Daily GBP/JPY analysis

Hello Islander

In the other thread you mentioned the studies of Dove Alliance on daily pivots, where can I read about it?
Thanks

Hi Howard

I´ve not yet found how to copy documents etc, so you need to go to the UJ-JPY thread and click on the attachments icon in the top right corner.

The text file is on Sep 10. If you have any problems, come back and I´ll email it to you.

Good luck

Islander

Thanks a lot, I found a word doc which comprises of a number of posts compiled in the doc called Dove Alliance ; is this the one you refer to?

I also found the text file of the 10th Sept, unfortunately I cannot open it, as if something is wrong with it

Send me a PM with your email and I´ll mail you the file

Thanks for the file

It amazes me how different systems confirm each other. Fibs line up with S/R, MAs, pivots and other systems that I (and others) observe.

My levels are primarily based on S/R that were formed before the fib levels (or other systems) came into play, so the confirmation just adds weight. We have come to the third resistance level of 235.30 and my long positions were closed just below that at 235.19 (with a Friday high of 235.26). The last resistance level is 235.50, the top of the range over the past few weeks, which is the extreme. I am now expecting a retrace of sorts although it could still go up a bit more (probably no higher than 235.50). Also, being a Sunday - price can move around a bit more freely so there is a bit more uncertainty.

Anyway, I will be looking for a short on this potential retrace with a first target around 234.5 and a second target around 233.5. I will then look to go long depending on the action at those points. A word of caution to newbies - do not follow unless you have some proven MM in place. Targets may not be met, but the trades should still be profitable.

On the long, the first potential reversal point is in the 238 region (as mentioned many times before - although I have had my doubts at times). There should be a fairly large and profitable bounce (and expected reversal) off that area back to the 235 region. The problem now is that the 235 region will provide very, very strong support so it will take time to break unless there is a panic of sorts.

So having said that, 235 could hold and break 238. In that case, 244 is the next level. The final level is 247.3.

So I am expecting a big fall (back to 221) but I am also expecting one final spike up. So it's not necessarily an easy thing to trade. Also, I'll be looking out for signs of a bear trap. One can never be sure!

Chart attached with the blue shaded area forming a bearish Gartley (not cleanly cut) - with a potential reversal at 238.80 (78.6 level not shown but comes close to the indicated 61.8 level). The purple shaded area is our current range (with a high of 235.50) and finally the ascendling red line is the major bullish indicator - which resembles an ascending right-angle triangle (with the resistance being the top of the range) although it is not so cleanly cut.

So they are my short to mid term views but I will be playing the intraday charts for my daily trades.

[quote=Wolf.;1613415]I am long from 232.5 tight stop 232.25

Stopped out of this trade at 233.75 early hours friday morning and my last scalp for +10. Didn't trade friday away for the day, looks like I missed a couple of nice trades.

Will post some analysis later or tomorrow, bit tired tonight.

The strong uptrend from Fridays bounce off the 200 ema is continuing.

The break above the 61.8% fibbo retrace has held, opening the way up to the 78.6% at 238.60....BUT first this very extended move - outside the upper 34 ema band - has to break the Weekly R1 at 236.93 and I expect a retracement before / if that happens. The snake is lower than at either of the last swing highs - on the 21st and 27th, confirming that a pull back is imminent.

I´m monitoring my 5m & 1m charts for a short signal for the retrace.

Good Morning,

I missed Fridays trading unfortunatley, spent the day at Donington park watching my son driving a single seater race car.

The setups to long looked great, I would definatley have entered around 232.75 and again at 233.3 a bounce off the weekly pivot, if i had been quick enough. Easy for me to say in hindsight!

I entered last night at at 234.76 something I never normally do, only manage any existing trades on Sunday and wait until Monday morning before entering new positions. Just that the price action/pattern looked very long to me and of course feeling greedy didn't want to wake up and find I had missed the move.

Set the trade with a 50 pip stop and so so far has worked out very well.

Price has broken 235.5 and has now stall now stalled at 236.23 area a resistance line on my chart.

238 is now firmly in view with the 61.8 fib of the big move down not far above.

Just entered new positions here at at 236 .03

Edit: Price has come down but seems to have found support at H5 235.79 also recent price action support here, lets hope it holds.

Forgot the charts!

The second one a line chart shows the reject of the declining trend line a great entry point.

Edit: sorry the second chart looks a bit messy, I should have removed a few lines before posting it!

4 hour Chart with a clearer view.

I have shown the fibs of the big move down calculated on the close of a daily chart, Just thought it interesting that the 50% coincides with 238 although it maybe means nothing lol.

Current daily chart.

Presently 236.50 is proving difficult to break. If it manages too, the declining trend line which is also the 237 area may act as resistance.

Price is climbing up up a trend line on the 5m chart giving good long scalps and is currently being sqeezed and should find direction soon!!

Just my view .

Edit: Well it broke out of the triangle !

So far two nice closed signals - both worth more my target of 100 pips.

The latest signal - a buy at 235.85 is still open, with the stop now at 236.00.

I´m not certain how far this will run as UJ is back at its earlier high and GU has just turned up. It was the falling GU earlier that prevented GJ from going higher. I guess that will depend on the ISM MAnufacturing data due at 10:00 edt

Edit:A partial for +50, stop to 236.25

Edit: Target hit + 100 with the Weekly R1 at 236.93, a daily R2 at 237.11 and the 237 level I´ll wait for the ISM

Very nice Trades Islander.

I have had a good day so far! too.
Chart showing why I love trend lines, the yellow arrows are all long entries.

T1 +41
T2 +26
T3 -25 Hit stop
T4 Entered 235.74 Still open stop at +10
T5 +39

No entry yet on the next touch as we could be running out of steam also very close to the upper blue trend line and R2.

Trade from last night still open stop at 234.95.

I was very close to having an initial SellSignal, but I wanted UJ to confirm by breaking under its Weekly R1 at 115.77. Instead, its just bounced up off it.

Patience is a word I keep hearing!

Thanks Wolf.

There´s a lot of resistance around the 237 level and IMO it will need a lift from UJ and GU to break above.

I´d like to see a pull back first if I´m going to take more longs.

I´ll just go with my signals - with the extra UJ confirmation ....then I dont I loose!

UJ finally broke back under its Weekly R1, so I´m short from 236.48, initial stop at 237.08, trailing.

Edit: Hit trailed stop at 236.78, closed -30 - it was only a partial position.
Whilst GU held again under its 61.8% retrace, after an hour, UJ went back above its W R1. Sufficient for today, time for a beer, back for FO tomorrow.

I agree it may pull back to 235.50 area personally I don't think it will go that far, I see it going to 238 before a significant pullback.

But I am just speculating I really don't know, I am staying long hopefully we will both profit.

I do see the trend line I showed on an earlier chart as a stumbling block to longs though.

Hit my trailed stop for -30. I´m thinking that it will range whilst the Dow can hold in the 14,000 area. Now its SunDowner time here....see you for the FO.