Does 2.0000 Cloud Your Judgement | Forex Factory

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Does 2.0000 Cloud Your Judgement

  • #1
  • First Post: Dec 16, 2006 6:52am Dec 16, 2006 6:52am
This week the talk of predicted 2.0000 has clouded my judgement, always looking for the long!, waiting and expecting that fast reversal. Even today when my ‘daily chart’ shows a good possibility of a continued downward pressure next week, my mind keeps saying think LONG! How do you all deal with this?

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  • #2
  • Dec 16, 2006 7:47am Dec 16, 2006 7:47am
That is all part of the "DIRTY GAME", I personally dont listen to them and just look at the price action.

In fact I might start looking for a reversal when they are shooting for extremes, I think it is a strategy used to lure in more buyers and then take profits. Oil market went through the same, when it was at $77 they were calling for $100 oil. Where is it now ???
  • #3
  • Dec 16, 2006 7:48am Dec 16, 2006 7:48am
I lost pips (and bucks) a couple of weeks ago by doing the same thing. Common sense says that the U.S. dollar is weak- so I was determined to stay dollar-bearish. Unfortunatley...I'm learning that markets flucuate not based on common sense, but fear and greed.

Quote
How do you all deal with this?

I breached the psycological barrier by actually shorting the pound (contrary to my brain saying "long") and actually gaining some profit from it.

BTW...if the pound goes short in next weeks open I will trade it short again...and my fear and greed oscillator says I will make many pips.
Is your SL my TP?
  • #4
  • Dec 16, 2006 8:29am Dec 16, 2006 8:29am
Quoting Terri1
This week the talk of predicted 2.0000 has clouded my judgement, always looking for the long!, waiting and expecting that fast reversal. Even today when my ‘daily chart’ shows a good possibility of a continued downward pressure next week, my mind keeps saying think LONG! How do you all deal with this?

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Edward Allen Toppel in his book Zen in the Markets: Confessions of a Samuri Trader has an excellent quote simply saying that "Price is the language of the market". 'Listening' to where price is NOW and not being influenced by what different analysts, economists and CNBC presenters are saying is easier said than done.

For every analyst that will say that cable is going to 2.0 there are others that believe it is not. For every PhD economist that says the US economy is going into recession there is others that say opposite. For every commentator you hear on CNBC who is optimistic about the global economy there are others that are pessimistic. Attempting to predict the market whilst may be an interesting dialogue it is somewhat futile.

The issue is where is price now in relation to my trading model and not where may price go or not go. Hence the absolute importance of having clear entry and exit rules in your trading model.

The example that someone said in an earlier post about everyone saying that when oil broke through $70 it was going to $100. Of course it didn't go to $100. It may do in the future and it may not.

If a trader is overly concerned about where price is going to go in the future the likelyhood is that the trader does not have a clear set of entry and exit rules in their trading plan.

Monaco
  • #5
  • Dec 16, 2006 8:36am Dec 16, 2006 8:36am
Quoting Monaco
Edward Allen Toppel in his book Zen in the Markets: Confessions of a Samuri Trader has an excellent quote simply saying that "Price is the language of the market". 'Listening' to where price is NOW and not being influenced by what different analysts, economists and CNBC presenters are saying is easier said than done.

For every analyst that will say that cable is going to 2.0 there are others that believe it is not. For every PhD economist that says the US economy is going into recession there is others that say opposite. For every commentator you hear on CNBC who is optimistic about the global economy there are others that are pessimistic. Attempting to predict the market whilst may be an interesting dialogue it is somewhat futile.

Monaco
That's a very good quote. I have to admit that I'm one of those who waiting to short on $, but I'm learning from mistake. Believe only in the price
  • #6
  • Dec 16, 2006 9:34am Dec 16, 2006 9:34am
I often get caught. Many times during the past week I had STRONG indicators, oscillators pointing GBP-bearish. PLUS many USD-friendly news. Know what I did for many times?

Sat in front of the charts trying to figure out what was I doing wrong! Everybody saying 2.0 and all of my figures pointing South... hehehe...

As they say: "Trade what you see". Made a few bucks out of shorting GBP, though. Never actually traded USD-bullish during this week...
  • #7
  • Dec 16, 2006 9:45am Dec 16, 2006 9:45am
If you are going to trade fundamentals you must study them yourself. Don't rely on what other analysts say.

If you are going to trade technicals, again, you must study them yourself.

In my personal experience, when I listen to what analysts say about the future of the market I always make a mistake or misinterpret what they are trying to say.

Now I just trade what I see, not what I hear or read.

Terry
  • #8
  • Dec 17, 2006 12:37am Dec 17, 2006 12:37am
The 2.0000 mark is WAY to big of a mental barrier for ALOT of people. The gbp/usd is in a range right now. I dont feel that it will break the 2.0000 mark with out something crazy happening.



Rsq
  • #9
  • Dec 17, 2006 3:22am Dec 17, 2006 3:22am
Quoting rsq955
The 2.0000 mark is WAY to big of a mental barrier for ALOT of people. The gbp/usd is in a range right now. I dont feel that it will break the 2.0000 mark with out something crazy happening.

Rsq
Amen
  • #10
  • Dec 17, 2006 3:36am Dec 17, 2006 3:36am
Quoting Terri1
This week the talk of predicted 2.0000 has clouded my judgement, always looking for the long!, waiting and expecting that fast reversal. <o></o>
1. Ever notice that products are priced a penny below a round dollar amount? Example: $19.99 instead of $20.00, $99.99 instead of $100.00, etc. That's because round numbers carry an increased psychological significance for the average person. Thus, 2.000 carries more weight than 1.999 or the numbers below.

Quoting Terri1
Even today when my ‘daily chart’ shows a good possibility of a continued downward pressure next week, my mind keeps saying think LONG! How do you all deal with this?
Have you backtested your system? Do you know in your heart that it works? If the answer is yes, follow your system despite what the analysts are saying. If you don't believe in your system, then you will be swayed by the analysts, who are often people that can't hack it trading their own money, or the house's money for that matter. Also, as another poster pointed out, you can find analysts on both sides of any issue.
  • #11
  • Last Post: Dec 17, 2006 8:20am Dec 17, 2006 8:20am
Quoting Far From Average
1. Ever notice that products are priced a penny below a round dollar amount? Example: $19.99 instead of $20.00, $99.99 instead of $100.00, etc. That's because round numbers carry an increased psychological significance for the average person. Thus, 2.000 carries more weight than 1.999 or the numbers below.
Agreed.

In this market, figures like 1.9700 / 1.9800 are already loaded with psichological barriers. A milestone like 2.0000 would be zillion times stronger.

HOWEVER

If (when?) a titanium barrier like 2.0000 is broken, it easily becomes support and sky's now the new limit....
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