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How will Aussie election affect AUD?

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 12, 2007 11:34am Sep 12, 2007 11:34am
How will the coming Aussie election affect AUD?What will happen if Howard fails this time?
make some money, have some fun, leave some footprints
  • #2
  • Sep 12, 2007 12:30pm Sep 12, 2007 12:30pm
wou...that wasnt on my observation, so thats why the gold might be so up,...when are the elections held...
its just money
  • #3
  • Sep 13, 2007 4:39pm Sep 13, 2007 4:39pm
They haven't called the date yet, but the elections are due before the end of the year, given that the emcumbent gov't is behind in the polls by about 12%, a loss to them is possibly factoring in already.
Another sunny 24 degrees C here,
If we aren't supposed to eat animals..... why are they made out of meat??
  • #4
  • Sep 13, 2007 10:56pm Sep 13, 2007 10:56pm
Personally I tend to agree with the prediciton that AUD/USD will keep rising till the election date. If the Labour Party wins, then the currency pair will begin to fall. The Labour Party tends to spend on the mass, the econ data were often in the red when they were in power.
make some money, have some fun, leave some footprints
  • #5
  • Sep 14, 2007 11:39am Sep 14, 2007 11:39am
from my logic, aud will fall in value, or at least remains at the same level.
A weaker aud will make people fealing more wealthy (having more money in they pockets).

Just an oppinion
"Abandon all hope, you who enter here" La Divina Commedia, Dante Alighieri
  • #6
  • Sep 21, 2007 2:28pm Sep 21, 2007 2:28pm
Quoting boostrade
Personally I tend to agree with the prediciton that AUD/USD will keep rising till the election date.
i agree on this,...so please if u know when are they held, please advise asap,...
its just money
  • #7
  • Sep 21, 2007 5:22pm Sep 21, 2007 5:22pm
Quoting boostrade
Personally I tend to agree with the prediciton that AUD/USD will keep rising till the election date. If the Labour Party wins, then the currency pair will begin to fall. The Labour Party tends to spend on the mass, the econ data were often in the red when they were in power.
If the ALP won the election we'd be in bed a lot more often with China... catch Rudd's Mandarin speech at APEC? That's our future.

past performance is no firm indicator of future performance - look at the states, Victoria in particular. After the neo-liberal economic Kennett era, Brumby (as treasurer and now as premier) and Bracks have not made any dramatic changes from the Kennett mantra and at the federal level they've promised to be just as conservative as the Howard government have been (Which I think is a shame seeming as the Howard government has failed miserably in expanding infrastructure right across the country).
  • #8
  • Edited 9:08pm Sep 21, 2007 8:53pm | Edited 9:08pm
Under the constitution, elections can be called within 3 weeks to 3 months ...

Quoting de123
i agree on this,...so please if u know when are they held, please advise asap,...
  • #9
  • Sep 21, 2007 8:55pm Sep 21, 2007 8:55pm
Everyone in Australia expects a recession soon. So, the new Government will get into major debt. To make matters worse, our manufacturing industry has been exported to overseas countries.

Quoting boostrade
Personally I tend to agree with the prediciton that AUD/USD will keep rising till the election date. If the Labour Party wins, then the currency pair will begin to fall. The Labour Party tends to spend on the mass, the econ data were often in the red when they were in power.
  • #10
  • Sep 21, 2007 9:07pm Sep 21, 2007 9:07pm
The State Labor governments claim to be economic conservatives but not social conservatives.

However, the only way they have been able to keep their leftwing social programs is due to the 10% tax raised by the federal government and given to the States. The States are getting into more and more debt and this is worsening all the time.

Howard tried to get them to balance their budgets and to pay down their debts. This worked for a while, but now they are getting irresponsible again and the State government debts are worsening - an indication of what Kevin Rudd will do.

Btw, Howard has poured record amounts into rail freight and roads. But the States just will not do their part. They prefer to pour billions into social programs to reinvent society. And this will get worse with Kevin Rudd's election. And as a Fabian Socialist he believes in:

- homosexual marriages (the first step will be civil unions)
- abortion
- euthanasia
- the Asianisation of Australia with 20 million immigrants
- breaking all links with Britain and Europe by changing the consitution, flag and national anthem

Of course, as a fabian, he no longer believes in nationalised industry. Instead, they see multi-national corporations as a key to break down national borders and to integrate the world into one race and one religion.

NO! Rudd is no conservative.

Quoting tayser
If the ALP won the election we'd be in bed a lot more often with China... catch Rudd's Mandarin speech at APEC? That's our future.

past performance is no firm indicator of future performance - look at the states, Victoria in particular. After the neo-liberal economic Kennett era, Brumby (as treasurer and now as premier) and Bracks have not made any dramatic changes from the Kennett mantra and at the federal level they've promised to be just as conservative as the Howard government have been (Which I think is a shame seeming as the Howard government has failed miserably in expanding infrastructure right across the country).
  • #11
  • Sep 22, 2007 6:21am Sep 22, 2007 6:21am
How are the states supposed to come to the table on infrastructure when Canberra is increasingly holding each state by its nutsack as you pointed out (the GST). Answer: they need to use debt markets, and before you blow another fuse, compare the level of debts in states now with the 70s when many Liberal governments were in Power... Hamer had some incredible ratio in the realm of 60% of debt to GSP - but the legacy of which is infrastructure (which now 30-40 years later needs replacing and expansion: especially in the areas of public transport).

Debt is not bad when it's manageable - to put it another way: it's like me saying to you that you're irresponsible for getting a mortgage to buy a house when the proper way to do it is by saving the full amount then doing a transaction without the bank! Debt when it's used for income generating purposes is GOOD.

I think you'll find Victoria at least is doing exactly what it said it would in reducing the state-based taxes: harmonising with NSW in areas such as payroll tax, stamp duties et al.

All governments are stupidly drunk on road building when oil prices are on an upwards curve, all governments fail on public transport and rail-based freight - Howard told us all about the AusLink programme and how it would create an inland rail expressway between the Port of Melbourne & the Port of Brisbane bypassing Sydney 5 years ago: it's only now seeing some work done on it.

Quote
And as a Fabian Socialist he believes in:

- homosexual marriages (the first step will be civil unions)
- abortion
- euthanasia
- the Asianisation of Australia with 20 million immigrants
- breaking all links with Britain and Europe by changing the consitution, flag and national anthem
Rudd's a Christian nut, I doubt he'd rush to support same-sex marriages and nor would the greater ALP... remember they're the political wing of the union movement and all the blue collars who live in the outer burbs and watch Kath and Kim probably wouldn't rush to it either...

Betty Windsor and her family have absolutely no relevance to Australia whatsoever: as evidenced by amount of times she visits.

I highly doubt any government would set a 20 million immigrant target given the current population of Australia is just over 20 million...
  • #12
  • Sep 22, 2007 6:59am Sep 22, 2007 6:59am
an interesting and relevant article:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...82-643,00.html

Aussie 'can ride cycle to $US1'


Peter Alford | September 22, 2007

THE Australian dollar is just starting out on a long-term appreciation that should take it to parity with the US dollar, according to leading Asia economist Kenneth Courtis.

It might take a decade and there would be corrections along the way, Dr Courtis told The Weekend Australian in Tokyo yesterday, but the Australian currency was on a long-term strengthening course, on the back of a strong commodities export cycle that could run for 15 or even 25 years.


The dollar was trading last night at US86.56, its third climb in a row, having punched its way up through the US87c mark in mid-morning. The move was more about weakness in the US dollar, rather than specific strength in the $A, which barely moved against other currencies.


The US dollar went into relative freefall yesterday in reaction to the US Federal Reserve's decision on Tuesday night to cut the Federal Funds target rate by a whopping 50 basis points to 4.75per cent, in response to anxiety in the credit market caused by the sub-prime mortgage meltdown. Most recent Fed rate adjustments, as in Australia by the Reserve Bank, have been by 25basis points.


Our dollar is now a full US8c above its level during the dip seen on August 17, when the Australian share market was being hammered by sub-prime nerves.


The Australian dollar, with its relatively high rate of interest, has been thrown around by the in-and-out rushes of the yen carry trade, in which investors borrow yen at low rates of interest and invest them in countries such as Australia, hopefully enjoying a foreign exchange gain as well. A downside from that is that every time the $A turns downwards, as it did on August 14, all the carry traders bale out and exacerbate the drop.

Dr Courtis said that in the longer term, the $A's appreciation against the $US would run along the same trend as other "commodity currencies" such as the Canadian dollar, the South African rand and the kiwi, but the strength and timing of movements would depend on local factors.
One reason the Canadian dollar broke up through parity with the US dollar this week was that, unlike Australia, the Canadians were running a current account and budget surplus.


But he said domestic economic buoyancy and a stronger dollar flowing from a long commodities boom need not bring high interest rates in their wake, because Australia's "very important strategic partnership with China" would mean most basic manufactured imports would come from that highly cost-competitive source.


Dr Courtis, former managing director of Goldman Sachs Asia and founding partner of Asia Capital Partners, is a bull on Australia's economic outlook.
But he warned of substantial policy challenges ahead. For the central bank, the policy test would be less about controlling inflation than speculative bubbles arising in property and other markets.


For Australian governments, he said, the challenge was to invest the proceeds of prosperity in education and training for a new services-based economy to grow alongside commodity production.
  • #13
  • Sep 22, 2007 7:05am Sep 22, 2007 7:05am
Actually Rudd is not a Christian. He is currently trying to be friendly with the Christian community until after the election in true Fabian form. Just wait and see. And he has announced that he wants to change the constitution (the flag and other national symbols will therefore be changed) and increase immigration as well. The Qld State Labor announced a couple of weeks ago that Australia must import up to 20 million Asians. Rudd didn't rebuke them.

Remember, he is a Fabian and thus believes in integration of geographical regions. So, to them Aus and NZ belong in Asia and must become Asian. Similarly they believe that Europe must become African & Middle Eastern; and North America must become Hispanic/Carribean.

He will also say 'sorry' to the indigenous folk, leading to $billions in claims. This will also affect the economy negatively. Rather, there should be a 'thank you day' for all the good we have done for them.

Go to Google and type in 'fabian + kevin rudd'

Further, the 10% tax (GST) is given in total to the States with no strings attached. They have wasted it, causing recent interest rate rises as have their debts which we all know will get worse ...

Quoting tayser

Rudd's a Christian nut, I doubt he'd rush to support same-sex marriages and nor would the greater ALP... remember they're the political wing of the union movement and all the blue collars who live in the outer burbs and watch Kath and Kim probably wouldn't rush to it either...

Betty Windsor and her family have absolutely no relevance to Australia whatsoever: as evidenced by amount of times she visits.

I highly doubt any government would set a 20 million immigrant target given the current population of Australia is just over 20 million...
  • #14
  • Sep 22, 2007 5:37pm Sep 22, 2007 5:37pm
LOL.....starting to sound like a Friday night at my place after many beers and bourbons..... And no one ever wins...
If we aren't supposed to eat animals..... why are they made out of meat??
  • #15
  • Sep 23, 2007 8:07am Sep 23, 2007 8:07am
The article is full of holes. Check out the responses to it located at http://www.news.com.au/comments/0,23...98-462,00.html

Quoting tayser
an interesting and relevant article:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...82-643,00.html

Aussie 'can ride cycle to $US1'

Peter Alford | September 22, 2007

THE Australian dollar is just starting out on a long-term appreciation that should take it to parity with the US dollar, according to leading Asia economist Kenneth Courtis.
  • #16
  • Sep 23, 2007 11:48am Sep 23, 2007 11:48am
Reader's comments from the Herald Sun - look out Economist Magazine!
  • #17
  • Sep 27, 2007 12:40am Sep 27, 2007 12:40am
Quoting surfer1
Everyone in Australia expects a recession soon. So, the new Government will get into major debt. To make matters worse, our manufacturing industry has been exported to overseas countries.
I disagree. I do not see anybody expecting a recession. The fundamentals of the Australian economy are far stronger than the United States. For five years running the country has had a budget surplus. For at least two of those years the surplus was $10B+ per annum.

The manfacturing sector evaporated long ago, just like in the US. It's irrelevent.

Right now Australia has what everybody wants. Uranium, oil, gold, coal. China will spend USD to continue to build out infrastructure whether the US goes into recession or not. China's expansion is the greatest single factor in Australia's current growth. The Chinese do not make decisions short sighted, so I suspect this growth will continue for a long long time to come.

Those of us on the ground may remember the Labor party had a similar lead going into the last election, and they lost. Watching this campaign is like watching a rerun.

The Labor party is a joke. Howard is a very smart guy. Don't underestimate Howard's popularity with the common man. It's the same popularity that will get Bill Clinton back in the White House. Whether these men are directly responsible for the good economic times people have experienced or not, it's only human nature to revert to what you know, especially if it's good times.

My crystal ball currently says odds are Howard 51, Rudd 49.
  • #18
  • Sep 27, 2007 5:45am Sep 27, 2007 5:45am
Quoting TheTopBloke
I disagree. I do not see anybody expecting a recession. The fundamentals of the Australian economy are far stronger than the United States. For five years running the country has had a budget surplus. For at least two of those years the surplus was $10B+ per annum.

The manfacturing sector evaporated long ago, just like in the US. It's irrelevent.

Right now Australia has what everybody wants. Uranium, oil, gold, coal. China will spend USD to continue to build out infrastructure whether the US goes into recession or not. China's expansion is the greatest single factor in Australia's current growth. The Chinese do not make decisions short sighted, so I suspect this growth will continue for a long long time to come.

Those of us on the ground may remember the Labor party had a similar lead going into the last election, and they lost. Watching this campaign is like watching a rerun.

The Labor party is a joke. Howard is a very smart guy. Don't underestimate Howard's popularity with the common man. It's the same popularity that will get Bill Clinton back in the White House. Whether these men are directly responsible for the good economic times people have experienced or not, it's only human nature to revert to what you know, especially if it's good times.

My crystal ball currently says odds are Howard 51, Rudd 49.
That an exceptional crystal ball......Howard may be a smart ( shifty) man, but he is also too old and too short, he is starting to look like an old gnome. As to the labor lead last time... maybe some more "children overboard" can be manufactured again to boost his popularity.
If we aren't supposed to eat animals..... why are they made out of meat??
  • #19
  • Sep 27, 2007 5:59am Sep 27, 2007 5:59am
The ALP only need a uniform swing of 4% to get in to government...

http://www.ozpolitics.info/election2...et-q3-2007.png

Note the younger baby-boomer & 'Howard battler' category - they're turning off Howard...

NSW and VIC look like they'll be spanking the Liberals and with a few seats picked up in QLD and SA, neo-tory Bush-loving Australia will be swept into the history books.
  • #20
  • Sep 27, 2007 5:13pm Sep 27, 2007 5:13pm
Quoting AndrewM
That an exceptional crystal ball......Howard may be a smart ( shifty) man, but he is also too old and too short, he is starting to look like an old gnome. As to the labor lead last time... maybe some more "children overboard" can be manufactured again to boost his popularity.
Being too old and too short and looking like a gnome is irrelevent. I wouldn't call him shifty, that implies flip flopping on issues, and I don't see that. Sly he certainly is.

People don't care about children being thrown overboard. People care about their mortgage payments. And while some people may argue that interest rates rising is hurting homeowners, you must bear in mind that interest rates are rising because the economy is hot and interest rates are still low relative to historical record.

As long as homeowners can continue to receive fat capital gains on their home sales, they will gladly shrug off interest rate rises. The real estate market will continue to see growth because, unlike the United States, Australian growth is not being produced by suss lending practices, but rather a genuine weath effect from a tight labor supply and massive demand for natural resources.
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