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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #13,541
  • Oct 1, 2007 5:43pm Oct 1, 2007 5:43pm
I'll be expecting a retrace back to the 235.5 area (possibly slightly lower to 235.2) and then a nice bounce up to the 238 area, followed by another bounce back to 235.

Now if the BOE is GBP positive, that could crumble the 238 resistance quite easily - so be cautious during that announcement. However, it really depends on where price is at that time.
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  • #13,542
  • Oct 2, 2007 1:44am Oct 2, 2007 1:44am
Plenty of clear sell signals in the Asian Session - pity I was asleep.

I hoped the bounce from the 235.30 low an hour and a half ago would get back up to the Daily Pivot / 236 level / 50% retrace - that would have been a great sell - instead the sell was at 235.55 as the 34ema broke again.

Now half way through the Frankfurt Hour, the 1 min chart is showing that we may be in for a bounce - best wait to see what the LO brings as the signals are confused at present.
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,543
  • Oct 2, 2007 2:03am Oct 2, 2007 2:03am
From the 1 hour chart, we can see that the Weekly R1 held yesterday and that so far, the pull back ( equal to the previous pb last Friday) has held around the Weekly M3 and just above the 50% fibbo.

Will this area hold and be the start of another leg up? Time will tell and the lower time frames will show the way.
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,544
  • Oct 2, 2007 3:13am Oct 2, 2007 3:13am
Good Morning,

Long from 235.35 the bottom of the 1 hour channel.
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  • #13,545
  • Oct 2, 2007 3:28am Oct 2, 2007 3:28am
Quoting Wolf.
Good Morning,

Long from 235.35 the bottom of the 1 hour channel.
Nice entry....I show similar levels off my 5m chart....watch the 236 area - daily pivot and 50% fibo of the drop - it would be good if it spikes straight through.

BTW, what is your green line at 234.84?
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,546
  • Oct 2, 2007 3:33am Oct 2, 2007 3:33am
Thanks Islander,

A bounce off M2 235.53 may? be another place to buy and give momentum to break the pivot.
  • #13,547
  • Edited 4:18am Oct 2, 2007 3:46am | Edited 4:18am
Quoting Wolf.
Thanks Islander,

A bounce off M2 235.53 may? be another place to buy and give momentum to break the pivot.
Agreed - I actually have M2 at 235.57 which held the push up just over an hour ago and now is support on my 1 min, which also has my 34 ema.

Now if UJ - which broke above its DP 30 mins ago - will go on up to its weekly R1 at 115.77, we´ll have a chance of breaking thru the 236 area.

I´ve added at this support.

Edit: I´m out for B/E - I see too much bearish divergence on 1m and 5m in UJ and GJ and prefer to sit out and wait for a new signal.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,548
  • Oct 2, 2007 3:50am Oct 2, 2007 3:50am
Quoting Islander
Agreed - I actually have M2 at 235.57 which held the push up just over an hour ago and now is support on my 1 min, which also has my 34 ema.

Now if UJ - which broke above its DP 30 mins ago - will go on up to its weekly R1 at 115.77, we´ll have a chance of breaking thru the 236 area.

I´ve added at this support.
Same here!
  • #13,549
  • Oct 2, 2007 4:00am Oct 2, 2007 4:00am
I believe the retrace is complete and we are now heading for 238. I have attached the original chart and a current one. Original post below.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...54#post1621954

Quoting Zoran
I'll be expecting a retrace back to the 235.5 area (possibly slightly lower to 235.2) and then a nice bounce up to the 238 area, followed by another bounce back to 235.

Now if the BOE is GBP positive, that could crumble the 238 resistance quite easily - so be cautious during that announcement. However, it really depends on where price is at that time.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,550
  • Oct 2, 2007 6:33am Oct 2, 2007 6:33am
Now that I´m back I see that I was too quick to exit. The small pull back stopped at the 5m 34ema, held around there for 8 candles and then bounced straight up thru the daily pivot, where its remained....so far.

UJ has got above its weekly R1, but GU only managed to touch its DP in a 5m doji and is now back at S1 - so conflicting input for GJ.

This morning´s high in GJ was at its 61.8% retrace of its fall since yesterday.

Now to see what the US Traders think.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,551
  • Oct 2, 2007 6:55am Oct 2, 2007 6:55am
I'm still in, price contained within these two trend lines right now.

Hopefully those US traders will take it north soon.
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  • #13,552
  • Oct 2, 2007 7:50am Oct 2, 2007 7:50am
Another good buy at the retest of the trend line (yellow arrow). Unfortunatley I missed it.
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  • #13,553
  • Oct 2, 2007 8:26am Oct 2, 2007 8:26am
Here´s an update....showing three buying opportunities so far. I´ve not marked the last possible one as the snake is lower and has red starting to show, thus its showing falling momentum and a red warning.

Also, the whole rally, although more than 100 pips, has been laboured with the snake unable to rise above its 0.30 line - this makes me wary of adding longs, even with UJ above its W R1
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,554
  • Oct 2, 2007 9:34am Oct 2, 2007 9:34am
Great entries Islander I have similar, the first two still running the third a scalp up to the trend line, the fourth I missed but it wasn't the the best entry at all really. The fifth was a good entry bouncing off the declining trend line, closed it for +47.

Do agree with you though it has been laboured and is comming down from M3 right now, should go up to at least test the 237 level.

Edit: long again from 236.37
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  • #13,555
  • Oct 2, 2007 9:49am Oct 2, 2007 9:49am
Quoting Wolf.
Great entries Islander I have similar, the first two still running the third a scalp up to the trend line, the fourth I missed but it wasn't the the best entry at all really. The fifth was a good entry bouncing off the declining trend line, closed it for +47.

Do agree with you though it has been laboured and is comming down from M3 right now, should go up to at least test the 237 level.

Edit: long again from 236.37
Great. The high was nicely at the daily M3 - 236.75, so a good place to have a target.

The 5m 34ema has now rolled over, so I´ve taken a short at 236.35 - now need UJ to break back under its W R1 -115.77 - for this to drop hard.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,556
  • Edited 10:09am Oct 2, 2007 9:57am | Edited 10:09am
Quoting Islander
Great. The high was nicely at the daily M3 - 236.75, so a good place to have a target.

The 5m 34ema has now rolled over, so I´ve taken a short at 236.35 - now need UJ to break back under its W R1 -115.77 - for this to drop hard.
Just closed the last one for +2 we are trading against each other again lol.

Edit: nice rejection of the rising t/l hopefully help your short
  • #13,557
  • Oct 2, 2007 10:01am Oct 2, 2007 10:01am
Hey Wolf. I see you were a regular Mtec visitor. What was your alias there?
  • #13,558
  • Oct 2, 2007 10:02am Oct 2, 2007 10:02am
Quoting Islander
Great. The high was nicely at the daily M3 - 236.75, so a good place to have a target.

The 5m 34ema has now rolled over, so I´ve taken a short at 236.35 - now need UJ to break back under its W R1 -115.77 - for this to drop hard.
If you dont mind me asking Islander, what are the moving average values you use besides 34 EMA on a 5 min chart... I will understand if you dont want to share...


merci...
  • #13,559
  • Oct 2, 2007 10:07am Oct 2, 2007 10:07am
Quoting Zoran
Hey Wolf. I see you were a regular Mtec visitor. What was your alias there?
Hi Zoran...Same as here, never posted though just lurked in the shadows learning whatever I could. Haven't been there for a while not as friendly as FF.
  • #13,560
  • Oct 2, 2007 10:13am Oct 2, 2007 10:13am
Quoting Wolf.
Hi Zoran...Same as here, never posted though just lurked in the shadows learning whatever I could. Haven't been there for a while not as friendly as FF.
Aha, yes. It is pretty much dead now. The whole site gets as many posts in a month as a good thread here gets in a day. It used to be a good site and more popular than this place until the admins killed it.

Did you follow fxsurfer's thread?
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