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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #37,481
  • Oct 5, 2007 3:22pm Oct 5, 2007 3:22pm
Quoting mike w
I think that you are correct, although I personally doubt it could climb to as high as 244 before the drop. My reasoning for this is the fact that most traders are going to be scaling in as short beginning at 239. This, in my eyes, will create the push downwards way before 244, I personally feel that 241 will be somewhat of a top, as this area is also an area of resistance to begin with. Any thoughts at all?
As long as 238.80 holds today, I'll be satisfied - the bulls can rethink their positions over the weekend - I just hope they don't bite their nails off. The resistance at 238.80 is strong and they obviously don't realise that.

I can't see 244 being hit until we revisit 235/234 (my target) - that's where they can collect more bulls to possibly break through 238.80. Now if the bears are smart, they will cause a panic (maybe next week) and scare them all away (i.e. bulls sitting at 235 to 227). Otherwise we could see 244 (and then 247).

I forecast this setup 5 weeks ago. See link (we are at the top of the last green line)

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...87#post1560987
  • #37,482
  • Oct 5, 2007 3:22pm Oct 5, 2007 3:22pm
Few hours left before market close....

anybody have any idea for next coming Monday?
I'm still new with G/U and G/Y pairs.
  • #37,483
  • Oct 5, 2007 3:24pm Oct 5, 2007 3:24pm
hello please am new to this forex and i will love to follow this tread and partern of trading, can u help out, i need to know when the time to enter a trade use to happen on the GMTtime, most of the time i realised that the time has past before i notice it, and can i still join even if the trend as started.
thanks for your help.
  • #37,484
  • Oct 5, 2007 3:26pm Oct 5, 2007 3:26pm
Ok, here is my analysis of the monthly chart, which I will follow up on with the weekly and daily charts. On the monthly chart, we had previously made a new high at 251.10 or so- this was three months ago. This high was directly follwed by a new low of the 219 area. I believe this happened because we WERE in an uptrend on the monthly charts and the high was the top of the fifth wave upwards. It was directly followed by the new low, as this was the first wave of a correctional movement. With this, after the new low of 219, we have now moved to the second wave upwards of the correctional movement. If one were to follow fibonacci retracement levels, we are already at the 61.8 level. I feel that, due to this fact, we will see a higher price, but only slightly, before the bounce away from the fib level, which will move us into the 3rd and final correctional wave. This third and final wave, as Karmostaji and others have accounted for in their analysis, should bring us to a new low, which will be at least below the 219 area. I will personally not try and account for the exact price that it will succumb to, as I dont know. I do know, however, that through my experience trading, the third wave does tend to be larger than the previous two, which is why I will say that I believe this will bring us to below 219.
Where do I feel we are going to see the end of this current move upwards? Based on my analysis, I feel that we will see the top at around the 241.50 area. This is because the fib level has already been touched and I feel that we will see a small move upwards before the bounce is created by new selling pressure. As Pipchick said, we could quite possbily see this new high by the beginning of next week. Any thoughts or comments? Oh and thank you Pipchick for sparking some interest.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #37,485
  • Oct 5, 2007 3:27pm Oct 5, 2007 3:27pm
Quoting Zoran
As long as 238.80 holds today, I'll be satisfied - the bulls can rethink their positions over the weekend - I just hope they don't bite their nails off. The resistance at 238.80 is strong and they obviously don't realise that.

I can't see 244 being hit until we revisit 235/234 (my target) - that's where they can collect more bulls to possibly break through 238.80. Now if the bears are smart, they will cause a panic (maybe next week) and scare them all away (i.e. bulls sitting at 235 to 227). Otherwise we could see 244 (and then 247).

I forecast this setup 5 weeks ago. See link (we are at the top of the last green line)

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...87#post1560987
I dont pay much attention to bulls and bears panicing. I really dont even know how we can predict a panic. I just trade what the techs say.
  • #37,486
  • Oct 5, 2007 3:30pm Oct 5, 2007 3:30pm
Quoting ag9897
Few hours left before market close....

anybody have any idea for next coming Monday?
I'm still new with G/U and G/Y pairs.
Look at this image

Now turn your monitor upsidedown

The thumb is pointing in the correct direction
  • #37,487
  • Oct 5, 2007 3:31pm Oct 5, 2007 3:31pm
Quoting Zoran
Look at this image

Now turn your monitor upsidedown

The thumb is pointing the the correct direction
Does that mean the g/j and g/u are going down Zor?lol
  • #37,488
  • Oct 5, 2007 3:31pm Oct 5, 2007 3:31pm
Quoting Zoran
As long as 238.80 holds today, I'll be satisfied - the bulls can rethink their positions over the weekend - I just hope they don't bite their nails off. The resistance at 238.80 is strong and they obviously don't realise that.

I can't see 244 being hit until we revisit 235/234 (my target) - that's where they can collect more bulls to possibly break through 238.80. Now if the bears are smart, they will cause a panic (maybe next week) and scare them all away (i.e. bulls sitting at 235 to 227). Otherwise we could see 244 (and then 247).

I forecast this setup 5 weeks ago. See link (we are at the top of the last green line)

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...87#post1560987
Hi Zoran, I am with you absolutely in your analysis. I cant see 244 being hit directly, because I feel that more selling pressusre is about to present itself. I can, however see 241 being shown as the top before this pressure begins to take hold. As for your forecast of the situation, I am amazed. I hope to have the diligence as yourself one day. I have quite a bit to learn as I am still a young man, but I feel that being a part of this is going to push me to being the person that I am intended to be. Thank you for the reply
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #37,489
  • Oct 5, 2007 3:34pm Oct 5, 2007 3:34pm
Quoting PipChick
I dont pay much attention to bulls and bears panicing. I really dont even know how we can predict a panic. I just trade what the techs say.
Agreed to an extent, although the price is telling us what is happening to the consensus of people in the market. Price is, after all, only a psychological level as to waht consumers are thinking of the current situation. I read an article on here that states "The market is always technical".
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #37,490
  • Oct 5, 2007 3:36pm Oct 5, 2007 3:36pm
Quoting PipChick
I dont pay much attention to bulls and bears panicing. I really dont even know how we can predict a panic. I just trade what the techs say.
I just make up little stories in my head about the chart patterns and what needs to occur to get certain things moving. If the smart money is now selling to the bulls then they may need to create a panic to get to 221 otherwise they will only get to 234. I wouldn't be surprised if there is some "doom and gloom" news next week (or the week after).
  • #37,491
  • Oct 5, 2007 3:37pm Oct 5, 2007 3:37pm
Quoting PipChick
Does that mean the g/j and g/u are going down Zor?lol
Aha, that's my analysis
  • #37,492
  • Oct 5, 2007 3:38pm Oct 5, 2007 3:38pm
i think there will be a gap during opening and then market will cont with the correction pattern....
  • #37,493
  • Oct 5, 2007 3:38pm Oct 5, 2007 3:38pm
Quoting Zoran
Aha, that's my analysis
lol..somehow I knew that.
  • #37,494
  • Oct 5, 2007 3:40pm Oct 5, 2007 3:40pm
Its pretty simple..lol
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  • #37,495
  • Oct 5, 2007 3:43pm Oct 5, 2007 3:43pm
Quoting mike w
Hi Zoran, I am with you absolutely in your analysis. I cant see 244 being hit directly, because I feel that more selling pressusre is about to present itself. I can, however see 241 being shown as the top before this pressure begins to take hold. As for your forecast of the situation, I am amazed. I hope to have the diligence as yourself one day. I have quite a bit to learn as I am still a young man, but I feel that being a part of this is going to push me to being the person that I am intended to be. Thank you for the reply
No problems. This resistance had taken two weeks to build. If the bulls think they can break it in an afternoon, they will soon see my boot kicking their backside!
  • #37,496
  • Oct 5, 2007 3:43pm Oct 5, 2007 3:43pm
Quoting Zoran
No problems. This resistance had taken two weeks to build. If the bulls think they can break it in an afternoon, they will soon see my boot kicking their backside!
lolol..no violence!!!
  • #37,497
  • Oct 5, 2007 3:48pm Oct 5, 2007 3:48pm
If the 76.4 retracement is at the 243 area what is so special about the 241 area is it adjacent to the upper trendline ?
  • #37,498
  • Oct 5, 2007 3:50pm Oct 5, 2007 3:50pm
I painted my chart with simple colours so even a child can read it!
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  • #37,499
  • Oct 5, 2007 3:52pm Oct 5, 2007 3:52pm
Quoting Zoran
I painted my chart with simple colours so even a child can read it!
Truth be told, a child can usually read charts better than an adult. We, as adults, think too much.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #37,500
  • Oct 5, 2007 4:00pm Oct 5, 2007 4:00pm
Some charts I posted earlier this week.
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