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forexlion -- GBP/JPY (trend readings)

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 4:52pm Sep 27, 2007 10:17am | Edited 4:52pm
GBP/JPY is the most volatile pair, and yet the most predictable one if you are trading only this pair.

In this very first post I have attached the two indicators that I use on my charts for basic trend analysis, though I love naked charts better. But for the purposes of explaining in easier terms I will be using these 2 indicators.

One is the xpMA and the other is the Time Series Forecast.

My first trade was given on tuesday evening which I will explain later in this thread, for 234.38 which is also a daily trendline and a deciding factor for future GJ moves.

Today as you can see in the attachment below we broke the 4 hour trendline triangle during the NZD news event, which was later reinforced by the GBP news event, thereby exposing the daily trendline 234.38 immediately.
Attached Image
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 xpMA.mq4   10 KB | 1,030 downloads
File Type: mq4 Time Series Forecast.mq4   3 KB | 1,082 downloads
File Type: mq4 T3MA.mq4   3 KB | 1,019 downloads
  • #2
  • Sep 27, 2007 10:18am Sep 27, 2007 10:18am
The trendlines given in red, were broken to the top side, so its all the way to 234.38 strong barrier.

This is the key barrier which decides the future course of action for GJ, whether it wants to continue its journey to 250 or will bounce back from here.

A break of 234.38 takes us to 250 or a bounce takes us back a 100 or so pips, overall we have a bullish trend developing here, considering the daily and weekly charts.
  • #3
  • Sep 27, 2007 10:23am Sep 27, 2007 10:23am
Okay here is the explanation to the the 2 indicators posted, which for GJ is best read on 1 hour charts.

A cross of tsf / t3 (xpMA) is taken as a signal and the direction of the signal is represented by the arrows.

The end targets can either be taken through 4 hour or daily trendlines or as per the method of your choice.

You are free to build on this simple setup according to your wishes.
  • #4
  • Sep 27, 2007 11:10am Sep 27, 2007 11:10am
And so the 3 day old journey is over at 234.38. We started the climb from 230.77

What comes next.

Well depending on where thursday closes, we can get the next target, if it closes above 234.38, specially around 234.60 or above then we can expect a move higher otherwise we might retrace.

GJ levels are always xx.15, xx.45, xx.60, xx.80

These levels decide what the next trend move will be, where xx can be anything.

These are standard levels for deciding future trend..
  • #5
  • Sep 27, 2007 11:19am Sep 27, 2007 11:19am
nice setup, look clean and easy..
  • #6
  • Sep 27, 2007 11:30am Sep 27, 2007 11:30am
Quoting forexlion
GBP/JPY is the most volatile pair, and yet the most predictable one if you are trading only this pair.

In this very first post I have attached the two indicators that I use on my charts for basic trend analysis, though I love naked charts better. But for the purposes of explaining in easier terms I will be using these 2 indicators.

One is the xpMA and the other is the Time Series Forecast.

My first trade was given on tuesday evening which I will explain later in this thread, for 234.38 which is also a daily trendline and a deciding factor for future GJ moves.

Today as you can see in the attachment below we broke the 4 hour trendline triangle during the NZD news event, which was later reinforced by the GBP news event, thereby exposing the daily trendline 234.38 immediately.
thaks for sharing your system forexlion.I have a few questions,how and when do u determine to exit your trades? how do u calculate/determine your resistance and support levels? do u use only 1hr time frame? thanks
  • #7
  • Sep 27, 2007 12:40pm Sep 27, 2007 12:40pm
well the best option here is to use the trendlines.

It took me a lot of experimentation on the charts to learn to draw the trendlines correctly, try playing around with 4 hour peaks and bottoms and daily peaks and bottoms.

I know its not easy, but not tough either, just takes time.
  • #8
  • Sep 27, 2007 12:46pm Sep 27, 2007 12:46pm
forexlion,do your indicator repaint? how long have u been using them? thanks:
  • #9
  • Sep 27, 2007 12:50pm Sep 27, 2007 12:50pm
Just concentrate on 1 currency pair always.

Overtime you will learn to forecast next possible moves even without the use of indicators, its not tough, just takes time.

And most importantly, try to avoid indicators, and look for alternate ways, like my mainstay was the tsf / t3 method, where i used to collect just about 30 to 40 pips a day and loose some at the same time.

When I went looking for alternates like trendlines, it changed my trading style entirely, i even went for the 1:50 leverage to keep a strict control on my overtrading habit.

Learning trendlines was not easy, it took a lot of plaing around with the charts off and on to get here.

I will not call it a system or trading method.

Its pure experimenting, ultimately the objective is always to read the correct trends after all.
  • #10
  • Sep 27, 2007 12:52pm Sep 27, 2007 12:52pm
Quoting fxking
forexlion,do your indicator repaint? how long have u been using them? thanks:

nope, none of the 2 indicator's repaints, i collected them from forex-tsd, i have to manually change timeframes to get them to repaint.

i wish.........
  • #11
  • Sep 27, 2007 12:55pm Sep 27, 2007 12:55pm
Quoting forexlion
nope, none of the 2 indicator's repaints, i collected them from forex-tsd, i have to manually change timeframes to get them to repaint.

i wish.........
thanks,i will try them out
  • #12
  • Sep 27, 2007 12:59pm Sep 27, 2007 12:59pm
here is the 1 hour version of the chart in post #1

http://i54.photobucket.com/albums/g9..._photo/gj2.gif
  • #13
  • Sep 27, 2007 1:14pm Sep 27, 2007 1:14pm
How long have you been using this method for successfully?
  • #14
  • Sep 27, 2007 1:52pm Sep 27, 2007 1:52pm
Quoting jay9170
How long have you been using this method for successfully?

June 2006 to september 2007 and counting.

My recent trade started from 230.77 and ended at 234.38, now i am waiting to see what happens next on the radar.
  • #15
  • Sep 27, 2007 3:16pm Sep 27, 2007 3:16pm
thanks for your shirring your strategy.
the xpMA not showing any thing, i don't know if i miss anything.
....
  • #16
  • Sep 27, 2007 3:35pm Sep 27, 2007 3:35pm
Quoting sami772
thanks for your shirring your strategy.
the xpMA not showing any thing, i don't know if i miss anything.
On xpMA set parameter MA_type = 0, MA_Aplied = 0 ... will work !
  • #17
  • Sep 27, 2007 4:54pm Sep 27, 2007 4:54pm
Quoting sami772
thanks for your shirring your strategy.
the xpMA not showing any thing, i don't know if i miss anything.

Extremely sorry, I forgot to add the T3MA.mq4 file in the first post, though you do not need this on the chart, but it contains the import functions to make the xpMA work better.

Just keep the t3ma.mq4 in the indicators directory, thats all. We do not use it on chart.
  • #18
  • Sep 27, 2007 6:34pm Sep 27, 2007 6:34pm
Okay, here is the trade plan for Friday, I would like to see how accurate I can be here in reading the trend.

First we will draw a trendline connecting the bottoms on weekly chart, the recent 2 bottoms.

Then we will add the autopivotindicator.mq4 ( can be found on FF ) and use daily pivots.

Then shift to 1 hour chart.

The interesting aspect is that the daily pivot and the weekly trendline are on the same level on 1 hour.

So the expected trade for today should be the Daily R1 or close to 235.16

I will go long from near the pivot for 235.16, since breaking this weekly trendline does not seem possible.


I would like to hear your comments on this.
  • #19
  • Sep 27, 2007 8:24pm Sep 27, 2007 8:24pm
Wonderful, first trade hits Pivot as expected, now its time to go back up to complete the task on hand.
  • #20
  • Sep 27, 2007 10:12pm Sep 27, 2007 10:12pm
whoopsie, pivot and trendline broke to expose daily S2 here.
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