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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #36,981
  • Oct 4, 2007 2:03pm Oct 4, 2007 2:03pm
The bear party is becoming exhausted. I will announce the official end of the party shortly . . .
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #36,982
  • Oct 4, 2007 2:03pm Oct 4, 2007 2:03pm
wow..1600....are you saying that this is the top range? can you pls share the idea why you said so?thanks for the reply....

p/s: i'm new and wish to learn more
  • #36,983
  • Oct 4, 2007 2:07pm Oct 4, 2007 2:07pm
Quoting let'erpip
I have what is probably a silly question (hopefully not), and maybe Karmo as the fib man, you could answer it. I've noticed that the market retraces after London close. It almost always traces at least 23.6%. You have said that this pair likes 50%. What I'm wondering is there some way to "know" or "predict" how far it will retrace? Thanks.
This pair indeed loves retracing 50% most of the time, price fell early today, that was just a 50% retracement + daily 5sma and it bounced right up. From this last push up, the 50% fibo is at 237.
Hmm, it depends on how strong it has pushed in a direction, the stronger it has gone in a direction, the stronger the pullback will be. Plus I look for candlestick patterns at the fibo levels (mostly 1hr and 4hr chart) coz on smaller TF's they could be fake at times.
For example the daily GJ chart it has been uptrend for several days and whenever the correction/retracement starts, it should do a good 50% retracement which will take us to 234 area.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #36,984
  • Oct 4, 2007 2:08pm Oct 4, 2007 2:08pm
Quoting alanz76
wow..1600....are you saying that this is the top range? can you pls share the idea why you said so?thanks for the reply....

p/s: i'm new and wish to learn more
As I understand in a joking manner he mentioned that 'idealy' he love to have 1600 points TP........not suggesting its gonna happen
Success has a Thousand Fathers.
  • #36,985
  • Oct 4, 2007 2:09pm Oct 4, 2007 2:09pm
Quoting Geppy
The bear party is becoming exhausted. I will announce the official end of the party shortly . . .
It might end at 236.85-237, fibo level from last up swing on hourly chart
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #36,986
  • Oct 4, 2007 2:09pm Oct 4, 2007 2:09pm
Quoting karmostaji
so you think this is the top? and downtrend starts from here?
For a mid-term trader, this level is good enough. My ideal short level is high 238 region but will it get there? I have my doubts - it seems someone with deep pockets is holding price away from 238.
  • #36,987
  • Oct 4, 2007 2:13pm Oct 4, 2007 2:13pm
Quoting Zoran
For a mid-term trader, this level is good enough. My ideal short level is high 238 region but will it get there? I have my doubts - it seems someone with deep pockets is holding price away from 238.
I see, but I would like one more push up and then hell can break loose. Tomorrow is friday and NFP so who knows what will happen.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #36,988
  • Oct 4, 2007 2:13pm Oct 4, 2007 2:13pm
Thanks, Karm. I really like fibs, but need to understand they work better.
  • #36,989
  • Oct 4, 2007 2:14pm Oct 4, 2007 2:14pm
Next support 100SMA 15m
  • #36,990
  • Oct 4, 2007 2:15pm Oct 4, 2007 2:15pm
Quoting let'erpip
Thanks, Karm. I really like fibs, but need to understand they work better.
Keep practicing with them, practice makes perfect.

On the hourly, draw the fib from 236.14 to 237.83 and let's see together if it will bounce back up from any of the fib levels, I'm expecting 50% or 61.8%
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #36,991
  • Oct 4, 2007 2:17pm Oct 4, 2007 2:17pm
The 4-hour candlestick patterns seem to suggest railroad tracks, which could mean a big fall in price. Is this correct?
  • #36,992
  • Oct 4, 2007 2:19pm Oct 4, 2007 2:19pm
Quoting let'erpip
The 4-hour candlestick patterns seem to suggest railroad tracks, which could mean a big fall in price. Is this correct?
4hr candles differ from broker to another, plus what do you mean by 'railroad tracks'? never heard of such pattern, post your chart up
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #36,993
  • Oct 4, 2007 2:20pm Oct 4, 2007 2:20pm

i think the retracement will be in 236.70 before decide to go up or proceed down...what do u guys think?

"Analysis Is Hard But Trade Is Easy"
  • #36,994
  • Oct 4, 2007 2:20pm Oct 4, 2007 2:20pm
Quoting Se[V]eN

i think the retracement will be in 236.70 before decide to go up or proceed down...what do u guys think?

that is close to a TL on my chart and my 61.8% fibo, so yeah it's possible
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #36,995
  • Oct 4, 2007 2:23pm Oct 4, 2007 2:23pm
Quoting kayman
As I understand in a joking manner he mentioned that 'idealy' he love to have 1600 points TP........not suggesting its gonna happen
Many of us have been calling for a reasonably large fall in this thread, even Auslanco. It's just a matter of when and at what level.
  • #36,996
  • Oct 4, 2007 2:23pm Oct 4, 2007 2:23pm
....as long it is green pips ...i shall wait
  • #36,997
  • Oct 4, 2007 2:27pm Oct 4, 2007 2:27pm
Railroad tracks, from what I understand, are when a green candle and red candle are side-by-side, are approximately the same size, and occur at the end of a long run up or down. I use IFX charts, by the way. I also use their pivots (under indicators). I find pivots very helpful. Combined with fibs, they make seeing support and resistance much easier.
  • #36,998
  • Oct 4, 2007 2:28pm Oct 4, 2007 2:28pm
Quoting alanz76
wow..1600....are you saying that this is the top range? can you pls share the idea why you said so?thanks for the reply....

p/s: i'm new and wish to learn more
This is a chart I posted here over a month ago.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...87#post1560987
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...76#post1565976

Summer got in the way and we started ranging but that's over. We are approaching the higher level of that chart (just before the big drop). The top is 238.80 but I'm not sure it will get that high. So I'm saying anywhere between here and there should be a reasonable short level. My target is 221, which is conservative.
  • #36,999
  • Oct 4, 2007 2:40pm Oct 4, 2007 2:40pm
thanks again...
  • #37,000
  • Oct 4, 2007 2:43pm Oct 4, 2007 2:43pm
Here is daily chart.

The purple box is the range that got in the way and currently sits as support. Now we are heading back up.

My ideal short is somewhere in the 238 region - close to where the blue pattern completes.

The smaller sandy/brown box is where the resistance lives and though it is smaller (than the purple box), it could be smart enough to scare away the support and cause a panic - perhaps when price returns to 234 or 235 for the second time.

So that is a simplistic view of how I see things.
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