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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #13,581
  • Oct 3, 2007 4:15am Oct 3, 2007 4:15am
Quoting Wolf.
Looks like you made a wise choice, missed moving my stop to +1 so may take a loss on this one.

Edit: closed -5
Cable dropped 65 pips and GJ matched it, getting to within 4 pips of its earlier low. But as UJ held at its 5m 34ema and was moving back up, this IMO prevented a larger fall in GJ.

Cable has now bounced a bit and UJ is close to its prior high / M4 at 116.20.

IF UJ breaks up and cable stays flat then I think we will get back above the 237 level - TWT!
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,582
  • Oct 3, 2007 4:15am Oct 3, 2007 4:15am
Quoting Wolf.
Yes I did briefly, that was the Elliot wave guy is that right. Never did get my head around EWs so gave up. Did he get banned for some reason, seemed to remember something could be thinking about someone else. Think I came across him in a paltalk room too.
Yes, I was part of that group. He was the EW guy and had the most popular thread but the admins at Mtec sabotaged it and closed it for reasons that were pretty much a lie. That effectively put the last nail in the coffin for that site. RIP
  • #13,583
  • Oct 3, 2007 8:35am Oct 3, 2007 8:35am
Long at 237.31 on the pull back to the 5m 34ema.....looking for UJ to continue its slow climb and cable to hold above its daily S1 (US close) Initial stop 236.91
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,584
  • Oct 3, 2007 9:06am Oct 3, 2007 9:06am
Quoting Islander
Long at 237.31 on the pull back to the 5m 34ema.....looking for UJ to continue its slow climb and cable to hold above its daily S1 (US close) Initial stop 236.91

I am long at the same place just for different reasons.

Bounce off the top of the F/L open, price also had broken above M4 and my upper trend line and I just think it is going up lol!!!!!!

Had another good entry lower down, I may post a chart although it is a bit after the fact.
  • #13,585
  • Oct 3, 2007 9:14am Oct 3, 2007 9:14am
Quoting Zoran
Yes, I was part of that group. He was the EW guy and had the most popular thread but the admins at Mtec sabotaged it and closed it for reasons that were pretty much a lie. That effectively put the last nail in the coffin for that site. RIP
Just had a quick look at the FXSurfer site, looks good will have a better look later. Noticed you there and see your an avid poster.

Shame about MT it became an unfriendly place.
  • #13,586
  • Edited 10:03am Oct 3, 2007 9:28am | Edited 10:03am
Quoting Wolf.
I am long at the same place just for different reasons.

Bounce off the top of the F/L open, price also had broken above M4 and my upper trend line and I just think it is going up lol!!!!!!

Had another good entry lower down, I may post a chart although it is a bit after the fact.

Nice to see that we have two different but conforming reasons for entry! I dont want to post too many charts either - its easy to duplicate my reasons and entries.

Now its starting to run out of momentum....UJ is just under its W R2 at 116.76 and GJ under its D R2 at 237.85....the problem is cable being stuck around its 385 level - 20 pips under its DP....I´ll hold for now....

Edit: out at 82 in that last spike up....cable´s weakness is holding GJ back
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,587
  • Edited 11:23am Oct 3, 2007 10:17am | Edited 11:23am
May as well post the chart, it is after the fact but thought it may be of interest to someone as to why I took the long at 236.26.

Basically it seemed a very low risk trade with only a small stop needed, came down to the bottom of the opening range which also happened to be the lower side of an ascending channel on the 1h time frame. I saw it as a high probability trade which importantly is with the 'trend'.

Edit: Just noticed the chart reads 236.1 should read 236.26 actually if I had left an order there the entry would have been better although I ran the risk of it not being filled.

Edit: Took profit on the last long at 79
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  • #13,588
  • Oct 3, 2007 10:27am Oct 3, 2007 10:27am
Quoting Wolf.
May as well post the chart, it is after the fact but thought it may be of interest to someone as to why I took the long at 236.26.

Basically it seemed a very low risk trade with only a small stop needed, came down to the bottom of the opening range which also happened to be the lower side of an ascending channel on the 1h time frame. I saw it as a high probability trade which importantly is with the 'trend'.

Edit: Just noticed the chart reads 236.1 should read 236.26
Sound reasoning and an excellent entry that is already more than 150 pips in profit! With my current system, the earliest that I had a signal was at 236.44, so I may need to adopt a similar strategy!.....also, the low risk inherent in such entries is very attractive!
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,589
  • Oct 3, 2007 5:12pm Oct 3, 2007 5:12pm
Quoting Wolf.
Just had a quick look at the FXSurfer site, looks good will have a better look later. Noticed you there and see your an avid poster.

Shame about MT it became an unfriendly place.
Well, that's all history now. I was known by another alias there and this one is just a recent introduction. I was one of the banned ones and accused of being him.
  • #13,590
  • Oct 4, 2007 1:43am Oct 4, 2007 1:43am
Good Morning. Three hours ago GJ dropped below its Daily Pivot and joined cable which was already under its DP, leaving UJ above its DP but under its WR2 where it failed three times yesterday.

So we start this important European Session with a negative bias whilst we wait for the BOE statement at 7edt

I scalped a few pips when I logged on and found price retracing towards the falling 5m 34ema, but the push down was weak and just failed to get to S1.

Now we have UJ trying to turn back up whilst cable wants to continue down.......guess it will be a choppy morning as BOE rumours hit the screens....so back to scalping off the 1 min
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,591
  • Edited 4:14pm Oct 4, 2007 2:24am | Edited 4:14pm
Good Morning,

Have just gone short 236.64 with a 25 pip stop will post a chart shortly.

We broke out of the rising 1H channel overnight stopping me out of my longs, presently in a small downtrend, price rose and hit resistance at the London open against two converging declining trendlines.

Will move my stop to +1 shortly just in case this turns around although it would be nice if it went down to at least 233, (grin) maybe the weekly pivot area then long again.

Edit: F/L opening range now supporting price have moved my stop to +1 also a declining channel has formed which will provide support.

Edit: Stopped out +1 will wait for another signal
  • #13,592
  • Oct 4, 2007 3:14am Oct 4, 2007 3:14am
We have a rising trend line on the 1h chart from which price has rebounded twice now so in hindsite either of those points would have been a good buy with a small stop so it is still looking long. (maybe)

With this being news week we are of course likley to range so maybe some good scalping is on the cards.
  • #13,593
  • Edited 4:16pm Oct 4, 2007 4:18am | Edited 4:16pm
I was definatley slow this morning all the signals where there for another good long entry from around 236.35 similar scenario as yesterday with added support from two good trend lines and a support line from the daily.

The recent price action may just be a temporary drop out of the upward channel before climbing north again to the the daily 61.8 as Zoran predicted.

May have wait for the news before any significant moves though.
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  • #13,594
  • Oct 4, 2007 4:22am Oct 4, 2007 4:22am
I've got this bearish bat on the 15min. It's all a bit uncertain now with the pending BoE decision. Annoyingly, my target missed by 16 pips yesterday.
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  • #13,595
  • Oct 4, 2007 4:30am Oct 4, 2007 4:30am
Morning Zoran,... Do you mean Profit target and may I ask what your entry and target were.

I have just gone long at 71
  • #13,596
  • Oct 4, 2007 4:41am Oct 4, 2007 4:41am
Quoting Wolf.
Morning Zoran,... Do you mean Profit target and may I ask what your entry and target were.

I have just gone long at 71
Morning Chris

According to this pattern, price should reverse at 237.63. Somewhere around there will be my target. Entries are (ask price) 236.45 and 236.85 (green dashed lines). I might keep the 85 entry open for longer with a stop set to be+1.
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  • #13,597
  • Oct 4, 2007 4:58am Oct 4, 2007 4:58am
Quoting Zoran
Morning Chris

According to this pattern, price should reverse at 237.63. Somewhere around there will be my target. Entries are (ask price) 236.45 and 236.85 (green dashed lines). I might keep the 85 entry open for longer with a stop set to be+1.
Nice to see we are going in the same direction.

Will have to read up on the patterns you use something I have studied briefly before but a bit like elliot waves have never got my head around.
  • #13,598
  • Oct 4, 2007 4:59am Oct 4, 2007 4:59am
Its breaking past the opening of the day and the days high for a turn toward the up side. Could be a nice move up another 100 pips according to it's (DAR) daily average range.
  • #13,599
  • Oct 4, 2007 5:13am Oct 4, 2007 5:13am
Quoting Wolf.
Nice to see we are going in the same direction.

Will have to read up on the patterns you use something I have studied briefly before but a bit like elliot waves have never got my head around.
They are called harmonic patterns and rely on fib levels. I don't really use EW either although I might do some basic wave counts at times. I have my stop set to BE + 1 on the 85 entry.
  • #13,600
  • Oct 4, 2007 5:21am Oct 4, 2007 5:21am
I decided to go out and catch up on some jobs - looks like I missed a nice 50+ pips off that higher low. I guess the Brits are thinking no rate cut....
Trading Levels with WRBs
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