And now
Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)
- #37,504
- Oct 5, 2007 4:04pm Oct 5, 2007 4:04pm
- Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Trader | 4,090 Posts
I dream, therefore I become.
- #37,506
- Oct 5, 2007 4:08pm Oct 5, 2007 4:08pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Sep 2007 | 4,407 Posts
If you think about it..we could all be winners here. If it goes short...then all the shorts collect big pippies and the bulls can load up at a very nice price. Wait..seems like the longs win either way casue if it goes long instead of short..we still win..lol
Im just funning you Zor.
Im just funning you Zor.
- #37,509
- Oct 5, 2007 4:23pm Oct 5, 2007 4:23pm
- Joined Mar 2007 | Status: 'sleeping in a dumpster' | 2,151 Posts
What projection?
Anyone waiting for the 61.8 line to be hit, it just happened.
I prefer this one. It's the 4h instead of 1h but looks closer to the others.
i think the next point to check is daily 100 sma @ 239.30 before going down .
- #37,514
- Oct 5, 2007 5:15pm Oct 5, 2007 5:15pm
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Dubai | 11,493 Posts
Trade what you see, not what you think.
- #37,515
- Oct 5, 2007 5:42pm Oct 5, 2007 5:42pm
- Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Trader | 4,090 Posts
I dream, therefore I become.
- #37,518
- Oct 5, 2007 6:43pm Oct 5, 2007 6:43pm
- Joined Sep 2007 | Status: Trader | 6,871 Posts
Look at the weekly chart I posted saed. The left shoulder is at 241.50 area. That price was hit and then sank a few thousand pips. So we want to watch that area closely.
I don't have my charts in front of me (I'm at work), but I'm assuming the big spike down, causing your "left shoulder", was more fundamentally driven than technical? It was most likely not more than a few months ago, that it occured, when the carry trades were getting unwond. People were worrying about the credit market, etc. Now, we find ourselves well into the "credit crunch" with many people believing the worst is behind us as it very well could be. I'm not certain it is, but lets assume.
If that is the case, the economy is going to start to recover or at least, there won't be a large risk-aversion panic any time soon. To me, that means carry trades will continue the rise. So basically, why should there be a right shoulder formed? If the left was formed simply due to fundamental data that is not nearly as applicable now as it was then, what would form the right shoulder?
Are we all assuming that techs drive this market and a right shoulder MUST be formed? I don't think so! The way I see it, we're not getting a right shoulder unless something big (and bad) happens fundamentally as it did to create the left shoulder. H&S is a technical pattern and way of trading, not fundamental. If a PORTION of the pattern was formed fundamentally, I do not believe it is a valid formation when you are basing the next, let me remind you POTENTIAL, half of it on technicals that may or may not play out.
Obviously, I'm arguing for the fact that the formation will not complete because the underlying fundamentals that began its formation are no longer valid and I don't believe that technicals can solely drive the direction of a market when half of it was created fundamentally. The mindset of the traders is different now than it was when the left shoulder was created. People aren't going to say, "oh, ok the left shoulder should be about here" and start selling. Well, some people on this forum might, but the real players (prof. traders, banks, hedge funds and proprietary shops) will not.
As far as I can tell, there is no reason why GBP/JPY and all the other carry trades shouldn't continue north, that is barring any setbacks in the recovery from the credit crisis. If you compare charts with pairs like AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY to GBP/JPY, you will see that GBP/JPY is actually lagging the others in its asscent. What I mean is that it was caught up in a range well after the other two had broken out. Basically, the rise may have just begun and if you see it that way, GBP/JPY is at bargain prices right now. Reason for this? The Northern Rock troubles pushed the GBP/USD lower while the crosses were lagging as a whole. This kept GBP/JPY in check while the others were able to begin their northerly climb since there weren't any limelight economic troubles with any Aussy or New Zealand banks to affect AUD/JPY or NZD/JPY.
This is all of course my personal opinion, I'm just an idiot as we all know. I will continue to buy dips for the long run and play the short side simultaneously when I see fit. Until there is a clear bias to be net short, I will always have longs. I have no problem making money on both sides of the market so when the time is right, you can bet I'll be in the bear camp.
P.S. I'm willing to bet you agree with everything I just said
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
- #37,519
- Oct 5, 2007 7:42pm Oct 5, 2007 7:42pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Sep 2007 | 4,407 Posts
PipChick, you know I love you, but lets butt heads for just a moment here. Everyone is talking about this weekly H&S potential formation, so lets just say that hypothetically, I would trade off such a signal to begin with. There are some things to consider with this particular formation, not the H&S in general, but this specific one.
I don't have my charts in front of me (I'm at work), but I'm assuming the big spike down, causing your "left shoulder", was more fundamentally driven than technical? It was most likely not more than a few months ago, that it occured, when the carry trades were getting unwond. People were worrying about the credit market, etc. Now, we find ourselves well into the "credit crunch" with many people believing the worst is behind us as it very well could be. I'm not certain it is, but lets assume.
If that is the case, the economy is going to start to recover or at least, there won't be a large risk-aversion panic any time soon. To me, that means carry trades will continue the rise. So basically, why should there be a right shoulder formed? If the left was formed simply due to fundamental data that is not nearly as applicable now as it was then, what would form the right shoulder?
Are we all assuming that techs drive this market and a right shoulder MUST be formed? I don't think so! The way I see it, we're not getting a right shoulder unless something big (and bad) happens fundamentally as it did to create the left shoulder. H&S is a technical pattern and way of trading, not fundamental. If a PORTION of the pattern was formed fundamentally, I do not believe it is a valid formation when you are basing the next, let me remind you POTENTIAL, half of it on technicals that may or may not play out.
Obviously, I'm arguing for the fact that the formation will not complete because the underlying fundamentals that began its formation are no longer valid and I don't believe that technicals can solely drive the direction of a market when half of it was created fundamentally. The mindset of the traders is different now than it was when the left shoulder was created. People aren't going to say, "oh, ok the left shoulder should be about here" and start selling. Well, some people on this forum might, but the real players (prof. traders, banks, hedge funds and proprietary shops) will not.
As far as I can tell, there is no reason why GBP/JPY and all the other carry trades shouldn't continue north, that is barring any setbacks in the recovery from the credit crisis. If you compare charts with pairs like AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY to GBP/JPY, you will see that GBP/JPY is actually lagging the others in its asscent. What I mean is that it was caught up in a range well after the other two had broken out. Basically, the rise may have just begun and if you see it that way, GBP/JPY is at bargain prices right now. Reason for this? The Northern Rock troubles pushed the GBP/USD lower while the crosses were lagging as a whole. This kept GBP/JPY in check while the others were able to begin their northerly climb since there weren't any limelight economic troubles with any Aussy or New Zealand banks to affect AUD/JPY or NZD/JPY.
This is all of course my personal opinion, I'm just an idiot as we all know. I will continue to buy dips for the long run and play the short side simultaneously when I see fit. Until there is a clear bias to be net short, I will always have longs. I have no problem making money on both sides of the market so when the time is right, you can bet I'll be in the bear camp.
P.S. I'm willing to bet you agree with everything I just said
And I will be attached to your hip when the bear mkt occurs. Until then...yes, we are dip buyers anticipating at least the 241.00 area.