I see oil reaching 100 USD?! | Forex Factory

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I see oil reaching 100 USD?!

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Apr 16, 2008 3:40am Sep 30, 2007 12:06pm | Edited Apr 16, 2008 3:40am
I may be wrong ofcourse, but looking at those numbers, do not wanting to go down, thats the only number we havent seen. Maybe not this year, but next year for sure. From both technical and fundamental side, it should go there.
1. technical
Last year it went to 80s, touch it, went down test the 60s, a little up, then 50s. after rejecting to nicely, touching 70s, finally breaking 80s...and now stucked between 80s-85ish.
2. fundamental
demand, crisis, rate cuts, the euro, the jpy, weather,3 major elections next year (russia,usa,japan)
So please, do u see it happen as well?
its just money
  • #2
  • Sep 30, 2007 12:49pm Sep 30, 2007 12:49pm
I know that oil will reach even higher price. When i see China and India economy growing exponentially but oil production staying about the same then north is the only direction price will head.

There will be pull back of course when 3 month futur contract will reach low demand period (summer) but lack of ressource will forcibly push the price up.

I also see war at the end of the bell curve. And i'm not talking about little easy war like Irak. I'm talking big (this is of course if no other power ressources and technology are not found withing the next 50 years )
  • #3
  • Oct 1, 2007 4:17pm Oct 1, 2007 4:17pm
My technical view for oil dictates that the current uptrend in commodities is to continue for some longer time, however, for sure we are nearing the end of this nice trend relative to the whole life of it.


Thanks,

Nader
  • #4
  • Oct 1, 2007 6:13pm Oct 1, 2007 6:13pm
Quoting de123
I may be wrong ofcourse, but looking at those numbers, do not wanting to go down, thats the only number we havent seen. Maybe not this year, but next year for sure. From both technical and fundamental side, it should go there.
1. technical
Last year it went to 80s, touch it, went down test the 60s, a little up, then 50s. after rejecting to nicely, touching 70s, finally breaking 80s...and now stucked between 80s-85ish.
2. fundamental
demand, crisis, rate cuts, the euro, the jpy, weather,3 major elections next year (russia,usa,japan)
So please, do u see it happen as well?
Hey ya' young whippersnapper.
I remember {as do quite a few here who are willing to admit it} when Oil was $10.00 a bbl and Gasoline was $0.25 CAD A British GALLON.
Will Oil reach $100.00? Of course it will. Will it do it in the NEXT 12 months? Don't think so.
The 'Unsuspected' windfall of a "Forgotten Reserve", or some other bolt from the blue, will quell it's heels. {until wages catch up}
  • #5
  • Oct 2, 2007 3:39am Oct 2, 2007 3:39am
Quoting Bemac
Hey ya' young whippersnapper.
I remember {as do quite a few here who are willing to admit it} when Oil was $10.00 a bbl and Gasoline was $0.25 CAD A British GALLON.
Will Oil reach $100.00? Of course it will. Will it do it in the NEXT 12 months? Don't think so.
The 'Unsuspected' windfall of a "Forgotten Reserve", or some other bolt from the blue, will quell it's heels. {until wages catch up}
well hey bemac,...lets wait and see...if 80s hold,..100 next...
its just money
  • #6
  • Oct 2, 2007 8:00am Oct 2, 2007 8:00am
Don't forget the high prices of oil is in some way due to the low dollar.
  • #7
  • Oct 2, 2007 1:27pm Oct 2, 2007 1:27pm
Quoting JodyOng
Don't forget the high prices of oil is in some way due to the low dollar.
This is exactly what the current uptrend in commodities is getting steam from. Most funds are transfering their weak US dollars into hard assets which are commodities like gold, silver and oil since real estate is not the best choice right now.


Thanks,

Nader
  • #8
  • Oct 2, 2007 1:39pm Oct 2, 2007 1:39pm
Quoting narafa
This is exactly what the current uptrend in commodities is getting steam from. Most funds are transfering their weak US dollars into hard assets which are commodities like gold, silver and oil since real estate is not the best choice right now.


Thanks,

Nader
People are buying oil because it's safer than the US Dollar? How many funds did you poll to come up with that idea? I thought commodities went up due to supply and demand all this time.
  • #9
  • Oct 2, 2007 1:53pm Oct 2, 2007 1:53pm
Quoting philmcgrew
People are buying oil because it's safer than the US Dollar? How many funds did you poll to come up with that idea? I thought commodities went up due to supply and demand all this time.
Sure, I agree that commodities went up due to supply and demand. But isn't supply and demand related to Gold/USD? If USD supply is huge and gold supply is restricted, doesn't that imply that the pirce of Gold/USD will see a rise? Pure steady inflation. It's not because people are going to consume more gold or consume more oil, it's because people are demanding more gold or more oil in terms of the huge piles of USD they are having, especially China and Japan.

As to how many funds I polled, I never polled any funds, I got the insight from the COT reports.

As of 25 Sep 2007, Non-Commercials were net LONG gold by around 173,000 contracts.

And as of 25 Sep 2007, Non-Commercials were net LONG silver by around 24,000 contracts.

And as of 25 Sep 2007, Non-Commercials were net LONG oil by around 43,000 contracts.


And since Most Non-Commercials are usually funds, then probably, most funds were the buyers who were converting their USD into commodities through establishing new LONG positions.

To get things into perspective, during the same period which witnessed the major upwave in commodities, the USD fell infront of most currencies which consequently means that if you are a European and want to buy gold which is quoted in USD, gold actually didn't go up to you or went up slightly, same holds for oil and silver. The difference between a $70 oil barrel price and the $80 oil barrel price is offset (To some extent) by the difference between a $1.35 and and $1.42 EUR/USD rate for example.


Thanks,

Nader
  • #10
  • Oct 2, 2007 2:07pm Oct 2, 2007 2:07pm
Nader,

I certainly agree with you that there is a move to gold and silver for many of the same reasons you stated. Those commodities are traditionally safe havens in times of uncertainty. I do question why someone would exchange USD for CL as a way to protect their investments.
  • #11
  • Oct 2, 2007 3:33pm Oct 2, 2007 3:33pm
Quoting narafa
The difference between a $70 oil barrel price and the $80 oil barrel price is offset (To some extent) by the difference between a $1.35 and and $1.42 EUR/USD rate for example.
yes great points nader! and if i remember correctly, the dollar was strong while you and me were making a killing shorting oil last year.

regarding the future of oil, i still think the best way to make money is on the short side. im nowhere near ready to short it now, but if i see some kind of sharp pullback im looking to do the same play as last year - ride it short through the stops!
Relax and be happy.
  • #12
  • Oct 2, 2007 8:08pm Oct 2, 2007 8:08pm
The true peaking of oil will change life as we know it!!


http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2716
http://www.oilcrashmovie.com/film.html
Check Mate GAME OVER
  • #13
  • Oct 3, 2007 2:39am Oct 3, 2007 2:39am
Quoting philmcgrew
Nader,

I certainly agree with you that there is a move to gold and silver for many of the same reasons you stated. Those commodities are traditionally safe havens in times of uncertainty. I do question why someone would exchange USD for CL as a way to protect their investments.
People do silly things, but they put faith in crude during times of turmoil. I guess with the french FM comments on Iran and all that, it may have been a sound move, and again the upcoming elections in the US are going to cause a big upheaval as several candidates ponder a withdrawal from Iraq. I wouldn't short crude just now, but then I don't play this game in the first place.

Merlin & Nader: If you don't mind me asking, what brokerage are you trading crude with?
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #14
  • Oct 3, 2007 1:45pm Oct 3, 2007 1:45pm
I have been adding to my oil stocks every time I go to the pump and the price at the pump was down.. I only hope oil drops as I'll add more.. Imagine that asking for it to drop..lol

In case anyone is wondering the world is becoming ever more hungry for oil as more and more nations become ultra modernized.... But for those who wish it drops I'm pulling for ya.. 100 oil will happen and even higher.. Just all things need time to pass.... Just like the dow-30 and all that stuff. Do you think things are all rosy and that we are not in trouble?
Check Mate GAME OVER
  • #15
  • Oct 3, 2007 1:50pm Oct 3, 2007 1:50pm
I remember arguing with a stock broker friend about whether the Dow could break 2500. In that regard, $100 oil will sound like a silly arugement a couple years from now.
  • #16
  • Oct 3, 2007 1:52pm Oct 3, 2007 1:52pm
Quoting philmcgrew
I remember arguing with a stock broker friend about whether the Dow could break 2500. In that regard, $100 oil will sound like a silly arugement a couple years from now.
Yea, they know it all.. lol
Check Mate GAME OVER
  • #17
  • Oct 3, 2007 6:34pm Oct 3, 2007 6:34pm
Quoting Plutonite
Merlin & Nader: If you don't mind me asking, what brokerage are you trading crude with?
i do most of my futures trading with InteractiveBrokers. i trade with a few others, but nobody i would endorse:
Relax and be happy.
  • #18
  • Oct 3, 2007 6:39pm Oct 3, 2007 6:39pm
Quoting philmcgrew
I remember arguing with a stock broker friend about whether the Dow could break 2500. In that regard, $100 oil will sound like a silly arugement a couple years from now.
i disagree for one reason... OPEC does not want expensive oil!

what happened when oil hit $70 last year? everybody and their mother was trying to put vegetable oil in their car, hybrid became a fad, and bush declared the US is an oil crack addict LOL.

OPEC saw all of this and got scared shitless. its simple economics, when things get expensive people look for alternatives. nobody knows this better than OPEC. they want a goldilocks price, not too cheap that they leave money on the table, but not too expensive where they force people to develop oil alternatives. i believe this price is somewhere around $65.
Relax and be happy.
  • #19
  • Oct 3, 2007 6:55pm Oct 3, 2007 6:55pm
Quoting merlin
i disagree for one reason... OPEC does not want expensive oil!

what happened when oil hit $70 last year? everybody and their mother was trying to put vegetable oil in their car, hybrid became a fad, and bush declared the US is an oil crack addict LOL.

OPEC saw all of this and got scared shitless. its simple economics, when things get expensive people look for alternatives. nobody knows this better than OPEC. they want a goldilocks price, not too cheap that they leave money on the table, but not too expensive where they force people to develop oil alternatives. i believe this price is somewhere around $65.
I thought basic economics went sumfin like this Supply & Demand.. Is the supply high and if so do you think we get the truth? Demand is high and will continue to get higher.. Alternatives for fuel will never come close to replacing fuel and how about the petrochem's? Most never think about this but about everything you see in your home is produced from petrochem's.

How much reserves does Saudi have? Have they been telling the truth over the last 10 years? Iran has peaked and another thing Nations of power will always have a strong interest in anyone with oil both militarily and politically, yes?

I would like a nice 15-20 drop in crude though so I'm pulling for yea..
Check Mate GAME OVER
  • #20
  • Oct 3, 2007 9:20pm Oct 3, 2007 9:20pm
Quoting merlin
i disagree for one reason... OPEC does not want expensive oil!

what happened when oil hit $70 last year? everybody and their mother was trying to put vegetable oil in their car, hybrid became a fad, and bush declared the US is an oil crack addict LOL.

OPEC saw all of this and got scared shitless. its simple economics, when things get expensive people look for alternatives. nobody knows this better than OPEC. they want a goldilocks price, not too cheap that they leave money on the table, but not too expensive where they force people to develop oil alternatives. i believe this price is somewhere around $65.

Plus, I would like to add two very important words: Canadian Shale. Shale becomes profitable at roughly $70/barrel.

Canada had a ridiculously huge deposit. OPEC knows this. (There are estimates that western Canada is roughly as saturated as the Middle East.)

Also, if it were to get to $100....Anwar protection would cease to exist.

However, it certain is possible. It would just take a few key events. In the end though, it wouldn't last long.

Clockwork
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