Very low I would say.. The december short GILT futures are around 9400.. suggesting the market thinks rates will rates stay around where they are now, with a small chance of a rise before december. Short GILT prices are usually a bit lower than the BOE rates.
Thanks. Some "rumors" are going around that their will be a surprise cut of 50 bp. Anyone else heard these rumors?
Ignored
Frank,
To be frank, I'm surprised there's been such a small response to your thread. What's become of the newstraders???
Rumor or not, it wouldn't be the first time the Bank of England changed rates whilst the world slept. The Brits often follow US behavior....during the recent "near prime" loan crisis, the British equivalent of CountryWide Mortgage took a similar hit, followed by banks writing down their loan portfolios. I think one should prepare for the "unexpected" as I wouldn't be surprised to see at least a quarter basis point cut.
From my observation on the last 6 "on-hold" decisions, I noticed that GBPUSD drops at the very 1st minute; only 1 (Apr 5) did we see a reversal on the 2nd minute - the other 5 kept dropping steadily.
ps.. I was wanting to upload my historic chart in macromedia SWF format, unfortunately, FF dont allow SWF format. Merlin can you allow posting of SWF files and have it auto play as well? SWF dont consume much space. At any rate, uploaded is a zip file insead.
I think this time an "on-hold" decision will cause GBP/Usd to rise, as there is a small chance of a cut, so it will be a relief rally when they stay put.
I think this time an "on-hold" decision will cause GBP/Usd to rise, as there is a small chance of a cut, so it will be a relief rally when they stay put.
Ignored
i agree with you, while there is some speculation that there could be rate cut, so if they don't cut, that means gbp strengthening short time, and it should lead this pair go up i think.
btw, if there is going to be statement and some members vote for rate cut, i think we may see sharp drop on gbp as well, against going up that we imagine so be careful if going long there!
as bk told, last times was scenario different, last time there was no rumor or speculation for rate cut and then when rate not changed that means gbp weaken and we saw many time that happened.
I think this time an "on-hold" decision will cause GBP/Usd to rise, as there is a small chance of a cut, so it will be a relief rally when they stay put.
Ignored
You get the medal. Just made 20 pips on the "no rate cut" news.
Did anyone notice (or care) cable whipsaw beginning at 12:58 CET rather than the announced time of 13:00? See chart attached. Spike occurred at 12:58 while the highlighted elipse is 13:00 CET.
Did anyone notice (or care) cable whipsaw beginning at 12:58 CET rather than the announced time of 13:00? See chart attached. Spike occurred at 12:58 while the highlighted elipse is 13:00 CET.
Ignored
the spike was valid and most likley caused by a fat finger on reuters.
