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Harmonic Wave Journal

  • #1,121
  • Oct 3, 2007 12:14pm Oct 3, 2007 12:14pm
Since we're posting painful things - my EURUSD count and reason why I mentioned 1.4015 - > .382 of the impulse and a=c abc end for either A or 4 of the III wave, then another push up...considering I've only counted to III so far this has some scary implications...but I could be wrong and it really was V - which would put in an absolute top for quite a while. Right? Wrong? Traex?

I expect it was "only" a III, especially if GBPUSD is to make any sort of higher ground again...else we'd need EURGBP to fall insanely to get GBPUSD anywhere and I can't see it move for long without USD weakness.

Oh and could it be the III or V, either, was an extended wave - that last push feels like "one too far"? Not sure how those extensions look...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_031007_big_count.gif Size: 21 KB
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #1,122
  • Oct 3, 2007 12:15pm Oct 3, 2007 12:15pm
Wave 4 just doesn't seem complete to me,
I am always cautious of the sucker trade.
I have a buy order in at 2.0315 which is where
I see wave 4 completion at. Current price is 2.0344.
I found the guy who keeps losing me money. Its "ME" SHOOT HIM!
  • #1,123
  • Oct 3, 2007 12:23pm Oct 3, 2007 12:23pm
Quoting SeekingLight
Could be it will take until tomorrow to resolve with a surprise from the BOE or SOMETHING...only thing that worries me to no end is that I see a correction on EURUSD down to at least 1.4015 as very plausible - and how's GBPUSD gonna survive that? EURGBP will have to shed a lot of tears to keep us stable...
Alright, looks like the wave count is blown again. That cable long could be treated as a goner, 0.8 pip left from being hit. Now Cable is making a really messy correction (maybe). 50% correction of last impulse is at around 2.0300 level. It's the next downside target imho.
Now I heard some people saying that this month EUR/USD would reach 1.3800. I see monthly candle. Current upper shadow is 6 pips long only, first time ever since 1989 (well, at least in FXDD MT4 chart). So it's big chance we'll see this pair making new high again this month. Oke, if I'm wrong then so be it, I'm not the market anyway lol.
Tomorrow is ECB and BoE interest rate statement (and guess what, Friday is our daddy time, the NFP!), let's brace ourselves.
Tra-X
  • #1,124
  • Oct 3, 2007 12:27pm Oct 3, 2007 12:27pm
Quoting Traex
Alright, looks like the wave count is blown again. That cable long could be treated as a goner, 0.8 pip left from being hit. Now Cable is making a really messy correction (maybe). 50% correction of last impulse is at around 2.0300 level. It's the next downside target imho.
Now I heard some people saying that this month EUR/USD would reach 1.3800. I see monthly candle. Current upper shadow is 6 pips long only, first time ever since 1989 (well, at least in FXDD MT4 chart). So it's big chance we'll see this pair making new high again this month. Oke, if I'm wrong then so be it, I'm not the market anyway lol.
Tomorrow is ECB and BoE interest rate statement (and guess what, Friday is our daddy time, the NFP!), let's brace ourselves.
Who is saying 1.3800? cause I also heard people saying 1.4500..
Forex is not easy!
  • #1,125
  • Oct 3, 2007 12:36pm Oct 3, 2007 12:36pm
Quoting AhmedFouad
Who is saying 1.3800? cause I also heard people saying 1.4500..
Well I say it has room until about 1.4800. Nobody knows, unless he/she has a time machine.
Tra-X
  • #1,126
  • Oct 3, 2007 12:44pm Oct 3, 2007 12:44pm
EURO

1.4110 is 61.8% of Wave A (1.4282-1.4138), if this is a C wave.
Went long at 1.4119.
I found the guy who keeps losing me money. Its "ME" SHOOT HIM!
  • #1,127
  • Oct 3, 2007 12:49pm Oct 3, 2007 12:49pm
1.4110 also represents daily low support, but I am cautious.. If that would be the case, we should see a stronger bounce towards 1.4150-60 now it's just near lows.. so who cares, It might take stops below 1.4110 until 1.4070-60 where another support emerges (this is my expected ultimate downside)
Forex is not easy!
  • #1,128
  • Oct 3, 2007 1:10pm Oct 3, 2007 1:10pm
Quoting Traex
Alright, looks like the wave count is blown again.

Now Cable is making a really messy correction (maybe). 50% correction of last impulse is at around 2.0300 level. It's the next downside target imho.
Okay...
Well I just read up a bit and I have to admit - I should have read this BEFORE placing any longs higher up / in between, but oh well.

Here goes: assuming the labeling I did on the chart is correct, then I am using the following reasoning to estimate a target for 4:

Quote
As soon as wave 3 is finished you can draw a channel by connecting the end of wave 1 and wave 3 with a trend line and drawing a parallel line from the end of wave 2. In this way you can project a target for wave 4. Keep in mind that normally the base line from wave 2 will be broken slightly by the price action of wave 4. The base line serves as a minimum target for wave 4. If wave 4 doesn’t come near the base line at all, this is a sign of a very strong trend. You are probably still in wave 3 or you should get ready for a blow off in wave 5


This would be the following - and us having spent a lot of time and effort being silly in the interim:
Attached Image
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #1,129
  • Oct 3, 2007 1:16pm Oct 3, 2007 1:16pm
I am not so sure about Cable, but EURUSD most probably targetting a low at 1.4050 before making new highs.. we know this move is corrective but where to long LOL
Forex is not easy!
  • #1,130
  • Edited Oct 4, 2007 12:40am Oct 3, 2007 11:47pm | Edited Oct 4, 2007 12:40am
Opportunity #G48/07 (re-entry)
GBP/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 2.0291
Stop (initial): 2.0241

End of subwave A or 4 (?).

Update 1: 0.8 pip from being stopped out. Need a miracle to get into safety. Set TP1 at 2.0405 for +43.
Update 2: Stopped out for -69. Re-entry at 2.0291, initial stop at 2.0241. S/L tightened to 2.0286 (guarantees -5). Man Cable never seems to stop going down.
Tra-X
  • #1,131
  • Oct 4, 2007 12:30am Oct 4, 2007 12:30am
Quoting Traex
Opportunity #G48/07 (re-entry)
GBP/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 2.0291
Stop (initial): 2.0241

End of subwave A or 4 (?).

Update 1: 0.8 pip from being stopped out. Need a miracle to get into safety. Set TP1 at 2.0405 for +43.
Update 2: Stopped out for -69. Re-entry at 2.0291, initial stop at 2.0241.
2.03 is the 50% fib from move up 25 Sept, your stop is bang on the 62% level. Lets hope the UK interest statement is positive for cable.
  • #1,132
  • Oct 4, 2007 2:43am Oct 4, 2007 2:43am
Hmmm, diving and diving and diving.........
  • #1,133
  • Oct 4, 2007 2:54am Oct 4, 2007 2:54am
Quoting Hery
Hmmm, diving and diving and diving.........
Hopefully not for long, positive divergences all over the place on 30 and 15 min charts.
  • #1,134
  • Oct 4, 2007 3:01am Oct 4, 2007 3:01am
We should be careful not to turn this into the cable thread part II, everyone. Please.

Nearing .382 / .50 and I'm starting to wonder what correction this is. Will look for a long setup near those fibs but am a big distraught we have lost that rising 4h trendline - although this has happened before right before key reversals (it happened for me on daily EURUSD at 1.34 - or maybe I just can't draw trendlines properly).


Running out of room if this is indeed to be a Wave 4 - no?

Marked my "last resort" area for wave 4.

My biggest problem currently is that I expect the USD to rise some more..
Attached Image
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #1,135
  • Oct 4, 2007 4:00am Oct 4, 2007 4:00am
HI
well the count I posted some days ago will be in place if intrest rate cut...
and we may see 800-1000 pip in big wave C down...however nowadays things are happening unpredictable so I myself use price action for enter the market.
another worry is carry trades which may broke with a cut in interest rate and things get even more complicated........
  • #1,136
  • Edited 5:10am Oct 4, 2007 4:15am | Edited 5:10am
Opportunity #E40/07
EUR/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 1.4114
Stop (initial): 1.4074

End of subwave 1 or A (?).

Update 1: Set TP1 at 1.4150 for +36. S/L will move to 1.4110 once TP1 is hit.
Update 2: S/L tightened to 1.4092 (guarantees -22).
Tra-X
  • #1,137
  • Oct 4, 2007 4:17am Oct 4, 2007 4:17am
Opportunity #G48/07 (re-entry)
GBP/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 2.0291
Stop (initial): 2.0241

End of subwave A or 4 (?).

Update 1: 0.8 pip from being stopped out. Need a miracle to get into safety. Set TP1 at 2.0405 for +43.
Update 2: Stopped out for -69. Re-entry at 2.0291, initial stop at 2.0241. S/L tightened to 2.0286 (guarantees -5). Man Cable never seems to stop going down.
Update 3: Stopped again for -15. Interest rate news is near so prolly I'm staying out for a while.

Total gain: -84
Tra-X
  • #1,138
  • Oct 4, 2007 6:22am Oct 4, 2007 6:22am
Quoting SeekingLight
Okay...
Well I just read up a bit and I have to admit - I should have read this BEFORE placing any longs higher up / in between, but oh well.

Here goes: assuming the labeling I did on the chart is correct, then I am using the following reasoning to estimate a target for 4:

This would be the following - and us having spent a lot of time and effort being silly in the interim:

Chart update(left unchanged, this is really how it filled out...notice TL and fib behavior).

So. Finally in 5?
Attached Image
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #1,139
  • Oct 4, 2007 6:49am Oct 4, 2007 6:49am
Fuhh, my possition is saved... for now... I moved S/L very deep...
It was very very risky..... We will se..... 5 started or B???
  • #1,140
  • Oct 4, 2007 6:54am Oct 4, 2007 6:54am
Quoting king_a
HI
well the count I posted some days ago will be in place if intrest rate cut...
and we may see 800-1000 pip in big wave C down...however nowadays things are happening unpredictable so I myself use price action for enter the market.
another worry is carry trades which may broke with a cut in interest rate and things get even more complicated........
sorry if my first post here sounds rude..
we're all here just simple to read n' learn from traex's journal, not to mix it with others
i know your counts prolly right, but better just keep to yourself or you can make a new thread.
this is his journal and let it be unless you ask for it

rgrds
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