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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #34,421
  • Sep 30, 2007 9:44am Sep 30, 2007 9:44am
Quoting Hakuna Matata
lol bro-- i wish it does--ive got a limit order activated short from that 50% fib ive mentioned above ( actually short from 235.05 rather then 235.20)-- would be a lovely surprise if that opens that low !!--i doubt though !!
right now its showing 235.01/09 on CMC

It's 234.84 at cnn money


http://money.cnn.com/data/currencies/index.html
These too shall pass away.
  • #34,422
  • Sep 30, 2007 10:07am Sep 30, 2007 10:07am
This past week, for some reason I didn't stick to my original plan and I made some mistakes in my trading, I have been thinking and trying to figure out why it happened. As a 1hr/4hr chart trader, looking at 15m chart most of the time has caused me trouble, so i'm going back to 1hr/4hr trades. I guess it is a 'wake up' call for me before a tsunami comes my way.

Let's start pipping
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #34,423
  • Sep 30, 2007 10:14am Sep 30, 2007 10:14am
GJ has broke to the upside as we know but we have a very strong resistance at 235.20-45, if this resistance is broken then 238 is definitely a target (Zoran's target for several weeks). A 50% retracement is possible first to 233.70 area where we also have 50ema.
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Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #34,424
  • Sep 30, 2007 10:41am Sep 30, 2007 10:41am
Quoting markam
Once again, we have a week where news releases are going to dominate traders actions.To start the fun, we get the Tankan survey to set the mood for the week. The other two big news items are the BOE interest rate statement on thursday and the US Nonfarm employment report on friday.

I expect to see a LOT of variability. Typically, I try to make a determination about the news release and place an order prior to the release. I don't think I will be doing so this week.

For what it's worth, I expect the Tanken report to be strong (GJ bearish), I expect the BOE to not lower rates (though there is a definite possibility that they will), and I expect the employment report to be much better than last months (but still not good).

I did have a dream last night that the BOE did a surprise rate cut. It is pretty scary that I have forex dreams, and even more scary that I had such a specific dream about an upcoming event. In my dream, there was a 500 pip drop. If that actually happens, I plan to spend less time trading in the future, and more time sleeping.
Bro Markam, dont forget to let us know ur dream every time. Its ok if u can post while u are sleeping so we can prepare for the next move ......
  • #34,425
  • Sep 30, 2007 10:53am Sep 30, 2007 10:53am
Quoting karmostaji
This past week, for some reason I didn't stick to my original plan and I made some mistakes in my trading, I have been thinking and trying to figure out why it happened. As a 1hr/4hr chart trader, looking at 15m chart most of the time has caused me trouble, so i'm going back to 1hr/4hr trades. I guess it is a 'wake up' call for me before a tsunami comes my way.

Let's start pipping
Is your bearish target (220) early of the month drive u to always in bearish side eventhough u r a bull man? No matter what, i still have a believe in u...
  • #34,426
  • Sep 30, 2007 10:56am Sep 30, 2007 10:56am
Quoting karmostaji
GJ has broke to the upside as we know but we have a very strong resistance at 235.20-45, if this resistance is broken then 238 is definitely a target (Zoran's target for several weeks). A 50% retracement is possible first to 233.70 area where we also have 50ema.
Hi karmostaji, i would like to know why there exist strong resistance on 235.20-45?? Weekly or monthly pivot? Hope you can clear my doubt
  • #34,427
  • Sep 30, 2007 11:43am Sep 30, 2007 11:43am
Quoting HnP
Is your bearish target (220) early of the month drive u to always in bearish side eventhough u r a bull man? No matter what, i still have a believe in u...
The big fall is still on the cards but the question is how much does this beast want to retrace before it falls, 235.20 is the 50%, 238.95 is the 61.8% and 243.58 is the 76.4% fibo, you should keep an eye for a reversal at these levels.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #34,428
  • Sep 30, 2007 11:44am Sep 30, 2007 11:44am
Quoting comeinvest
Hi karmostaji, i would like to know why there exist strong resistance on 235.20-45?? Weekly or monthly pivot? Hope you can clear my doubt
If you have a look at the chart I posted earlier, you will see that we have a daily fibo level there, and also price has bounced off this area several times.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #34,429
  • Sep 30, 2007 12:23pm Sep 30, 2007 12:23pm
Quoting F-100
Bad for yen.
http://itrade4x.blogspot.com
That is a stupid site. This one quote

Quote
US FED holds the key to the FX carry trade-Which means Lower interest rate & strong Dollar Policy.

Those two policies are exact opposite of each other. Every time the fed drops their rate, they put another nail in the coffin of the dollar.

There may be a short-term strengthening of the dollar over the next couple of weeks, especially if the jobs report is good, but there is no hope for a long-term strengthening of the dollar.
  • #34,430
  • Sep 30, 2007 12:40pm Sep 30, 2007 12:40pm
now i know how to post chart.from my chart i think the price will go up until 236.5 at daily fibo 23.6 before retrace to fibo 38.2.please leave comment.tq for support.
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Gold Expedition Return This Year: -15.9%
  • #34,431
  • Sep 30, 2007 2:41pm Sep 30, 2007 2:41pm
Quoting karmostaji
The big fall is still on the cards but the question is how much does this beast want to retrace before it falls, 235.20 is the 50%, 238.95 is the 61.8% and 243.58 is the 76.4% fibo, you should keep an eye for a reversal at these levels.
They are good levels karmo. It amazes me how different systems confirm each other.

My levels are primarily based on S/R that were formed before the fib levels came into play, so the confirmation just adds weight. We have come to the third resistance level of 235.30 and my long positions were closed just below that at 235.19 (with a Friday high of 232.26). The last resistance level is 235.50, the top of the range over the past few weeks, which is the extreme. I am now expecting a retrace of sorts although it could still go up a bit more (probably no higher than 235.50). Also, being a Sunday - price can move around a bit more freely so there is a bit more uncertainty.

Anyway, I will be looking for a short on this potential retrace with a first target around 234.5 and a second target around 233.5. I will then look to go long depending on the action at those points. A word of caution to newbies - do not follow unless you have some proven MM in place. Targets may not be met, but the trades should still be profitable.

On the long, the first potential reversal point is in the 238 region (as mentioned many times before - although I have had my doubts at times). There should be a fairly large and profitable bounce (and expected reversal) off that area back to the 235 region. The problem now is that the 235 region will provide very, very strong support so it will take time to break unless there is a panic of sorts.

So having said that, 235 could hold and break 238. In that case, 244 is the next level. Another resistance level but since I use the 78.6 fib level (instead of 74.6), I have a slightly higher fib point (but they are still fairly close). The final level is 247.3.

So I am expecting a big fall (back to 221) but I am also expecting one final spike up. So it's not necessarily an easy thing to trade. Also, I'll be looking out for signs of a bear trap. One can never be sure!

Chart attached with the blue shaded area forming a bearish Gartley - with a potential reversal at 238.80 (78.6 level not shown but comes close to the indicated 61.8 level). The purple shaded area is our current range (with a high of 235.50) and finally the ascendling red line is the major bullish indicator - which resembles an ascending right angle triangle (with the resistance being the top of the range) although it is not so cleanly cut.

So they are my short to mid term views but I will be playing the intraday charts for my daily trades.
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  • #34,432
  • Sep 30, 2007 3:24pm Sep 30, 2007 3:24pm
Hey Mark,nice to see you!I always wanted to ask you something.So is it true that the USA are undervalueing the dollar,coz they want to buy the crude cheaper?Said with a word when OPEC are getting the price higher USA is buing it on the same price before the rise in price?!
  • #34,433
  • Sep 30, 2007 3:27pm Sep 30, 2007 3:27pm
Interesting data on the overnight dollar libor rates. Prior to the fed cut, the fix rate was 5.33%. After the cut, it dropped to 4.94%. The friday rate was 5.304%.

Looks like the fed cut is not having the desired effect. That is a huge spread from the feds O/N rate of 4.75%. It is also higher than the 1, 3, 6 and 12 month libor rates for the same day, which is also very unusual.

The high overnight rate could be caused by end of quarter effects. However, if it doesn't drop tomorrow, it could indicate a potential problem coming.
  • #34,434
  • Sep 30, 2007 3:43pm Sep 30, 2007 3:43pm
Hi Mark

I'm sure you realise that the world economy is probably is real trouble and there's really not much anyone can do. Governments will give the impression that they are attempting to fix it but it will only delay the inevitable. They can then turn around and say, "Well, at least we tried!!". It's just politics in the end.

As traders, we can make money whether the markets rise or fall.
  • #34,435
  • Sep 30, 2007 3:46pm Sep 30, 2007 3:46pm
Quoting I.Y.I
Hey Mark,nice to see you!I always wanted to ask you something.So is it true that the USA are undervalueing the dollar,coz they want to buy the crude cheaper?Said with a word when OPEC are getting the price higher USA is buing it on the same price before the rise in price?!
Doubtful. Saudi Arabia has cut shipments to asia below contracted amounts, while maintaining shipment levels to the US. As a result, asian spot prices are higher than they are for europe/US. That is about the only break the US is getting right now.

The weakening dollar is actually protecting somewhat the other countries from increasing oil prices. Priced in euros, oil has not increased nearly as much as it has in dollars. Only the US and countries tied to the dollar (like China) are getting to experience the full effects of oil price increases.
  • #34,436
  • Sep 30, 2007 3:48pm Sep 30, 2007 3:48pm
Quoting I.Y.I
Hey Mark,nice to see you!I always wanted to ask you something.So is it true that the USA are undervalueing the dollar,coz they want to buy the crude cheaper?Said with a word when OPEC are getting the price higher USA is buing it on the same price before the rise in price?!
I don't agree with that. How can the US buy cheaper crude if they are paying in USD and price continues to go up? Perhaps oil is increasing because the USD is decreasing, thus increasing demand from those countries whos currencies are appreciating against the USD. Not that I believe in either scenario but my one seems more probable.
  • #34,437
  • Sep 30, 2007 3:54pm Sep 30, 2007 3:54pm
Quoting markam
There may be a short-term strengthening of the dollar over the next couple of weeks, especially if the jobs report is good, but there is no hope for a long-term strengthening of the dollar.
Is the dollar a safe haven during weakening economic periods? I thought USD, CHF and GOLD were all safe havens. Any ideas?
  • #34,438
  • Sep 30, 2007 3:55pm Sep 30, 2007 3:55pm
Did u guys notice that last Friday some platform closed at very high level greater than 235.20 ( I saw Zoran's chart posted), my platform closed @235.02 and have SL set @ 235.26. Which should have been stopped out. But funny thing, when FXSol opens this afternoon and my trade is still there and safe. Sometimes, it could be nice to see the broker closes earlier to protect all the prices, especially in this case .. phewww.. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
  • #34,439
  • Sep 30, 2007 3:58pm Sep 30, 2007 3:58pm
Quoting mktjong
Did u guys notice that last Friday some platform closed at very high level greater than 235.20 ( I saw Zoran's chart posted), my platform closed @235.02 and have SL set @ 235.26. Which should have been stopped out. But funny thing, when FXSol opens this afternoon and my trade is still there and safe. Sometimes, it could be nice to see the broker closes earlier to protect all the prices, especially in this case .. phewww.. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
Is your trading active already?
  • #34,440
  • Sep 30, 2007 4:08pm Sep 30, 2007 4:08pm
Quoting markam
Is your trading active already?
Yes, FXSol already opens @4 PM EDT and currently @234.71 at the bid
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