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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #32,961
  • Sep 26, 2007 11:39pm Sep 26, 2007 11:39pm
Quoting VishalJ
There's a lot more to this than just Yen - $ correlation. The last NFP - the environment was all about risk aversion. Bad NFP meant more bad news in addition to the already bad news about credit risks, housing problems, etc.

So Yen pairs dropped.. because people wanted to get their money out of carry trades and invest it somewhere else. $ pairs rocketed up,, obviously.. because of bad NFP.. that's not exactly good news for the $.

I would not trade any yen pairs on NFP news.. I will stick to only EUR/USD or GBP/USD.
thanks for your help vishalj,so apart fr NFP most of the news should cause GU and GJ to correlate,right?
  • #32,962
  • Sep 26, 2007 11:39pm Sep 26, 2007 11:39pm
p
Quoting my2buoys
I should have posted the price of the 4H 200EMA on my last chart. It is right at 233.29. Here is one more look at it. For those who were wondering where to put a stop on your shorts I would put it somewhere just above the 4H 200 EMA. I won't give you an exact price. I think you can figure that out for yourself.

M2B

not really m2b--this is how stop hunting works---never put your stop loss close to major S/R--there is a high possibility that it will take your stop out by a spike above 200ema and then cont journey further south---look for a close above 200ema--especially in 30min Tf and above
  • #32,963
  • Sep 26, 2007 11:40pm Sep 26, 2007 11:40pm
Quoting VishalJ
Ahh.. my bad then I've been staring at my news source.. for anything bad related to the Aussie $. It's way too high.. I can't believe that not one bank or mortgage company there is in trouble.

i keep them in chk
  • #32,964
  • Sep 26, 2007 11:42pm Sep 26, 2007 11:42pm
Quoting ssotiro
Thanks for the picture. For some reason, my 200 EMA is nowhere near that level. I wonder why that would be.

200ema is at 233.40ish
  • #32,965
  • Sep 26, 2007 11:44pm Sep 26, 2007 11:44pm
231.50

and even 229.10

I long to see you so bad to save my ass..
give me my pips back...
  • #32,966
  • Sep 26, 2007 11:48pm Sep 26, 2007 11:48pm
push up baby--push UP
  • #32,967
  • Sep 26, 2007 11:48pm Sep 26, 2007 11:48pm
Quoting ssotiro
Thanks for the picture. For some reason, my 200 EMA is nowhere near that level. I wonder why that would be.
Check to make sure that it is the 'exponential' moving average and make sure it is applied to the 'close'.

M2B
  • #32,968
  • Sep 26, 2007 11:48pm Sep 26, 2007 11:48pm
Quoting ssotiro
Thanks for the picture. For some reason, my 200 EMA is nowhere near that level. I wonder why that would be.
Looks like you've set it at SMA not EMA
Mono
  • #32,969
  • Sep 26, 2007 11:49pm Sep 26, 2007 11:49pm
I have a reverse at 233.50 ..... to close my shorts & go long from there..
my 4h 200ema is about 233.29 area..with MIG MT4...
  • #32,970
  • Sep 26, 2007 11:50pm Sep 26, 2007 11:50pm
Quoting my2buoys
I should have posted the price of the 4H 200EMA on my last chart. It is right at 233.29. Here is one more look at it. For those who were wondering where to put a stop on your shorts I would put it somewhere just above the 4H 200 EMA. I won't give you an exact price. I think you can figure that out for yourself.

M2B
the other side of the coin is that the pair tried to breach that level 5 times including now... So i am worried that it might just break it today...

Not what i want though

SL 233.65
give me my pips back...
  • #32,971
  • Sep 26, 2007 11:50pm Sep 26, 2007 11:50pm
Quoting fxking
thanks for your help vishalj,so apart fr NFP most of the news should cause GU and GJ to correlate,right?
Usually GU and GJ do correlate, but you have to understand that UJ is also a big factor. There have been so many times when GU goes down.. but GJ goes up because UJ is going up. Then there are times when UJ goes up.. but GU is down.. so GJ is stuck.

I would say, from my experience, I have seen more of a correlation in UJ and GJ.. GJ does get affected by GU is GU is moving wildly (like 30-40 pips) That's why my best trade was the interest rate cut - when GU went up, and UJ went up - so GJ went up 300 pips or so. That was fun
  • #32,972
  • Sep 26, 2007 11:50pm Sep 26, 2007 11:50pm
Looks like euro/usd just set yet another high. Airbus is going to have to start building planes out of cardboard in order to compete against boeing.
  • #32,973
  • Sep 26, 2007 11:53pm Sep 26, 2007 11:53pm
Quoting Lincoln_10
the other side of the coin is that the pair tried to breach that level 5 times including now... So i am worried that it might just break it today...

Not what i want though

SL 233.65
I think it will take some sort of major news event to push it through that barrier. A big increase in UK housing prices might do it, so I hope their housing market is following in the US's footsteps.
  • #32,974
  • Sep 26, 2007 11:53pm Sep 26, 2007 11:53pm
Quoting Hakuna Matata
p


not really m2b--this is how stop hunting works---never put your stop loss close to major S/R--there is a high possibility that it will take your stop out by a spike above 200ema and then cont journey further south---look for a close above 200ema--especially in 30min Tf and above
I know. That's why I didn't say how far above the 4H 200 EMA to place the stop. I wasn't just talking about 4 or 5 pips. I didn't give a specific number because I don't want anyone hammering me later on when there stop gets hit. When I say 'just above', I'm speaking in GBP/JPY terms, not EUR/USD terms. Some of the newer ones are going to have to learn what a few pips in GBP/JPY terms means. Newbies take note.

M2B
  • #32,975
  • Sep 26, 2007 11:53pm Sep 26, 2007 11:53pm
Quoting my2buoys
I should have posted the price of the 4H 200EMA on my last chart. It is right at 233.29. Here is one more look at it. For those who were wondering where to put a stop on your shorts I would put it somewhere just above the 4H 200 EMA. I won't give you an exact price. I think you can figure that out for yourself.

M2B

i think too
  • #32,976
  • Sep 26, 2007 11:54pm Sep 26, 2007 11:54pm
Quoting markam
I think it will take some sort of major news event to push it through that barrier. A big increase in UK housing prices might do it, so I hope their housing market is following in the US's footsteps.
hopefully my friend...

a negative housing prices would be what we bears want most probably..

but 0.3% should also do the trick.
give me my pips back...
  • #32,977
  • Sep 26, 2007 11:54pm Sep 26, 2007 11:54pm
Quoting markam
Looks like euro/usd just set yet another high. Airbus is going to have to start building planes out of cardboard in order to compete against boeing.
Speaking of airbus.

Airbus, the European plane-maker, warned today it could be forced to slash a further €1bn in costs because it was losing so much money on the dollar exchange rate, prompting fears it could cut more jobs and close more plants.
Success has a Thousand Fathers.
  • #32,978
  • Sep 26, 2007 11:55pm Sep 26, 2007 11:55pm
either s/l hit at b/e or 234.60 is my tgt for the day
  • #32,979
  • Sep 26, 2007 11:57pm Sep 26, 2007 11:57pm
Quoting Lincoln_10
the other side of the coin is that the pair tried to breach that level 5 times including now... So i am worried that it might just break it today...

Not what i want though

SL 233.65
Yes, it could. That's why we use stop losses and hope the trade goes in our direction. Trading is about probabilities, not guarantees. Forex is not for the faint of heart. Don't start worrying. That is the beginning of indecision and failure in this market. Stay confident even through your losses and you'll do fine.

M2B
  • #32,980
  • Sep 26, 2007 11:59pm Sep 26, 2007 11:59pm
I on the other hand want 233.40 to hit so it can trigger shorts. Come on baby hit me.
Mono
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