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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #32,301
  • Sep 26, 2007 1:57am Sep 26, 2007 1:57am
Quoting auslanco
UK news today
Which is in 1:30 from now. Hows your long holding up?
Craazy
  • #32,302
  • Sep 26, 2007 1:59am Sep 26, 2007 1:59am
Quoting craazy
Which is in 1:30 from now. Hows your long holding up?
good.. holding it tight
  • #32,303
  • Sep 26, 2007 1:59am Sep 26, 2007 1:59am
Quoting craazy
Which is in 1:30 from now. Hows your long holding up?
you worry a lot, you need to chill out and relax, if you don't feel comfortable.. trade smaller lots or even better train more on demo.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #32,304
  • Sep 26, 2007 1:59am Sep 26, 2007 1:59am
Quoting Hakuna Matata
lol--yeah--dont mind some right now
Karmo--u can set it up?
lilmoe is a pro, he'll help us out
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #32,305
  • Sep 26, 2007 2:00am Sep 26, 2007 2:00am
AUS --chk PM
  • #32,306
  • Sep 26, 2007 2:01am Sep 26, 2007 2:01am
Quoting karmostaji
you worry a lot, you need to chill out and relax, if you don't feel comfortable.. trade smaller lots or even better train more on demo.
Very true... Usually have the stomach for this movement, just had several nights of lack of sleep... probably getting to me haha Chill Pill Time
Craazy
  • #32,307
  • Sep 26, 2007 2:01am Sep 26, 2007 2:01am
Honestly, instead of eating fruits I think we need to chat with some investment bank staff.. anyone here know such ppl? : Stuff like 'We're selling 2 yards of EUR/USD later today' would definitely help give us an insight into what's going to happen lol

Like today, when UJ shot up in the morning because of Nomura downgrades and 7 funds buying UJ.. me and markam (and karmo too) were puzzled as to why that happened.
  • #32,308
  • Sep 26, 2007 2:02am Sep 26, 2007 2:02am
Hello,

Can someone educate me here... I understand that a change in GDP can cause some pip movement... but when, how and why will a no change cause pip movement?

Thanks!
  • #32,309
  • Sep 26, 2007 2:02am Sep 26, 2007 2:02am
Quoting craazy
Very true... Usually have the stomach for this movement, just had several nights of lack of sleep... probably getting to me haha Chill Pill Time
set your SL and TP, sit tight and smile and have some patience.. no miracle is going to happen.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #32,310
  • Sep 26, 2007 2:04am Sep 26, 2007 2:04am
Wonder what he would be doing here... he may be bizi dealing out some lots for his own profits if he knew whats comin up!




Quoting VishalJ
Honestly, instead of eating fruits I think we need to chat with some investment bank staff.. anyone here know such ppl? : Stuff like 'We're selling 2 yards of EUR/USD later today' would definitely help give us an insight into what's going to happen lol

Like today, when UJ shot up in the morning because of Nomura downgrades and 7 funds buying UJ.. me and markam (and karmo too) were puzzled as to why that happened.
  • #32,311
  • Sep 26, 2007 2:06am Sep 26, 2007 2:06am
Quoting apume
Hello,

Can someone educate me here... I understand that a change in GDP can cause some pip movement... but when, how and why will a no change cause pip movement?

Thanks!

Definition

An indicator for broad overall growth in the United Kingdom. Robust UK GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity, and therefore a high demand for currency. Economic expansion also raises concerns about inflationary pressure, which generally prompts monetary authorities to increase interest rates. This means that positive GDP readings are generally bullish for a given currency, while negative readings are bearish.
Due to the untimeliness of this report and because data on GDP components are available beforehand, the actual GDP figure is usually well anticipated. But given its overall significance GDP has the tendency to move the market upon release, acting to confirm or upset economic expectations. Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of activity that is generally associated with a healthy economy. However economic expansion also raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may lead to monetary policy tightening.
The headline figure for UK GDP is an annualized percentage growth rate.
Technical note : GDP is the total market value of goods and services produced in the U.K. within a given period after deducting the cost of goods and services used up in the process of production. Therefore, GDP excludes intermediate goods and services and considers final aggregates only.
Relevance: http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/.../threestar.gif Tends to move markets on release
Release schedule : 8:30 (GMT); quarterly, released approximately 3.5 weeks after end of quarter
Source of report : U.K. Office of National Statistics
  • #32,312
  • Sep 26, 2007 2:11am Sep 26, 2007 2:11am
Thanks AUS - so I would assume that a no change can pretty much have a bullish effect... correct?


Quoting auslanco
Definition

An indicator for broad overall growth in the United Kingdom. Robust UK GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity, and therefore a high demand for currency. Economic expansion also raises concerns about inflationary pressure, which generally prompts monetary authorities to increase interest rates. This means that positive GDP readings are generally bullish for a given currency, while negative readings are bearish.
Due to the untimeliness of this report and because data on GDP components are available beforehand, the actual GDP figure is usually well anticipated. But given its overall significance GDP has the tendency to move the market upon release, acting to confirm or upset economic expectations. Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of activity that is generally associated with a healthy economy. However economic expansion also raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may lead to monetary policy tightening.
The headline figure for UK GDP is an annualized percentage growth rate.
Technical note : GDP is the total market value of goods and services produced in the U.K. within a given period after deducting the cost of goods and services used up in the process of production. Therefore, GDP excludes intermediate goods and services and considers final aggregates only.
Relevance: http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/.../threestar.gif Tends to move markets on release
Release schedule : 8:30 (GMT); quarterly, released approximately 3.5 weeks after end of quarter
Source of report : U.K. Office of National Statistics
  • #32,313
  • Sep 26, 2007 2:11am Sep 26, 2007 2:11am
Quoting Hakuna Matata
AUS --chk PM
Surething bro.. Thanks
  • #32,314
  • Sep 26, 2007 2:12am Sep 26, 2007 2:12am
1. Wednesday, September 26th, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4.30 a.m New York time we will have UK GDP coming out which is going to be 3rd and final revision for the second quarter. It is expected to come out at 0.8%, same as last month. If it comes out at 0.9% or higher, that would set a new record high for GDP since 2004, and I think based on that GBP/USD may gain 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the UK GDP reads 0.7, which would be somewhat disappointing, GBP/USD may possibly go down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. However, with the deviation as much as 0.2 either direction we may easily see a move on GBP/USD by as much as 50 or 70 pips or more but most likely this indicator will come out at 0.8 because it is a revision, and most likely this is going to be a no trade. Unless you really want to wake up, you may just skip this one.

SUMMARY:
* Report: U.K. GDP
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be 0.9% or higher
* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be 0.7% or lower
* If the trigger is hit, expect 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
  • #32,315
  • Sep 26, 2007 2:14am Sep 26, 2007 2:14am
Just some tidbits:

* 26 Sep 07: 07:00GMT (SGA) - FX NOW! USD/JPY, EUR/JPY Flows - USD/JPY supported by Toushin; Kampo, pension funds talks

USD/JPY remains bid on talks of good toushin related demand, with talks of Japanese investors demand, now at 114.87-90. talks of Japan pension funds, postal funds and Kampo at 114.40-50 supporting downside. Offers still at 115.00-10, but stoploss above 115.20. More toushin demand seen tomorrow and Friday. Recap: tom 27 Sept: some Y400b worth of toushin target amount, Friday 28 Sept: some Y250b; totalling some Y650bn or >$5.5bln. Not surprised to hear of more Japanese securities houses, brokerages, lifers and trust banks buying Cross/JPY on dips.

I'll be watching for this as well:

Focus on Saudi Central Bank news conference at 1030GMT Time GMT, or 1.30PM Riyadh Time (now 09.33AM), with some speculation that Saudi Arabia will reiterate USD peg and is not happy with speculation in recent days that it will drop the peg.
  • #32,316
  • Sep 26, 2007 2:16am Sep 26, 2007 2:16am
I have the session pivot at 231.15. anyone concur with that?
"Quitting while you are ahead is not the same as quitting".
  • #32,317
  • Sep 26, 2007 2:24am Sep 26, 2007 2:24am
Quoting Radarnett
I have the session pivot at 231.15. anyone concur with that?
Mine shows 231.12, so it must be about right.
  • #32,318
  • Sep 26, 2007 2:24am Sep 26, 2007 2:24am
long from 231.86
  • #32,319
  • Sep 26, 2007 2:26am Sep 26, 2007 2:26am
Quoting Hakuna Matata
long from 231.86

long signal confired togethre with brk out
lets ride this now---move guys--make some space for the latecomer--where can i sit?? lol
  • #32,320
  • Sep 26, 2007 2:27am Sep 26, 2007 2:27am
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
Mine shows 231.12, so it must be about right.
Thx cruiser
"Quitting while you are ahead is not the same as quitting".
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