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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #36,041
  • Oct 2, 2007 10:54pm Oct 2, 2007 10:54pm
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
I went long on this dip. 15min is lookin' bullish. SL is the daily pivot. Any suggestions for a TP? Think it could go to 237.70?
first we need to break 236.63
take us to 237.29 M r1
next R will be 238.74
If you count on hope in any trade ……. Get out of it
  • #36,042
  • Oct 2, 2007 10:55pm Oct 2, 2007 10:55pm
Quoting auslanco
I assume everyones SL got hit..Welcome back to the reality
I feel bad Monarch since this was his first 15min strategy trade and it was a loss.
Aus

I dont think the trade was wrong, just outside the 4 - 15 gmt rule you set.

Would you take a short signal if it came in the next hour or would you be hesitant.
Mono
  • #36,043
  • Oct 2, 2007 10:59pm Oct 2, 2007 10:59pm
Quoting mono
Aus

I dont think the trade was wrong, just outside the 4 - 15 gmt rule you set.

Would you take a short signal if it came in the next hour would you be hesitant.
Ok I'll put in this way..I took the trade without waiting for the new 1900 Pivot for Tokyo. There would have been no short trade if I waited just 1hr longer before I entered.

But.. as the time goes by.. we all learn.
  • #36,044
  • Oct 2, 2007 11:02pm Oct 2, 2007 11:02pm
Quoting mono
Aus



Would you take a short signal if it came in the next hour or would you be hesitant.
Long or short.. what ever comes first.. Long 1hr QQE5 has to cross upwards
short price below the Tokyo daily Pivot. either way.. the next trade will be a small lot for me since the market could be on a tight range untill the BoE news tomorrow.
  • #36,045
  • Oct 2, 2007 11:03pm Oct 2, 2007 11:03pm
Current Japanese's treasuries is not strong and looks not to be today .. hope so, thus longs have hope http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
  • #36,046
  • Oct 2, 2007 11:04pm Oct 2, 2007 11:04pm
Quoting auslanco
I assume everyones SL got hit..Welcome back to the reality
I feel bad for Monarch since this was his first 15min strategy trade and it was a loss.
well not quite everybody,of coarse I assume,anybody who's anybody knows I'm nobody
  • #36,047
  • Oct 2, 2007 11:07pm Oct 2, 2007 11:07pm
Quoting my2buoys
If we get a 1H close above that bearish trend line, around 236.60, the 1H QQE will cross up. I don't see anything on my charts between that trend line and the Weekly TFT which is around 237.40. The Monthly 5SMA which is around 238.50 would be next resistance and there is a 61.8 Fib around 238.90 if it carries that far.

M2B
Thanks M2B. On the daily pivot table (15min) I see R1 at 236.86, mid-lvl 2 at 237.30, and R2 at 237.73. I might play it safe and go with 237.30.
  • #36,048
  • Oct 2, 2007 11:08pm Oct 2, 2007 11:08pm
Quoting auslanco
Ok I'll put in this way..I took the trade without waiting for the new 1900 Pivot for Tokyo. There would have been no short trade if I waited just 1hr longer before I entered.

But.. as the time goes by.. we all learn.
I find I get burned more often than not when I trade right into a market change like NY into Tokyo. So I try to stay away until one market ends and the next one has begun. I don't have enough experience so I just stay away.
  • #36,049
  • Oct 2, 2007 11:09pm Oct 2, 2007 11:09pm
Quoting auslanco
I assume everyones SL got hit..Welcome back to the reality
I feel bad for Monarch since this was his first 15min strategy trade and it was a loss.
Not everybody. Since I went in after the housing news during the US session, I had plenty of wiggle room. I just added another short during the spike up and have two shorts in the green now.

I'm still confident that we are heading down. If not, I am out with a profit or small loss at worst.
  • #36,050
  • Oct 2, 2007 11:09pm Oct 2, 2007 11:09pm
Quoting gtt
Hmm, sounds very nice compared to my 9 pip fixed spread, could you give me it's details? But will it be like 20+ during news or volatility?
efxgroup / mbtrading futures

  • #36,051
  • Oct 2, 2007 11:10pm Oct 2, 2007 11:10pm
Quoting auslanco
totally agree with you bro.. averaging is digging your own grave..
It did kill my account before, but there are certain situations which helps:

1. You're dead sure you're in a short position in a downtrend or long position in uptrend
2. Averaging up (if it goes in your direction and you still see potential to reach your TP)

Overall: You should not average down. You're losing, and if the bleeding doubles you'll be deep in a corner and literally chew your nails to bone. (Monarch's saying).
  • #36,052
  • Oct 2, 2007 11:12pm Oct 2, 2007 11:12pm
Quoting 59fender
well not quite everybody,of coarse I assume,anybody who's anybody knows I'm nobody

LOL.. Thats including you too .. for someone who never post a SL, no real R:R adopted on your trades and gets lucky with your trades two out of 100 Hey guess what 59Fender, I was long from 220 and also I'm short from 251
  • #36,053
  • Oct 2, 2007 11:12pm Oct 2, 2007 11:12pm
Quoting 59fender
well not quite everybody,of coarse I assume,anybody who's anybody knows I'm nobody
ure a funny dude bro

are u still holding your longs? what tgts u aiming for?
  • #36,054
  • Oct 2, 2007 11:13pm Oct 2, 2007 11:13pm
Quoting mandoaddam
first we need to break 236.63
take us to 237.29 M r1
next R will be 238.74
Yep. A couple potential obstacles in the way. Plus the 1hr QQE isn't looking too cooperative, and if we stay at this retrace level much longer the 15min QQE's might cross bearish. Hmm . . .
  • #36,055
  • Oct 2, 2007 11:13pm Oct 2, 2007 11:13pm
Quoting gtt
It did kill my account before, but there are certain situations which helps:

1. You're dead sure you're in a short position in a downtrend or long position in uptrend
2. Averaging up (if it goes in your direction and you still see potential to reach your TP)

Overall: You should not average down. You're losing, and if the bleeding doubles you'll be deep in a corner and literally chew your nails to bone. (Monarch's saying).

Each trade should be thought of independently. DO NOT make a trade based on current open positions. A trader should exam the merits of that trade at that perticular time. period
  • #36,056
  • Oct 2, 2007 11:14pm Oct 2, 2007 11:14pm
Quoting auslanco
LOL.. Thats including you too .. for someone who never post a SL, no real R:R adopted on your trades and gets lucky with your trades two out of 100 Hey guess what 59Fender, I was long from 220 and also I was I'm short from 251

lol-- aus--there are few more in here who do exactly what u said above incl never mention when they actually took the trade , and then 100 pips later post " and now im exiting this trade of mine"
cracks me up
  • #36,057
  • Oct 2, 2007 11:19pm Oct 2, 2007 11:19pm
im still biased shorts for g/u and g/j --just waitin for the setups and entries
  • #36,058
  • Edited 11:54pm Oct 2, 2007 11:27pm | Edited 11:54pm
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
Yep. A couple potential obstacles in the way. Plus the 1hr QQE isn't looking too cooperative, and if we stay at this retrace level much longer the 15min QQE's might cross bearish. Hmm . . .

http://www.stooop.com/Month/10/0d287cfd34.gif
If you count on hope in any trade ……. Get out of it
  • #36,059
  • Oct 2, 2007 11:27pm Oct 2, 2007 11:27pm
Here's what Felix Homogratus has to say about upcoming news:

On Wednesday we will have a few things happening.

1. Wednesday, October 3rd, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. New York time we will have UK Services PMI coming out which is expected to read at 56.8. As you know, services is about 80% of UK economy, and this indicator measures how well this sector of economy is doing. If the reading is at 59 or higher, I think that would be pretty good for the pound, and I think we may see GBP/USD going up by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the reading reads at 55 or below, we may possibly see GBP/USD going down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Of course the bigger deviation is, the bigger the move can be.

SUMMARY:
* Report: UK Services PMI
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be 59 or higher
* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be 55 or lower
* If the trigger is hit, expect 40/30 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

2. Wednesday, October 3rd, 2007 (8:15 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:15 a.m. New York time we will have ADP Employment Change coming out of the U.S. As you may already know, ADP tends to predict a little bit of what the U.S. Non-Farm Payroll will read on Friday. It is expected it would read 55,000 or so. In my opinion, if the reading is 100,000 or more, it would be positive for the U.S. dollar, and GBP/USD may possibly go down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the reading is at 0 or negative, I think GBP/USD may possibly gain 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report because it would be negative for the U.S. dollar.

SUMMARY:
* Report: ADP Employment Change
* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be 100,000 or higher
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be 0 or negative
* If the trigger is hit, expect 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

3. Wednesday, October 3rd, 2007 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. New York time we will have U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index coming out. It is expected to read at 54.8. In my opinion, if this index reads 58 or higher, I think we may possibly see GBP/USD going down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the reading reads 51 or lower, I think GBP/USD may possibly gain 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Remember, this is a very market moving indicator. Don't try to rush into it. Most likely it will spike, and go back to prerelease price so you could get a good entry on afterspike trade, regardless of deviation. Don't be fooled if the deviation is big. Even on big deviations the currency may not react that much on this indicator. Nevertheless, we should see at least 30 pips move.

SUMMARY:
* Report: U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be 58 or higher
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be 51 or lower
* If the trigger is hit, expect 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

That's all for Wednesday.
  • #36,060
  • Oct 2, 2007 11:28pm Oct 2, 2007 11:28pm
Quoting Hakuna Matata
lol-- aus--there are few more in here who do exactly what u said above incl never mention when they actually took the trade , and then 100 pips later post " and now im exiting this trade of mine"
cracks me up
yepp.. I call them "cheap thrill seekers".
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