yrs.

I've now been in futures for 1yr and I am very happy.

Soultrader, I didn't mean to criticize your points but rather to clarify what I interpreted as misconceptions and common places.

Cheers.
  • #62
  • Oct 6, 2007 4:38am Oct 6, 2007 4:38am
Hi Italiansharp, thanks for the post.

As said earlier - All of my comments refer to the Forex market. When I traded the DJIA I also did 5 minute trading, but it's a different ball game entirely to Forex as i'm sure you agree. and 5 min traders that make decent money in this market are very rare.

Also, as emini, russell, djia etc are not 24hr markets I couldnt sleep with positions on either. - but with forex your stops will be hit etc etc.

again when talking about lot sizes you are quoting mini s&p and not forex. Just a reminder, this place is called Forex Factory and by your own admission you've not tried low timeframe trading on forex.

As for the daily news it hardly ever makes a real difference in my book, but then i'm a trend trader - suprising tho it seems most news announcements serve to push price with the prevailing trend more often than against. and when it is against it tends to rebound back within a short space of time, take a look at NZDUSD yesterday as a pointer of this.

Its very rare that a single news announcement changes a trend, it's mostly a group of four five or six announcements coupled with intrest rates and sentiment that determines a trend change. I'm a trend trader so I really don't give a toss about the news as generally speaking it will go in my direction anyway and if it does not it will most likely come back at least to test. So I ask, why should I bother?

Hang on, let me answer that - IF i was trading a single instrument, IF i was trading shorter timeframes and IF all my eggs were in one basket like say the e-mini then yes, I would be concerned about news because I would most likely be into it for bigger money and might be sweating the trade.

However my risk is spread across many pairs, on longer timeframes and my exposure on any one group of currencies is small in relation to my account - therefore i can go for lunch, play golf and generally have a life whilst all this 'news' is happening just waiting for a text message to tell me a trade has entered

I don't make trading decisions at the end of the day - trades are taken all through the day - my method is mechanical in nature and sometimes i find myself taking positions a few seconds before news but I dont care, I take em anyway - some win, some lose.

I do take your points on board Italiansharp, but you are talking from a standpoint in which you have no experience - can i ask the reason you did not stick with forex when you tried it?

I can tell you have experience in your chosen market and with respect suggest that forex is a different ball game, that is what i was talking about.

Also that even now, in your fouth year you are still new on your chosen market of just one year so it's still interesting and exciting. The next stage you will come to is that when you're getting bored with it you start to look for ways NOT to trade - so you can actually have a life and spend some of this money
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  • #63
  • Oct 6, 2007 6:18am Oct 6, 2007 6:18am
This discussion leads to nowhere because every successfull trader has its own style based on his preferences and personality, psychology. The failure amongst other things comes from the fact that the method you trade clashes with your personality and you cannot accept that.
So ItalianSharp is comfortable with daytrading but soultrader not. Two different perosnalities.

My 2 cents.

Regards
bullrock
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  • #64
  • Oct 6, 2007 7:45am Oct 6, 2007 7:45am
Quoting ItalianSharp

If we focus on FX only, I agree that smaller time frames are very tough to trade. I watch FOREX charts regularly during my trading day and I have the feeling it's a lot harder to make money on shorter time frames there.



If you are a daytrader, news ARE EXTREMELY IMPORTANT.
ItalianSharp - great post but to be fair, this is a Forex forum and as such, many of us make comments with regards to the Forex market and not the e-mini market. You have to remember that spreads in forex for the average trader on this forum is around 2-5 pips. Scalping for 5 pips and paying 5 pips to a broker is not a challenge that even the best traders can overcome.

Also remember the concept of a tick on Forex is blurry. Since there is no centralized market there is no reporting of all transactions. A tick simply represents the trades your broker observed.

Forex is a trending market. That's the concpet that attracted most of us in the first place. I belive this is quite true but as you drill down in time you start to lose the trend and find yourself embedded in noise. It's the old forest vs. trees dilemma. In systems I've tested, accuracy tends to increase slightly with higher time frames.

Knowledge of news events is not necessary. Unfortunatley, I can not "un-know" that NFP is usually the first friday of the month but for all other news I have no idea when they are being released and I rather enjoy the ignorance. Having knowledge of the news in my early days hurt me a lot more than it helped me. Unfortunately a lot of people here were attracted to Forex by seeing a giant 1 minute candle and were told that they could have traded that. A single news event rarely has the ability to curb the direction of currency flow.

There is no increased margin for holding positions overnight since there is no "overnight." There isn't many better feelings than waking up in the morning, scratching yourself and seeing that your trending position pushed forward another 100 pips.
  • #65
  • Oct 6, 2007 8:07am Oct 6, 2007 8:07am
Quoting philmcgrew
ItalianSharp - great post but to be fair, this is a Forex forum and as such, many of us make comments with regards to the Forex market and not the e-mini market. You have to remember that spreads in forex for the average trader on this forum is around 2-5 pips. Scalping for 5 pips and paying 5 pips to a broker is not a challenge that even the best traders can overcome.

Also remember the concept of a tick on Forex is blurry. Since there is no centralized market there is no reporting of all transactions. A tick simply represents the trades your broker observed.

Forex is a trending market. That's the concpet that attracted most of us in the first place. I belive this is quite true but as you drill down in time you start to lose the trend and find yourself embedded in noise. It's the old forest vs. trees dilemma. In systems I've tested, accuracy tends to increase slightly with higher time frames.

Knowledge of news events is not necessary. Unfortunatley, I can not "un-know" that NFP is usually the first friday of the month but for all other news I have no idea when they are being released and I rather enjoy the ignorance. Having knowledge of the news in my early days hurt me a lot more than it helped me. Unfortunately a lot of people here were attracted to Forex by seeing a giant 1 minute candle and were told that they could have traded that. A single news event rarely has the ability to curb the direction of currency flow.

There is no increased margin for holding positions overnight since there is no "overnight." There isn't many better feelings than waking up in the morning, scratching yourself and seeing that your trending position pushed forward another 100 pips.
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  • #66
  • Oct 6, 2007 10:54am Oct 6, 2007 10:54am
Hi Soultrader

Your last post clarified all of my doubts and I am sorry if I misinterpreted some of the comments you made in the last couple of days.

You are right, FOREX is a totally different ball game. It's like football and rugby, similar sports but VERY DIFFERENT.

Why did I decide to quit FOREX?

Simply because my trading style and desired time horizon does not bode well with it. I am a volatility trader and I need things that move on lower time frames within a short period of time. FX was a bit slow for my desired style and to make it work I would have had to stick to higher time frames, which goes against my personality as I already mentioned.

I remember I too used to receive text messages on my phone when a trade was triggered.

That happened when my system was mechanical and every rule was written in stone. Apart from the initial six months in which I lost 25% of my capital, the following six months I managed to constantly break even and I am confident had I stuck to it, I might have been profitable in forex by now.

However, as I traded forex with a mechanical system and off higher chart intervals, I got to know myself a little better and understood two key personality traits of mine that led me to make the shift from FX to eminis.

First, I need to be in control of my actions at all time. While trading a mechanical system I discovered I tended to question the system all the time, regardless of whether it'd make money or not. Which is a big no-no for system trading. I felt sort of stupid to be so rigid and mechanical with those fixed rules when markets change all the time. I needed to be more discretionary and accountable for my decisions. This was a hard decision to make simply because having a system relieves you from taking part of the blame when things go wrong; it's psychologically comforting to have a system that survived rigorous backtesting. I decided to get rid of that comfort and take full charge of my actions.

Second, waiting for a medium-term trade to develop felt like watching paint dry. You mentioned you can enjoy more free time and play golf while your orders are triggered. The problem with me is that I can't enjoy life when my money is on the line. Don't get me wrong here. I do have long-term investments like treasuries and bonds and it that doesn't bother me a bit. However, I prefer to close everything at the end of the day and sleep stress free rather than continuously checking the screen and see how my position is faring.

It's a limit of mine, I admit that. But I have to deal with it and here is why I feel better daytrading 8hrs per day.

One last reason that just came to mind is that the equity curve of a successful long-term trader is not as smooth as the equity curve of a successful daytrader. Via daytrading I can make money almost on a daily basis. I like that because I feel financially more secure. I know the big money are made via holding onto positions and letting profits run...yet I prefer the stability of little everyday rather than a lot once in a while.
  • #67
  • Oct 6, 2007 10:59am Oct 6, 2007 10:59am
Quoting philmcgrew
ItalianSharp - great post but to be fair, this is a Forex forum and as such, many of us make comments with regards to the Forex market and not the e-mini market. You have to remember that spreads in forex for the average trader on this forum is around 2-5 pips. Scalping for 5 pips and paying 5 pips to a broker is not a challenge that even the best traders can overcome.

Also remember the concept of a tick on Forex is blurry. Since there is no centralized market there is no reporting of all transactions. A tick simply represents the trades your broker observed.

Forex is a trending market. That's the concpet that attracted most of us in the first place. I belive this is quite true but as you drill down in time you start to lose the trend and find yourself embedded in noise. It's the old forest vs. trees dilemma. In systems I've tested, accuracy tends to increase slightly with higher time frames.

Knowledge of news events is not necessary. Unfortunatley, I can not "un-know" that NFP is usually the first friday of the month but for all other news I have no idea when they are being released and I rather enjoy the ignorance. Having knowledge of the news in my early days hurt me a lot more than it helped me. Unfortunately a lot of people here were attracted to Forex by seeing a giant 1 minute candle and were told that they could have traded that. A single news event rarely has the ability to curb the direction of currency flow.

There is no increased margin for holding positions overnight since there is no "overnight." There isn't many better feelings than waking up in the morning, scratching yourself and seeing that your trending position pushed forward another 100 pips.
I agree with you. In fact, I mentioned in my post that FX is structured in such a way to make short-term trading unappealing.

I am stepping aside now because this is not my thread and I wouldn't want to go too far off-topic.

Cheers to everybody.
  • #68
  • Oct 6, 2007 10:55pm Oct 6, 2007 10:55pm
I'll add my 2 cents.

I have been trading forex for 3.5 years and have traded 10m and 5m charts successfully each year. Now, there are swings from month to month, and money management is PARAMOUNT, but yes, it can be done. And to be fair, I also don't think many people are suited for this time frame. But the fact remains that there are many big traders and firms who trade the small time frame charts.

My education in trading began with a college course on fundamental and technical analysis as applied to currencies. This was at Tulane University and is the only course like it in the country that I know of. The class was offered only to Finance majors and those pursuing a Masters of Finance. It began with the first half of the semester focusing on learning about trading and the 2nd half of the semester with simulated trading. At the end of the course those who did well with simulated trading could try to interview to trade for 2 months with a small fund organized by the professor of the course.

Long story short, I was 2nd place in the simulated trading out of approximately 75 students and I went on to record the single largest 2 month returns (98%) while trading with the fund. The fund has done its summer trading with new traders since 2003 and my record stands to this day.

We had traders come speak to us on several different occasions. Stan Jonas from FIMAT who is a very well known Wall St. trader trades that time frame with some major amounts of money. Another who trades this time frame was Gary Klopfenstein who at the time was managing over $1B of funds.

Now, what is interesting to note is that since 2003 I would estimate that 350 people have taken the course I took and only 35 have traded with the summer fund. Out of those 35 only a handful of us have been profitable. And that is with having a mentor who has traded for 20+ years and has a very impressive resume and has traded with some of the best. Needless to say I was quite fortunate to receive such an incredible education.

I will never argue that it is easy to trade the 5m with success. It simply is very difficult to compete with the spread. But it most certainly is possible and I have met a few people who do it with serious amounts of capital.
  • #69
  • Oct 7, 2007 2:33am Oct 7, 2007 2:33am
Quoting JFX81
I'll add my 2 cents.

I have been trading forex for 3.5 years and have traded 10m and 5m charts successfully each year. Now, there are swings from month to month, and money management is PARAMOUNT, but yes, it can be done. And to be fair, I also don't think many people are suited for this time frame. But the fact remains that there are many big traders and firms who trade the small time frame charts.

My education in trading began with a college course on fundamental and technical analysis as applied to currencies. This was at Tulane University and is the only course like it in the country that I know of. The class was offered only to Finance majors and those pursuing a Masters of Finance. It began with the first half of the semester focusing on learning about trading and the 2nd half of the semester with simulated trading. At the end of the course those who did well with simulated trading could try to interview to trade for 2 months with a small fund organized by the professor of the course.

Long story short, I was 2nd place in the simulated trading out of approximately 75 students and I went on to record the single largest 2 month returns (98%) while trading with the fund. The fund has done its summer trading with new traders since 2003 and my record stands to this day.

We had traders come speak to us on several different occasions. Stan Jonas from FIMAT who is a very well known Wall St. trader trades that time frame with some major amounts of money. Another who trades this time frame was Gary Klopfenstein who at the time was managing over $1B of funds.

Now, what is interesting to note is that since 2003 I would estimate that 350 people have taken the course I took and only 35 have traded with the summer fund. Out of those 35 only a handful of us have been profitable. And that is with having a mentor who has traded for 20+ years and has a very impressive resume and has traded with some of the best. Needless to say I was quite fortunate to receive such an incredible education.

I will never argue that it is easy to trade the 5m with success. It simply is very difficult to compete with the spread. But it most certainly is possible and I have met a few people who do it with serious amounts of capital.
Probably that is very much possible. I have a few very simple strategies that could work on 5 min or 15 min chart but there are 2 problems that kills me (the need for higher timeframes).

1. Relatively high spreads
2. Extermely high spreads (10-30 pips) during NFP

I imagina that the "big boys" you have mentioned do not have this issue.. I would be profitable if I could have fixed and very low spreads which is inimaginable if I do not work for a big financial institution and do not have large capital running into several 100 millions.

Any comments?
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  • #70
  • Oct 7, 2007 3:38am Oct 7, 2007 3:38am
Hi ItalianSharp,

What you said about pip/tick movements being compressed into an 8 hour time frame in futures made sense to me. Where the forex market is able to move around 100-200 pips per day, this day that we are talking about spans 24 hours and is widely spread between the different zones. As such I agree that trading off the smaller timeframes is less rewarding for forex.

But I did some thinking on my own before on this and I'd just like to share what I've realized.

As traders, we are looking for high probability trades with good r/r ratios and to be sufficiently profitable, we have to eliminate those trades where we are CLOSE to gambling. For me, trading off smaller timeframes equates to gambling or being pushed closer to chance. I'm not saying that there arent any traders who have been profitable scalping the market.

Having a long-term view of the market and letting the price confirm your view and going along with the market seems to make more sense to me in terms of probability don't you think?
  • #71
  • Oct 7, 2007 2:21pm Oct 7, 2007 2:21pm
all excellent replies. the stories above seem to say to me that as said before there are a FEW who can make it on the lower timeframe charts - they are the exception that proves the rule.

Also, with respect italiansharp, the subject was newbies vs veterans and was a little tongue in cheek - at 3 years under your belt heading into number four you're not a veteran yet tho no longer a newbie. In fact strictly speaking neither am I at 6 years but having done nothing else 12 hours a day for the past 6 years I come close

Remember that to comment truly on a thread about veterans you ought really to be one

JFX81 you sound like the kind of guy we could all learn off looking forward to hearing more from you in the future.


on a sidenote I think there may be scope where for a seperate thread explaining exactly what the 'big boys' do and how they trade - if you think the banks sit there looking at 5 min charts or even study charts for the most part you are quite mistaken. Banks mainly make their money executing for clients and then getting a better price than they sold to the client. Hedge funds play the Global Macro game, something totally unlike we retail traders do.

I wonder if someone who works as a trader for a bank would like to explain on here how they operate. I know a few but getting them to talk openly might be a bit of a feat
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  • #72
  • Oct 7, 2007 9:08pm Oct 7, 2007 9:08pm
Quoting JodyOng

Having a long-term view of the market and letting the price confirm your view and going along with the market seems to make more sense to me in terms of probability don't you think?
Hi JodyOng

I think one of the beauties of trading is that it incorporates a long array of different styles and preferences.

I honestly don't think there is a big advantage trading smaller or longer time frames. There are pros and cons for both of them. I believe the real edge is to trade what makes you feel more comfortable.

If you take a daily chart and delete the "daily" tag on top of it and replace it with "5min"...I am sure many traders couldn't tell that you flipped them over...
  • #73
  • Oct 7, 2007 10:26pm Oct 7, 2007 10:26pm
Hi Looks like an interesting thread-although all those trades look to Be exhausting!

I trade the equity/carry trade connection-mainly because curreny price can only move one way depending what's happening with equity markets. I don't pretend to know which way equity markets will move everyday-but i've learned to be patient and to wait for two of my three trading conditions to be met.

When greed is high and risk aversion shrinks-I long the JPY crosses.
When fear is high and risk aversion grows-I short the JPY crosses.

Example-the NFP last Friday reduced chances of a recession, which was a relief to everyone. So everyone is thinking the same, which is the only time to trade in the short term (day or less). S&P and 10 year bond futures told you all you needed to know about what the market reaction would be during the day-S&P futs rose and the 10 year bond Dec contract sold on the news. Equities figured to go positive on the day and that means the JPY crosses must rise as the dollar depreciates vs the high yielders and gains vs the Yen. And that's what happened.

Another contract that I am finding a love for is the Fed Funds Futures-the ZQ contract that trades on the ECBOT. What i'm doing recently here is waiting for the market to get "all in". They were nearly all in for a rate cut in October prior to the NFP. As soon as that number printed, the contract was immediatley way oversold-so a short there has netted a lot so far and figures to net more as the chances of an October rate cut are reduced further.
  • #74
  • Oct 8, 2007 12:00am Oct 8, 2007 12:00am
Quoting NewstraderFX
As soon as that number printed, the contract was immediatley way oversold


Quote
-so a short there has netted a lot so far and figures to net more as the chances of an October rate cut are reduced further.
Could you explain in more detail how you handled this trade? The ZQ market priced in the NFP figure instantly. If you shorted after the news, there were only a couple of ticks left on the table..
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  • #75
  • Oct 8, 2007 12:19am Oct 8, 2007 12:19am
I was working with the October contract
  • #76
  • Oct 8, 2007 12:33am Oct 8, 2007 12:33am
Gambled on this one-but I'm still demoing it!
  • #77
  • Oct 8, 2007 12:43am Oct 8, 2007 12:43am
Quoting bullrock
Probably that is very much possible. I have a few very simple strategies that could work on 5 min or 15 min chart but there are 2 problems that kills me (the need for higher timeframes).

1. Relatively high spreads
2. Extermely high spreads (10-30 pips) during NFP

I imagina that the "big boys" you have mentioned do not have this issue. I would be profitable if I could have fixed and very low spreads which is inimaginable if I do not work for a big financial institution and do not have large capital running into several 100 millions.

Any comments?
Sure.

Basically the big boys that I know of typically try to wait anywhere from 30 seconds to 2 minutes after a major release to A) Let spreads soften and B) make sure a figure is not revised or if there is a dead cat bounce in the market.

It isn't too often that they bet one way or the other given the way the market has been reacting to numbers the past 2 years. Now, sometimes they make volatility bets and leave positions open with trades going both ways on a single currency with tight stops, but that is only on the numbers that won't jack the spread into the next epoch.

The way a smaller trader can play the big releases is simply by scaling in. Cut your size down to 1/2 or 1/3 of your typical trade. Even 1/4 is appropriate if you are trying to get into a trade before the release. If you got the direction of the trade correct then try like holy hell to get in another 1/4 or 1/2 normal position size as the spread calms down if you are trading a broker like Oanda. If you hit the wrong side of the trade you are not totally screwed because, clearly, you have cut your size down considerably. Yet if the market trends in the direction you chose, you can certainly ride it pretty easily for at least 10 minutes and longer depending on the movement. It most definitely will not work each and every time, but it can pay on the times when economic figures come in way off of target.
  • #78
  • Oct 8, 2007 12:46am Oct 8, 2007 12:46am
Quoting NewstraderFX
I was working with the October contract
The same chart/scenario occurred in the Oct contract. My question still stands..
  • #79
  • Oct 8, 2007 1:31am Oct 8, 2007 1:31am
Quoting ItalianSharp
Hi JodyOng

I think one of the beauties of trading is that it incorporates a long array of different styles and preferences.

I honestly don't think there is a big advantage trading smaller or longer time frames. There are pros and cons for both of them. I believe the real edge is to trade what makes you feel more comfortable.

If you take a daily chart and delete the "daily" tag on top of it and replace it with "5min"...I am sure many traders couldn't tell that you flipped them over...
That is hell true, finding a timeframe that fits your temperament and style is the most important.
  • #80
  • Oct 8, 2007 2:55am Oct 8, 2007 2:55am
there is a massive difference Jody and italian between lower and upper timeframes - the main one being profitability
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