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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #37,461
  • Oct 5, 2007 1:09pm Oct 5, 2007 1:09pm
Okay, I have the setting exactly as in the aus 15 minute document !

Now where am I missing here .
  • #37,462
  • Oct 5, 2007 1:16pm Oct 5, 2007 1:16pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Syafi
Okay, I have the setting exactly as in the aus 15 minute document !

Now where am I missing here .

Calm down, take the weekend to read both threads, the settings are different for both systems. i have posted the documents in both threads with all the info. download them and 90% of your questions will be answered.

then watch the this thread and see how to use them.

best of pips to all
  • #37,463
  • Oct 5, 2007 1:21pm Oct 5, 2007 1:21pm
I only apply 15minute strategy on the chart..
So i only read the 15 minute strategy ....

and as i see it. the setting is the same as on the doc file, as it is where i copied my setting from.
  • #37,464
  • Oct 5, 2007 1:30pm Oct 5, 2007 1:30pm
Significant resistance where fan & retracement fibs meet @ 238.94.
Since there's less than 4 hours left on this bar, a break of this lvl would be interesting for continuing long-trend.

Attached 30M too
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: hj1.gif Size: 16 KB
Measure twice, cut once
  • #37,465
  • Oct 5, 2007 1:38pm Oct 5, 2007 1:38pm
Let me quote here an email from Peter Catranis, forex fund manager. It pretty well clarifies dollar's position in market at the moment. Surely dollar will make moves to positive direction, but the overall direction seems to be down, down, down...

Sorry about the length.

BR,
R

Commentary

Over the past 5 years the U.S. dollar has declined 50% versus the Euro and 28% against it's weighted basket. The S&P 500 up 22% in USD , in Euros -19% , commodity prices have more than doubled, yet inflation was reported a total of +13.78%? http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl

The dollars decline has impacted the performance and true value of all USD denominated investments. Good news for non-US based foreign currency accounts, bad for US dollar accounts, the dollar is expected to drop further in 2007 see http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=al2iZRKZXmCw

The US is insolvent, that is the conclusion of 12/15/2006 Treasury/OMB report entitled Financial Report of the United States Government that was quietly slipped out on a Friday 12/15/06, deep in the holiday season, with little fanfare. In his accompanying statement to the report, David Walker, Comptroller of the US, stated that the GAO had found so many significant material deficiencies in the government’s accounting systems that the GAO was “unable to express an opinion” on the financial statements of the US government.

U.S. government’s total reported liabilities, net social insurance commitments, and other fiscal exposures continue to grow and now totals approximately $50 trillion, representing approximately four times the Nation’s total output (GDP) in fiscal year 2006, up from about $20 trillion, or two times GDP in fiscal year 2000. Our national debt has gone from 653 Billion on 1976 to 8.6 trillion in 2006 , again it's only 1200% I guess it's nothing to worry about, sourcehttp://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdhisto4.htm

We currently are experiencing the worst US fiscal mismanagement in US history. http://www.usatoday.com/news/washing...ne-cover_x.htm

 The US budget, trade defects have doubled, budget deficit relative to GDP doubled as well http://www.edrc.am/user_files/254.pdf?ID=21

No matter how you try to candy coat it nearly 9 trillion in national debt is just irresponsible and ugly for a debt clock see http://www.treasuries.com/history.htm ,
http://www.merkfund.com/money/authors/richardbenson/dollars-on-sale.html The official debt stands at $8.507 trillion or 65% of (nominal) GDP but when we add in our “off balance sheet” items the national debt stands at $50 + trillion or 400%+ of GDP , a decent read is posted on http://drmss.com/wordpress/?cat

For a chart on 1961-2006 budget deficits see http://www.uuforum.org/deficit.htm anyway you try to twist this again ugly. The US budget deficit in 2006 is equal to our national debt in 1971 http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdhisto4.htm

Nearly every central bank on the planet has been burnt by the declining dollar see http://www.catranis.com/links_banks.htm for links to most major central banks.

China Malaysia, Singapore and Petrol countries ( previously the larger dollar buyers ) are now net sellers, moving away from US dollars and out of US treasuries. Lower demand will generate additional downward momentum. Increasing money supply without disclosure will further pressure the dollar to the downside and US dollar creditability and demand for dollars and debt will further deteriorate.

China for example is changing from a 100% US dollar peg to multi currency peg, see story on http://news.ft.com/cms/s/f39fa8e4-7e...0779e2340.html Equals large dollar and US treasury sales. Singapore, Malaysia and now Russia and others are no longer pegging their currencies to US dollars, they've started selling US dollars and treasuries to rebalance.

The Fed is no longer publishing money supply http://bankdersysrisk.blogspot.com/2...-tracking.html along with potential Implications.By Eliminating M3 we won't know how much liquidity the Fed is pumping into the system which by any definition equals lack of transparency , inflation and deteriorating creditability. No longer publishing money supply is the first step to "monetize debt" by borrowing from the US Federal Reserve system, which is nominally under private control but now seems to be just another part of the US government. The government sells its bonds to the Federal Reserve, which creates new bank deposits out of thin air and uses them to pay for the bonds. This process creates new money and expands the money supply: hence it is called "monetizing" the government's debt. For the basics of how this is done see http://experts.about.com/q/2301/2460065.htm A great book on the fed is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Cre..._Jekyll_Island another http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/094...lance&n=283155

The US Federal Reserve chairman sees inflation and dollar devaluation as the only out. By lowering the value of the dollar, it lowers the constant value of the US debt. If the dollar declines another 50% the true value of a 30 year treasury will also been cut in half. A declining dollar any way you twist it equals inflation , higher prices equals higher tax revenues collected. End result lower true or constant debt and higher tax revenue. Deflation would have the exact opposite impact, higher constant debt, declining prices and tax revenue. The governments choice inflation = lower debt, higher tax revenue or, deflation higher debt lower tax revenue. The US potentially choosing deflation wouldn't even merit a debate.

The last time the US had significant deflation the dollar was backed by gold, currency values were fixed, Federal income tax and debt were entirely new. Deflation is an impossible scenario with our current monetary structure. A good red on this is the US Fed Chairman's speech Deflation: Making Sure "It" Doesn't Happen Here Proudly posted on the FED'S website Remarks by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke http://www.federal.gov/boarddocs/spe...2002/20021121/Deflation: Making Sure "It" Doesn't Happen Here I particularly like this Bernanke quote " Like gold, U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation."

Deteriorating creditability globally is not limited to US foreign policy. The CPI as reported by the bureau of labor and statistics has gone up by only 13.78% in the last 5 years.... Use their numbers click on http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl on the BLS.gov website http://www.bls.gov/ and consumer prices unchanged in November 06 How can anyone believe these numbers considering the price increases in the chart above? Nice to know the guys at Arthur Anderson and Enron found jobs , they now work for the BLS.gov . 10 year Treasury "inflation protected securities" are paying 3 3/8% taxable ( yes this is a real number ) http://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit..._cpi012007.htm
The US is continuing with it's reckless fiscal policy see stories on http://www.americanprogress.org/issu...02/b32743.html the Senate Budget Committee website http://www.senate.gov/~budget/democratic/woasarchive.htmlhttp://www.senate.gov/~dayton/news/details.cfm?id=228751 and http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdhisto4.htm

An investment in US equities was nearly the worst performer above, foreign investors have experienced losses calculated in their home currency and in my opinion will liquidate on any dollar really after all who's really making the serious money on Wall Street ?
Goldman Awards Blankfein Record $53.4 Million Bonus http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aParh4cwIdL0
Lehman's Fuld Gets 31% Raise to $34.5 Millionhttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aZxa58XLDOuA
Morgan Stanley's Mack Gets Record $40 Million Bonus http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a6my7bTOmk0c
Bonuses for European Bankers May Be Diminished by Dollar Tumble http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a.PGCveNT6eE
I personally believe that non US investors have just about had it with US stocks trading with hold and hope long only strategies.

The list goes on and on... I'll trade the market long or short but in my 30 year career ( see http://www.catranis.com/career.htm ) I have never seen such reckless economic policy. The good news is this will create tremendous opportunity. I believe It's time to consider setting up a small account in alternate currency with a non-US institution. If I'm, wrong, the impact will be minimal, based on historical performance we should still perform, if I'm right everything will be in place to pull the trigger on a larger scale.

Peter Catranis



Quoting markam
That makes no sense. The market had been pricing in another rate cut for weeks. This news should have immediately reversed that trend. Obviously, China or another nation started dumping, thinking they could unload some dollars into strength. So far, it has failed.

If the dollar doesn't strengthen, it will be a very bad sign. Basically, it means the dollar is going to fall no matter what the economic news from the US.
  • #37,466
  • Edited 2:18pm Oct 5, 2007 1:45pm | Edited 2:18pm
Quoting Rocroy
Let me quote here an email from Peter Catranis, forex fund manager. It pretty well clarifies dollar's position in market at the moment. Surely dollar will make moves to positive direction, but the overall direction seems to be down, down, down...

Sorry about the length.

BR,
R

Commentary

Over the past 5 years the U.S. dollar has declined 50% versus the Euro and 28% against it's weighted basket. The S&P 500 up 22% in USD , in Euros -19% , commodity prices have more than doubled, yet inflation was reported a total of +13.78%? http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.plThe dollars decline has impacted the performance and true value of all USD denominated investments. Good news for non-US based foreign currency accounts, bad for US dollar accounts, the dollar is expected to drop further in 2007 see http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=al2iZRKZXmCw
...........................
.....................................
..................................................
The list goes on and on... I'll trade the market long or short but in my 30 year career ( see http://www.catranis.com/career.htm ) I have never seen such reckless economic policy. The good news is this will create tremendous opportunity. I believe It's time to consider setting up a small account in alternate currency with a non-US institution. If I'm, wrong, the impact will be minimal, based on historical performance we should still perform, if I'm right everything will be in place to pull the trigger on a larger scale.

Peter Catranis

NOW I'M FEELING GUILTY....
reading this report before MARKAM.
I don't see his name on the board.

  • #37,467
  • Oct 5, 2007 1:47pm Oct 5, 2007 1:47pm
Cool .. see many of you got a lotta pips while am working on my daily job .. kudos .. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Hope not many or none tried to pick the top and got burned, if there is any I probably can think of one http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
j/k .. have a nice week end all.
  • #37,468
  • Oct 5, 2007 1:49pm Oct 5, 2007 1:49pm
Perhaps this should go in the News section of FF and just post a link here to save space.
  • #37,469
  • Oct 5, 2007 1:53pm Oct 5, 2007 1:53pm
Can this go up any higher?
Losers Complain, Winners Train! Utah
  • #37,470
  • Oct 5, 2007 2:10pm Oct 5, 2007 2:10pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Mightypip
Can this go up any higher?
Yes - why not,
when - who knows
do i care - no, no open trades
dose it matter - no, trade what your charts tell you.

have a good weekend all.
  • #37,471
  • Oct 5, 2007 2:25pm Oct 5, 2007 2:25pm
A point of view of the pair by Dailyfx, suggesting at downword move but not before reaching The Fibonacci zone of 238.95-244.29 (61.8%-78.6% of 251.10-219.30) is where the reversal is expected to occur.

Make your own opinion after reading @ http://www.dailyfx.com/story/tophead...605302766.html

P.S : Almost in line what have been suggested by Karmo and Zoran all along on this thread
Success has a Thousand Fathers.
  • #37,472
  • Oct 5, 2007 2:39pm Oct 5, 2007 2:39pm
Quoting intercumbiz
i need help on if i should stop my long postion now that is going short, and pls i need help on how to know precise time when the signers will show up, most of the time i come in late to it, is there nothing like an alarm for this
Sorry for sounding ignorant, but what is signers?
  • #37,473
  • Oct 5, 2007 2:49pm Oct 5, 2007 2:49pm
Quoting kayman
A point of view of the pair by Dailyfx, suggesting at downword move but not before reaching The Fibonacci zone of 238.95-244.29 (61.8%-78.6% of 251.10-219.30) is where the reversal is expected to occur.

Make your own opinion after reading @ http://www.dailyfx.com/story/tophead...605302766.html

P.S : Almost in line what have been suggested by Karmo and Zoran all along on this thread
I think that you are correct, although I personally doubt it could climb to as high as 244 before the drop. My reasoning for this is the fact that most traders are going to be scaling in as short beginning at 239. This, in my eyes, will create the push downwards way before 244, I personally feel that 241 will be somewhat of a top, as this area is also an area of resistance to begin with. Any thoughts at all?
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #37,474
  • Oct 5, 2007 2:55pm Oct 5, 2007 2:55pm
Quoting PipChick
Sorry for sounding ignorant, but what is signers?
i think he meant signals
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #37,475
  • Oct 5, 2007 2:58pm Oct 5, 2007 2:58pm
Quoting mike w
I think that you are correct, although I personally doubt it could climb to as high as 244 before the drop. My reasoning for this is the fact that most traders are going to be scaling in as short beginning at 239. This, in my eyes, will create the push downwards way before 244, I personally feel that 241 will be somewhat of a top, as this area is also an area of resistance to begin with. Any thoughts at all?
I think once the daily 61.8 at 238.96 is breached we will target 239.88 and further long from there. Thats not to say we wont have a nice size retrace before all of that happens so Karm and the other shorties can collect their pips first and give us longs a chance to load more longs. I have a feeling next week will be a good week for all. I do not doubt that we will hit 241.00 early next week.
  • #37,476
  • Oct 5, 2007 2:58pm Oct 5, 2007 2:58pm
Quoting moneymagnet
i think he meant signals
ok..Im sorry. Thats what I get for not reading all the posts..lol
  • #37,477
  • Oct 5, 2007 3:08pm Oct 5, 2007 3:08pm
The more I look at these charts, the more worried I get about the short position. Especially if the 61.8 on the daily is breached.I know a lot of people think it is setting up a h/s (on the weekly)but it already sat up one with the rt shoulder being at 235.14 which it violated. Now it MAY try to set up another rt shoulder at this 61.8 but if it doesnt I definately see 241.00-241.50 early next week. Shorts may be very risky without a tight stop. Just my opinion. Not to mention the daily chart is extremely bullish right now. Sunday could change that but Im not too sure it will.
  • #37,478
  • Oct 5, 2007 3:09pm Oct 5, 2007 3:09pm
Quoting PipChick
I think once the daily 61.8 at 238.96 is breached we will target 239.88 and further long from there. Thats not to say we wont have a nice size retrace before all of that happens so Karm and the other shorties can collect their pips first and give us longs a chance to load more longs. I have a feeling next week will be a good week for all. I do not doubt that we will hit 241.00 early next week.
Excellent, thank you for giving me something to think about. I am going to look into my charts now and see if I can tap into your analysis as well. Afterwards, I will post back with my own personal findings and tell what I may think of the market. Thanks again!
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #37,479
  • Oct 5, 2007 3:16pm Oct 5, 2007 3:16pm
Quoting mike w
Excellent, thank you for giving me something to think about. I am going to look into my charts now and see if I can tap into your analysis as well. Afterwards, I will post back with my own personal findings and tell what I may think of the market. Thanks again!
Youre welcome Mike. I will post a chart in a minute
  • #37,480
  • Oct 5, 2007 3:21pm Oct 5, 2007 3:21pm
Oops, duplicate
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