Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

Quoting VishalJ

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Zoran, this downfall might be coming sooner than expected. The overnight LIBOR rate has gone up .. despite banks pouring in money, and US rate cuts. Cost for borrowing pounds has gone up by 20 basis points.

This makes me think that the BoE might be pressured early on to make a rate cut.. or at least talk about it.

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Quoting karmostaji

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hmm, one more push up left?

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Quoting markam

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To break and hold above the 235 range is going to require a perception by the market that the banking/credit problems are done. That is obviously not the case.

It is also end of month/end of quarter, so there could be quite a bit of profit taking in the stock market today.

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Quoting Zoran

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I don't know. I'm expecting a thrust upwards and then a big fall. But that's just a technical analysis and my thoughts.

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Quoting gau2902

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Are you short or long karmo? What is your analysis?

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Quoting PipChick

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I agree with you Zoran

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Quoting markam

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I could have sworn the personal spending number was originally 0.3 when it was posted here at FF. Now it says 0.6%

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Quoting PipChick

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I am thinking once it breaks the 234.75 area it will stall at 234.97 and maybe retrace a bit in order to thrust to 235.42 and then 236.01 before the fall.
Edit: At this point it all depends on the news for the moment.

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Quoting karmostaji

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I went long after i got stopped out of my short earlier today, iv closed most of my long positions, just got 1 more and waiting for one last push up to close it.

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Quoting PipChick

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I am thinking once it breaks the 234.75 area it will stall at 234.97 and maybe retrace a bit in order to thrust to 235.42 and then 236.01 before the fall.
Edit: At this point it all depends on the news for the moment.

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Quoting Zoran

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I don't know. I'm expecting a thrust upwards and then a big fall. But that's just a technical analysis and my thoughts.

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Quoting HeavensGate

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I just need to ask why is it going to fall? What is your analysis based on?

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Quoting VishalJ

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Oh yes, by sooner - I didn't mean now.. probably at closing or monday. There are rumors of USD/JPY fixing and AUD/USD fixing circulating right now. No specifics on what time though.. only thing known is bids are collecting around 114.80 .

Edit - Feds add 4.45 billion $ in reserves to banking system. WTH? How much money have they pumped in so far?

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Quoting PipChick

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236.01 is the 161.8% retracement from yesterday mornings lo to yesterdays hi. The 161.8 is USUALLY a turning point for a decent retrace.

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Quoting auslanco

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Dear traders....
I decided to start my own thread because there are some other great traders who can provide very valuable analysis of GBP/JPY on the other thread , and I feel that my trade calls are overshadowing those good analysis contributed by other experienced traders.
This thread is mainly focused for new traders who want to learn my trading methods.

Money Management & Trading habits:
Maximum 2% risk per pair. What that means is when you calculate your stop losses your stop loss amount has to be within 2% of your account .If the trade goes against you, the maximum you will loose is 2% of your account. This way it also prevents you from getting panic attacks when the trade retrace against you resulting you close the trade pre maturely. If your desired stop losses do not come within 2% of your account don’t take that trade. As I always say, you may miss one trade but there are millions more to come.
You always have to calculate your risk every time before you enter your trades.
Your risk to profit ratio has to be minimum 1:1. That means if you are taking a 2% risk on a trade make sure your profit target would be at least 2%.
Always have realistic targets. My aim is 300 % capital growth per year. The lesser your target is lesser the risk of losing your own money. Even if you have 50% capital growth per year you are doing better than 90% of the worlds biggest hedge funds.
More trades you take the more you expose your account for losses. No trader in this world can profit from every single market move.
Patience plays a big part in trading. Take the trades only if you are at least 90% sure of profiting from it. If you are not sure stay away from the trade. Staying on the sideline is as good as winning.
Never trade against the trend. Specially with a high volatile pair like GBP/JPY. It may give you couple of winning trades. But it’s going to get you in the long run.
Always have a trading strategy ... make a habit to stick to it doesn’t matter how desperate you are. Always trust your strategy but not bloomberg or some statement from citibank. Don’t go with your gut feeling because 95% of the time your gut feeling is wrong.
Your charts are your forex bible. Everything what you need to know about forex is on your charts. You will learn something new everyday from you charts.
Specialize in one or two pairs. Every single pair has it’s own characteristics. No two pairs are the same. Don’t trade all the pairs your broker can offer. If you specialize in one or two pairs very soon you will be able to read the pair like a road map .
Stay away from the ranging markets. There will be enough of trend break outs on this pair than you ever want. Why take any extra risks trying to chase 20 pips on a ranging markets when you can grab 200 pips on a break out.
As Monarc mentioned traders are a greedy bunch. Less greedy once are the most successful once.
Don’t try to chase every single pip or market movement. Have a realistic weekly or monthly target as a percentage of your account . Not the number of pips. If you have already achieved that target stay away from the market. As I mentioned before.. the more you trade there is more risk of losing your money.
The losses are part of the game. Do not try to cover all your previous losses from your next trade. First your trading plan has to include at least 50% of losing trades. Then you can cut down on the number of losing trades while you gain experience and confidence.
When you start you must demo trade at least for the first 3 months to build a trading strategy. Then for the next 3 months trade on a demo account or a micro account and test your strategy coupled with a good money management strategy. When you are fully confident then trade with your real account.
Use minimum account leverage. Don’t abuse it. My recommendation for new traders is maximum one mini lot for every $2500 or one full lot for every $25000.
At last ... remember there is no easy way to become a good consistently profitable trader. No one can become a profitable trader overnight. As everything else in life it takes time, patience lots of sacrifices and learning. Don’t be afraid of mistakes.
It took me 8 months to make my first consistent $100 per week. Since then making money is like a walk in the park.

Edit 07/31/07:
Notes about SI:
Quote:
Originally Posted by ovidiu http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I promise to not ask anything else that's not related directly to your strategy from now on, cause I realize that I am flooding with all this SI thing, but could you point me from where can I get that indicator, cause know is all I need to have an exact replica of your setting.

Add "Qualitative Quantitative Estimation" to VT. It is the same as "SI". A's is a commercial product that he can't pimp on this thread. PM him if you want to pay for it.

This info would be good on page 1 as well. It has been asked a thousand times.

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