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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #31,761
  • Sep 25, 2007 6:40am Sep 25, 2007 6:40am
Tuesday, September 25th, 2007 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10.00 a.m. we will have U.S. Existing Home Sales and U.S. Consumer Confidence coming out. Home sales is pretty much number 1 topic right now, and I believe Existing home sales is going to be more important than the consumer confidence; however, the consumer confidence has to be in tune with home sales. If it is conflicting too much, that would be a little messy trade. Existing Home Sales are expected to come out at 5.5 M. If they come out at 5.8 M or higher, that would actually be a significant rebound, better reading than the last two months, and I think based on that GBP/USD may possibly go down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the home sales disappoints, and reads 5.2 million, that would actually be a quite big jump down from 5.75 million last month, and a reading of 5.2 million or lower would probably drive GBP/USD up by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Again, if U.S. consumer confidence conflicts, and that there is some really important price levels, the move may be a little bit choppy, however, if they don't conflict, there is a pretty good chance to hit my price projections.

SUMMARY:
* Report: U.S. Existing Home Sales
* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be 5.8 M or higher.
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be 5.2 M or lower.
* If the trigger is hit, expect 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
  • #31,762
  • Sep 25, 2007 6:40am Sep 25, 2007 6:40am
Quoting auslanco
wow.. sure it is. Thanks bro. I actually thought You were taking the piss on me
You can never have enough screen space though I do prefer using the bigger widescreens. They can display the resolution of two monitors.

Anyway, I hire my room out as a solarium when I'm not trading.
  • #31,763
  • Sep 25, 2007 6:41am Sep 25, 2007 6:41am
Quoting persian.forex
back to up???

i closed @ 230.05
Patience mate.. there's bound to be some profit taking/retracements .. can't expect GJ to go down non stop
  • #31,764
  • Sep 25, 2007 6:44am Sep 25, 2007 6:44am
Btw, there are huge EUR/USD option expires tomorrow... at 1.4150. What do you think of that zoran/aus? Good time to buy EU before they expire?
  • #31,765
  • Sep 25, 2007 6:49am Sep 25, 2007 6:49am
Quoting Zoran
You can never have enough screen space though I do prefer using the bigger widescreens. They can display the resolution of two monitors.

Anyway, I hire my room out as a solarium when I'm not trading.
Yehh.. I love the WS.. Since I bought'em my stress level has reduced by 50% I got a treadmill front of my workdesk, which I bought 4 months ago. But still it got it's original rapping
  • #31,766
  • Sep 25, 2007 6:49am Sep 25, 2007 6:49am
hi everyone, maaaaaaan i sure slept... lol

i managed to enter last night at 231.19
TP1 achieved.
TP2 still open (i should have closed it when 30m qqe crossed up, but was too busy sleeping. lool, that's just luck)
well, m30 qqe is about to cross back down now, so i'll hold on to my other positions.
TP2 140+ pips
  • #31,767
  • Sep 25, 2007 6:53am Sep 25, 2007 6:53am
US News today
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  • #31,768
  • Sep 25, 2007 7:01am Sep 25, 2007 7:01am
Quoting Val144
That is new version of Pivot indicator. It automatically switches to Tokyo, London or NY pivot at right time.
You must set BrokerGMToffset variable accordingly.
If you want to manage manually set PivotAuto=false & DayStartHour = to right number
Comments can be stopped by setting ShowComment=false

Any feedback are well come.

GL to all of you

What are the settings for the numbers?
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #31,769
  • Sep 25, 2007 7:02am Sep 25, 2007 7:02am
just a ball park answer is ok.
What % return do you make a day, or per 100 pips. The reason I ask is that I was wondering if my money management is doing ok.

I have been profitable over the last 6 trading days using the systems here and a little scalping with the trend. 12.68% return.
Is there a benchmark as so much per day or per trade or per 100 pips that is viewed as decent money management??? Or is it as long as you are positive you are doing ok???

thanks for the time

May the pips be with you
  • #31,770
  • Sep 25, 2007 7:04am Sep 25, 2007 7:04am
could we see a bounce here?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #31,771
  • Sep 25, 2007 7:08am Sep 25, 2007 7:08am
WORTHY OF CONSIDERATION:


Home Prices/Existing Home Sales And The Markets
Background

From The August 28 release: "The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index Posts a Record Annual Decline in the 2nd Quarter of 2007''.

“The pullback in the U.S. residential real estate market is showing no signs of slowing down,” says Robert J. Shiller, Chief Economist at MacroMarkets LLC. “The year-over-year decline reported in the 2nd quarter of 2007 for the National Home Price Index is the lowest point in its reported history, which dates back to January 1987. On a regional level 17 of the 20 metro areas are showing declines in their annual growth rate from what was reported in May.”

From the Aug 27 NAR release: "Total existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – slipped 0.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.75 million units in July from an upwardly revised pace of 5.76 million in June, and are 9.0 percent below the 6.32 million-unit level in July 2006".

Foreground

Equity markets tanked on both days with the negative reports and GBP/JPY went right along with them,losing over 800 pips in the process. Existing home sales was the only US data release that day while the Fed minutes from the Aug 17 meeting (when the discount rate was lowered and the fed warned on the economy) were released several hours after the home price report.

Given that the equity markets responded negatively today to the nervous sounding IMF report, I will go out on a limb here: If those reports look bad again (especially prices and if YoY sales show a further decline) it seems extremely likely that equity markets and GBP/JPY-due to negative equity driven cross border currency flow (aka carry trades)-will have a repeat performance of the Aug 27-28 debacle.

Seems simple enough to me-

Thanks for reading my post and please use the box on the left to vote. If you're interested in finding out about my trade room, blog and trading primer contact [email protected]
  • #31,772
  • Edited 7:20am Sep 25, 2007 7:09am | Edited 7:20am
Quoting moneymagnet
What are the settings for the numbers?
if Tokyo = 0 + BrokerGMToffset
london = 9 = Tokyo +9
NY = 14 = London +5
Is that OK?
It’s just emotions & money
  • #31,773
  • Sep 25, 2007 7:10am Sep 25, 2007 7:10am
New 1 HR momentum was bullish and we saw a quick retractment Or it was initial signs of trend reversal
  • #31,774
  • Sep 25, 2007 7:12am Sep 25, 2007 7:12am
i re entered at the 1 hr 5sma

edit i also been using (my choice not AUS )the 15M 21 ema as a guide to enter also.
waiting on the housing data


Quoting mansaf6
New 1 HR momentum was bullish and we saw a quick retractment Or it was initial signs of trend reversal
  • #31,775
  • Sep 25, 2007 7:17am Sep 25, 2007 7:17am
Quoting Cardiac
just a ball park answer is ok.
What % return do you make a day, or per 100 pips. The reason I ask is that I was wondering if my money management is doing ok.

I have been profitable over the last 6 trading days using the systems here and a little scalping with the trend. 12.68% return.
Is there a benchmark as so much per day or per trade or per 100 pips that is viewed as decent money management??? Or is it as long as you are positive you are doing ok???

thanks for the time

May the pips be with you
I target for 15% account growth per month. I have been achieving this level for the last 18 months . It used to take around 200 pips a week for me to achieve this level until August. In August I decided to cut down my position size as a precaution to unpredictable hi volatile markets swings. Now it takes about 300-400 pips per week to achieve the 15% growth.
But so far I achieve my targets without much problems.
  • #31,776
  • Sep 25, 2007 7:17am Sep 25, 2007 7:17am
Dow futures are down before the news
Down 31 Fair Value 16
  • #31,777
  • Sep 25, 2007 7:18am Sep 25, 2007 7:18am
Quoting Cardiac
just a ball park answer is ok.
What % return do you make a day, or per 100 pips. The reason I ask is that I was wondering if my money management is doing ok.

I have been profitable over the last 6 trading days using the systems here and a little scalping with the trend. 12.68% return.
Is there a benchmark as so much per day or per trade or per 100 pips that is viewed as decent money management??? Or is it as long as you are positive you are doing ok???

thanks for the time

May the pips be with you
I target for 15% account growth per month. I have been achieving this level for the last 18 months . It used to take around 200 pips a week for me to achieve this level until August. In August I decided to cut down my position size as a precaution to unpredictable hi volatile markets swings. Now it takes about 300-400 pips per week to achieve the 15% growth.
But so far I have been achieving my targets without much problems.

By the way , I always calculate my SL to maximum 2% on every single trade.
  • #31,778
  • Sep 25, 2007 7:22am Sep 25, 2007 7:22am
well we may be close to the same trade size per account dollar. If i get 300 pips per week the that would place me about 12% per month. do you use a % of account balance per trade?

Quoting auslanco
I target for 15% account growth per month. I have been achieving this level for the last 18 months . It used to take around 200 pips a week for me to achieve this level until August. In August I decided to cut down my position size as a precaution to unpredictable hi volatile markets swings. Now it takes about 300-400 pips per week to achieve the 15% growth.
But so far I achieve my targets without much problems.
  • #31,779
  • Sep 25, 2007 7:29am Sep 25, 2007 7:29am
Quoting Cardiac
well we may be close to the same trade size per account dollar. If i get 300 pips per week the that would place me about 12% per month. do you use a % of account balance per trade?
Even if you do 5% per month, You are doing better than 90% of the world's biggest hedge funds

I first calculate the 2% of my account balance for my SL , Then I do my position sizing accordingly .
  • #31,780
  • Sep 25, 2007 7:31am Sep 25, 2007 7:31am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting auslanco
Even if you do 5% per month, You are doing better than 90% of the world's biggest hedge funds

I first calculate the 2% of my account balance for my SL , Then I do my position sizing accordingly .
come on Aus's you not gonna make cardiac read all 2000+ pages.
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