Just thought I would start a blog of my more or less random musings on the forex market. For today, I thought I would look at the USD/CAD. Personally I think we are due for a retracement about now. First it needs to get a decent close above resistance at 1.0040 at least on a 4 hour chart. If, and it is a big if, we can get that close, I would target about 1.0250. At that price we will probably stall, even if only for a little while. With the only loony news of note being the GDP figures on friday (incidentally, the strong loony may now be at a point where it will start to negatively effect future GDP, although high oil prices could counter this effect somewhat as the US has no choice other than to buy Canadian crude), the only news to affect the pair will be US data, and I personally think a lot of the bad news for the US is already priced into the market, so I think there would be an upside bias on any news that is even vaguely dollar bullish. It looks I guess time will tell 
Axel.
Axel.
) It will be interesting to see which way it breaks out. I personally think it will break up. The Dow looks set to continue its march ever upwards with the Fed lowering rates (incidentally the S&P is recovering from its fall from 1550 after making a double top with its previous high back in 2000, so it will probably go through this time), and this will probably result in the carry trades resuming. Personally I am positioning myself for the breakout to the upside.