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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #13,501
  • Sep 27, 2007 2:46am Sep 27, 2007 2:46am
Quoting Wolf.
I am long from 232.5 tight stop 232.25

Edit: did not mean post this on its own it is meant to be on the post below.
Nice trade....hope youŽre locking in some profit as it looks as if todays M4 line at 234.08 is going to hold. My 1 min charts have all rolled over in cable, UJ and GJ, so IŽm short at 233.92 with a stop at 234.28 - just the other side of last weeks high. As soon as R1 (233.70 which acted as resistance earlier) is hit, IŽll pull my stop down to B/E +5 in case it bounces on up.
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  • #13,502
  • Sep 27, 2007 2:59am Sep 27, 2007 2:59am
Quoting k2low
seem this pair start try breaking out 234. congrate wolf, i think u get the awasome reward.
let's see how far it can go

The pair whether is going up or down doesn't matter for me. as long as i can get profit :.

Thanks k2low and I sure agree with the last line of your post.
  • #13,503
  • Sep 27, 2007 3:00am Sep 27, 2007 3:00am
Quoting Wolf.
The ellipse I have had on this chart for a few days just playing around with it. Shows the rangeing period and the compression of price. Maybe means nothing just like the way price contained itself within and now seems to be breaking out to the upside.

The Ma seems to be just turning up also, something you can see in the price action.

Just my visual interpretation please tell what you think, feel free to shoot me down in flames .
A very successful trader called Goldfish did some excellent work with ellipses in the Wave 59 forums - he called his interpretation the Ellipse Divina. It worked on correctly scaled charts by interpreting the entry into the ellipse relative to the major and minor axies and projecting the exit points. It was scaled according to a fixed price / time relationship

Other than high lighting the current contracting range, I cannot draw any special conclusion from yours....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon11.gif
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  • #13,504
  • Edited 3:38am Sep 27, 2007 3:04am | Edited 3:38am
Quoting Islander
Nice trade....hope youŽre locking in some profit as it looks as if todays M4 line at 234.08 is going to hold. My 1 min charts have all rolled over in cable, UJ and GJ, so IŽm short at 233.92 with a stop at 234.28 - just the other side of last weeks high. As soon as R1 (233.70 which acted as resistance earlier) is hit, IŽll pull my stop down to B/E +5 in case it bounces on up.
GM Islander,

Thanks it turn out well, yes I did take some off at 234 but still have 1/4 of my origonal position running. Also just taken another postition long at 233.44 playing the trend line.

I have a tight stop and will soon move +1, the t/l is also H3 area.

Edit: stop moved to +10

Edit: Stopped out +10
  • #13,505
  • Sep 27, 2007 3:17am Sep 27, 2007 3:17am
You had a nice entry on your short Islander, are you still in the trade.

Need you to take profit so mine can go up lol.
  • #13,506
  • Sep 27, 2007 3:22am Sep 27, 2007 3:22am
HereŽs what IŽve just seen to give me a small sell - the stop followed the 34 ema (agua) down, so now out for 18 pips and looking for the next signal. Once price breaks the 200ema (green) and that rolls over too, IŽll consider a larger position.

The dropping momentum of this TF and the 5m is keeping me focused on the short side for now.

The last rally was due to cables rally on the good UK housing data - UJ hardly moved.

Later, we have the US GDP and then New Home Slaes....both are important
Attached Image
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  • #13,507
  • Sep 27, 2007 3:54am Sep 27, 2007 3:54am
Quoting Islander
HereŽs what IŽve just seen to give me a small sell - the stop followed the 34 ema (agua) down, so now out for 18 pips and looking for the next signal. Once price breaks the 200ema (green) and that rolls over too, IŽll consider a larger position.

The dropping momentum of this TF and the 5m is keeping me focused on the short side for now.

The last rally was due to cables rally on the good UK housing data - UJ hardly moved.

Later, we have the US GDP and then New Home Slaes....both are important
Very nice analysis and trade rational Islander, you have an enviable grasp of the of the market mechanics.

I am slowly picking up on the movements of the other pairs and their influence on GJ.
  • #13,508
  • Edited 4:27am Sep 27, 2007 4:00am | Edited 4:27am
The bounce was up to the 61.8% retrace, then it turned back down, so IŽm short again from the break of the yellow line with a tight stop above the 61.8 turn.

Now to see IF it can continue down to the 233.00 / .15 zone where it spent 4 hours earlier - also now my 5m 200 ema, so the action there will be important.

Edit: Failed to break below the prior 233.34 low then bounced, out for B/E
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  • #13,509
  • Sep 27, 2007 4:16am Sep 27, 2007 4:16am
Quoting Wolf.
Very nice analysis and trade rational Islander, you have an enviable grasp of the of the market mechanics.

I am slowly picking up on the movements of the other pairs and their influence on GJ.
Thanks Wolf....I continually monitor GJ, UJ, € and cable, whilst focusing on trading GJ.

Now, I notice that cable has bounced of its 50% retace of this morningŽs rally, so unless UJ falls - its currently at 115.47 , exactly at its 5m 200ema, then IŽd expectGJ to bounce.

All this bouncing about between 235.50 and 227.50 levels that I have on my daily chart is hard work and IŽll be glad to get back to a decent move - but I guess weŽll just have to wait until the Big Dogs decide that its time to move out - I dont see them getting involved in this intra day stuff!
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  • #13,510
  • Sep 27, 2007 9:45am Sep 27, 2007 9:45am
HereŽs an update - the Snake / momentum is still falling and price has consolidated in the rectangle at the top of the screen shot. Now only the PC Index and the Chicago PMI left for tomorrow.

Is price consolidating for another push up OR is this distribution by the Big Dogs as they start thinking about moving the market down again?

Time will tell, but the Snake / momentum is falling and this is not good for the bulls.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sep 27 1hr 1030.gif Size: 21 KB
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  • #13,511
  • Sep 27, 2007 10:09am Sep 27, 2007 10:09am
Quoting Islander
HereŽs an update - the Snake / momentum is still falling and price has consolidated in the rectangle at the top of the screen shot. Now only the PC Index and the Chicago PMI left for tomorrow.

Is price consolidating for another push up OR is this distribution by the Big Dogs as they start thinking about moving the market down again?

Time will tell, but the Snake / momentum is falling and this is not good for the bulls.
I see what you mean although its starting to look long to me, attached one of your snake charts 1m please tell me what you think.

Taken 4 long scalps off the trend line since lunch, still long from last night and the last scalp I still have running.

It could of course suddenly plummet!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj 1m 270907.gif Size: 32 KB
  • #13,512
  • Edited 11:03am Sep 27, 2007 10:17am | Edited 11:03am
1 hour chart

We are solidly above the green trend in my view, I have a trend line off the daily chart (blue) which may be resistance and then 235.5 is the next level . Not forgeting R2, H5, M5, 235 and R3.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj 1h 270907.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #13,513
  • Sep 27, 2007 11:05am Sep 27, 2007 11:05am
Quoting Wolf.
I see what you mean although its starting to look long to me, attached one of your snake charts 1m please tell me what you think.

Taken 4 long scalps off the trend line since lunch, still long from last night and the last scalp I still have running.

It could of course suddenly plummet!
I actually watch the action on the 5m and only drill down to the 1m for clarification, especially around support / resistance areas

So hereŽs my 5m....first two equal highs just above the 234 level, snake much lower so ST sell. Later, two equal lows, but snake has higher lows so continuation buy as the main trend (for me the 200ema is still rising and price is above it) is still up....but loosing "power" - as per 1 hr Snake.

Also, I use a 0.35 level on the 5m Snake as a guide to actual "power" of the Snake http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
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  • #13,514
  • Sep 27, 2007 11:06am Sep 27, 2007 11:06am
Quoting Wolf.
1 hour chart

We are solidly above the green trend in my view, I have a trend line off the daily chart (blue) which may be resistance and then 235.5 is the next level . Not forgeting R2, H5, M5, 235 and R3.
I agree... This green line matches with a triangle's upper trendline in the daily. Looks like this baby is breaking out of this range in the 4HR chart (first candle open out of it).

*** WOW, so long out of this pair, so long out of this thread...
  • #13,515
  • Sep 27, 2007 11:09am Sep 27, 2007 11:09am
Whoops, hereŽs the chart....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sep 27 5m 1700.gif Size: 12 KB
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  • #13,516
  • Sep 27, 2007 11:12am Sep 27, 2007 11:12am
Quoting cesarnc
I agree... This green line matches with a triangle's upper trendline in the daily. Looks like this baby is breaking out of this range in the 4HR chart (first candle open out of it).

*** WOW, so long out of this pair, so long out of this thread...
Hi Cesarnc,

Welcome back to this thread, I always read but never posted when you were here.

Real nice to have somebody with '7034' posts agree with me!

Chris
  • #13,517
  • Sep 27, 2007 11:46am Sep 27, 2007 11:46am
Quoting Wolf.
Hi Cesarnc,

Welcome back to this thread, I always read but never posted when you were here.

Real nice to have somebody with '7034' posts agree with me!

Chris
Don't let the # of posts mislead you. Majority of them are jokes LOLL...

Actually I'd feel confortable with a daily close above the trendline, crack of 235.70 level even better... But who knows?

Real resumption of carry trades, however, only with UJ sound and safe well above 117, imo (117.30 / weekly 100SMA was the nut to crack on the way down)....
  • #13,518
  • Sep 27, 2007 6:14pm Sep 27, 2007 6:14pm
i need to know if the price fall down in geppy what is the nearest support line it will reverse in
  • #13,519
  • Sep 28, 2007 2:22am Sep 28, 2007 2:22am
Just after midnight - NY time there was a slightly lower high on the 5 min chart and a little after that there was a good push down, breaking the up-trend channel.

So far, price has halted at todays M1 - 232.40.

I expect the fall to continue with the 61.8% retrace as my first target - but it will need some selling to make a convincing break of the old red down trend line - now support - and the 200 ema (green)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sep 28 1hr 0300.gif Size: 19 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,520
  • Sep 28, 2007 3:07am Sep 28, 2007 3:07am
So hereŽs how I see it off my trading chart.....

the high was just above M3, price then pulled back to the 200ema and bounced but FAILED to make a higher high and then turned down and went through the 34 ema which was then flat / rolling over , so a Sell.

8 candles later it was outside of the first lower band and stalled at its 38% fibbo - so close / consider a ST scalp buy. Back up to the 34 ema & 23% fibbo - a continuation Sell.

16 candles later it hits M1 at 232.40 and reverses, the higher snake warned that this might happen and after a second attempt to fall - easily seen on the 1 min - a ST buy - against the main trend. Now to see how far this goes......

These moves were worth around 100 pips, 30, 60 and so far another 50 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sep 28 5m 0350.gif Size: 18 KB
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