Weekly Interplanetary Expectations for GBP/USD

Ok, it’s time to get serious, again.

So what if I got in over my head a few years ago and followed the vague, misleading advise of my Forex broker. He’s only human. Why should I have expected him to look out for my best interests? So what if I lost my entire investment portfolio because I panicked, went without sleep and tried every indicator/system I could get my hands on without fully understanding what it was I was playing with. Now is all that matters. Happiness is my daily goal. Happiness attracts good decisions, good company and good fortune, even if it is measured under a ‘micro’ scope.

Who I am is paramount in this or any endeavor I choose; therefore, I must be constantly aware of my work schedule, my family responsibilities, my exercise routine and any unexpected disturbances.
This seems like a good place for my weekly mantra:

1. My brain is a super computer
2. My brain sees and understands things that are far too complex for a Dual Core Pentium
3. I must feed my brain visual input, the more the better
4. I must feed my brain economic data, and always add a dash of salt
5. Even though I am the master of many things, the market can and does move in strange ways and often. Always cover thy longs with shorts and vices-versa
6. Scenarios are my friends. Create many, embrace them all, but do not get married to one. My ex-wife was a scenario
7. My journal is my sanctuary. Use it religiously. Do not attempt to write it in stone. God already tried that. A laptop is much more portable, duh!
8. Avoid the words of those who think they are better than God or worse than the devil. Strive instead to be something every day.

My 1,001 trades worth of experience has taught me to first look at the Forex in its entirety on a weekly basis. Experience has taught me that my preditions are at least as good as my former brokers. Experience has taught me to create 3 scenarios for possible weekly price action. Experience has taught me to keep this fun, so that I want to do it, there by making it less of a chore and more like play time. Make exercise fun, like all things, it too should be a celebrations of life and the freedom that life brings. The bible has taught me to be like the children with an open mind, striving for nothing more than the wonderment of the universe. Go forth in thy quest and reap the bounty of the Forex universe.

Note to self: Do not provide signals. Do not receive signals.

STATUS REPORT

Fundamentals:
USD got a bit of good news last week, but sentiment is still strong Dollar negative. Need to focus on long-term economic trends because a noticeable dollar positive trend in several indicators will be needed to reverse sentiment in favor of dollar. Euro has already launched into the unknown obis, and the pound will likely follow. Appropriate news noise filters should be activated this week.

Technicals:
GBP/USD just broke out of large daily triangle formation to the upside.

Scenario # 1.) A re-test of the breakout region is likely with small chops at minor support areas. A major battle will likely occur around major support confluence of 50.0% fib ret and upper triangle border. This will be key area to watch for bounce or an attempt by earthlings to run stops.

Scenario # 2.) A possible runaway to the upside is possible. Previous attempts to launch were spoiled by earthling made Bernake-bombs, which cause massive quantities of stop lossage. The number of attempts to board stellar bound ships may be reduced now and lighter passenger loads could make for quick take-offs.

Scenario # 3.) The least likely scenario is a successful run of stops that cause a break of afore mentioned triangle to the down side which in turn might cause a massive ‘repopulation of earthling dwellings’; although earthling green paper factory outlets have yet to indicate they are able to finance such an endeavor.

Scenario # 4.) Total chaos could break out if the Hamptonite variety of earthling should decide to invest in more Bernake-bombs. This could be dangerous for flights of any type, so if this were the case camouflaged hedges should be used to cover flight suits.

Phase 1 is underway. False break above last weeks high went 30 pips before dropping. Staistical studies SUGGEST that price drops an aveage of 96 pips in this case making a general area for bounce @ support level #1. BuyLimit is placed accordingly.

Note to self: Took a chance on early breakout with a small order. Fear of being left behind was the motive for this order. Fear sucks! Fear is not happiness. Happiness is contentment, content to sit and wait and enjoy the waves of the River Forex as they ride up and over the rocks. When I see the rythm of the waves it is safe to let my raft go and ride until the river changes course.

Update: BuyLimit @ sup area #1 was missed by a few pips. That's ok. Upward Momentum has since died off. Market likely to stay in range, waiting for catalyst. New TA chart shows profound confusing confluence. A sit and wait strategy is recomended until price enters one of the blue zones and gives clear sign of future intention.

Price action and position relative to forks indicate high probability for short scalp against major trend. Will need to keep close eye on this one as market is shakey.

Update: 06:20 PM
1st order: short @ 2.0420 0.1 lots -13sl
2nd order: short @ 2.0415 0.2 lots +14tp
3rd order: short @ 2.0419 0.2 lots +22tp
net gain +23pips
Market was spooky quiet and I was going against the major daily trend so Bagem-n-run!
Wait for some movement, maybe get another quick spike to ride down again. Need to be able to watch closely if I decide to go for it again.

I just can't seem to screw up even when I try. THIS is F U N!

Those pretty colored boxes must mean something. I wonder how they attract so much attension from price movement. I'm sure it has something to do with Bernoulli's equation of fluid dynamics.

Oh, so what. Just stick a fork in it and wait till it's done!

I was up 186 pips this week on this pair until I grew big balls 2 hrs after NFP. Now I'm holding into the weekend and I'm HOPING (that's a 4 letter word) the FEDs don't catch up with me.

Truth is I don't know which direction price will go next week although I give it 60/40 in favor of weaker GBP for a few days at most then ??? Those odds suck so I'll be sidelined for the most part. This could be prolonged range bound trading for a while. I mean speculators are still leaning towards stronger GBP, and the Big Dogs want to eat stops!

One more note to self:
Yes, I'm a good analyst and I've known that for years. Trouble is I lack the discipline to obey my own rules. Time to shut up and put up.

Update: Watch for news early next week Mon/Tues

Mon. Oct 8th, 12:48PM:
Closed short from Friday for +50pips
Expecting increased volitility so went for 50pips rather than give it back.
FOMC News tommorrow @2PM. This event's effect is hard to determine before hand, watch the technicals.