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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #13,441
  • Sep 21, 2007 12:55am Sep 21, 2007 12:55am
Stopped out of my trade last night at 230.50 +90, long this morning from 231.94 a break of the 5m trend line.
  • #13,442
  • Sep 21, 2007 1:02am Sep 21, 2007 1:02am
Earlier this morning I was short, but the 230.50 area was proving difficult to break. To get a better idea, I drilled down to the 1 min chart and found the snake showing signs of bullish divergence and so I closed my position.

The change of slope of the 34 ema (agua) to upwards and its providing of support gave me a buy signal which was easier to see than on the 5 min chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,443
  • Edited 1:35am Sep 21, 2007 1:25am | Edited 1:35am
Quoting Islander
Earlier this morning I was short, but the 230.50 area was proving difficult to break. To get a better idea, I drilled down to the 1 min chart and found the snake showing signs of bullish divergence and so I closed my position.

The change of slope of the 34 ema (agua) to upwards and its providing of support gave me a buy signal which was easier to see than on the 5 min chart.
Good morning Islander,

Very nice entry, were do you see this going.

Our position is also a retest of the 1h trend line so could turn into a significant move. I have a weekly trend line around which price has faltered and the weekly pivot, next H4/R1 231.90. If it make it above 232! Maybe Zoran is back in business with his prediction.

R2 234.48 seems a good initial target if it makes it past 232
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  • #13,444
  • Sep 21, 2007 1:40am Sep 21, 2007 1:40am
Updated chart with the fibs redrawn.
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  • #13,445
  • Sep 21, 2007 1:51am Sep 21, 2007 1:51am
I have the monthly pivot at 232.30 and off my 30 min chart, the 61.8% retrace at 232.40, so thatīs my first target....also the Euros now dropping , expect cable to follow
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,446
  • Sep 21, 2007 1:56am Sep 21, 2007 1:56am
Quoting Islander
I have the monthly pivot at 232.30 and off my 30 min chart, the 61.8% retrace at 232.40, so thatīs my first target....also the Euros now dropping , expect cable to follow

61.8 has shown resistance, strong momentum though so should break it.

But I could be wrong.
  • #13,447
  • Sep 21, 2007 2:15am Sep 21, 2007 2:15am
Quoting Wolf.
61.8 has shown resistance, strong momentum though so should break it.

But I could be wrong.
Agreed, but Iīm out for now....some divergence showing on 1 min, BUT the trendīs still up......will it make it to the 78.6% at 233.18....twt.

IF it drops back to the 232 level again, then it will be under the 1 min 34ema and that ema will have rolled over - first signs of a pull back.

Iīd need to see a similar set up on UJ and cable to take a short.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,448
  • Sep 21, 2007 6:49am Sep 21, 2007 6:49am
Quoting Wolf.
Good morning Islander,

Very nice entry, were do you see this going.

Our position is also a retest of the 1h trend line so could turn into a significant move. I have a weekly trend line around which price has faltered and the weekly pivot, next H4/R1 231.90. If it make it above 232! Maybe Zoran is back in business with his prediction.

R2 234.48 seems a good initial target if it makes it past 232
Made a high of 233.50 'R2' and also made my day.

Exited half my position at this level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,449
  • Sep 21, 2007 7:13am Sep 21, 2007 7:13am
Just noticed I wrote R1 on my attached charts it is meant to say 'R2'
  • #13,450
  • Sep 23, 2007 11:23pm Sep 23, 2007 11:23pm
Good morning. Cable held above its 5m 34ema support and then rallied higher and hit its daily R2. This pulled GJ off its 233 level and up to M3 at 233.50 - but UJ is not following and still looking heavy and will probably spoil any further rally unless it reverses.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,451
  • Sep 23, 2007 11:56pm Sep 23, 2007 11:56pm
With Japan on holiday, it was the Frankfurters buying that woke the market up. The Euro hit its last weeks high at 1.4130 and turned back. Cable hit R2 and spiked above and can still go to 2.0364 before hitting its recent high.

UJ remains flat and under its daily pivot......better wait to see what the LO brings.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,452
  • Edited 12:25am Sep 24, 2007 12:07am | Edited 12:25am
Cable and Euro now pulling back, thus in line with UJ. Sold at 233.20 with stop at 233.60

Edit: Closed for +25 when it stalled as UJ failed to push lower.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,453
  • Sep 24, 2007 12:29am Sep 24, 2007 12:29am
Good Morning,

Short 233.10 stop 60

Reject of the Frankfurt, London opening range and 5m declining trend line.
  • #13,454
  • Sep 24, 2007 12:41am Sep 24, 2007 12:41am
Sold again at 233.08, stop at 233.30. Iīll keep taking these hit and run trades whilst its ranging.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,455
  • Sep 24, 2007 12:43am Sep 24, 2007 12:43am
Moved my stop to +1 need to break this lower 5 m trend line.
  • #13,456
  • Sep 24, 2007 12:48am Sep 24, 2007 12:48am
Quoting Wolf.
Moved my stop to +1 need to break this lower 5 m trend line.
Hi Wolf - Iīve moved my stop too, now we need UJ to continue down and cable to break under 0255 and weīll have a chance of a better move.

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

Edit: Taken partials for +18....looks like cableīs going to bounce and UJ stalled
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,457
  • Sep 24, 2007 12:55am Sep 24, 2007 12:55am
Morning Islander.

Must admit I get confused as to which pair should go up down or sideways to affect GY so just tend to trade GJ on its own. Definatley enjoy your analysis though, very helpful.

On a side note I sure hope GbpUsd continues to rise as I am currently +271 on that pair.
  • #13,458
  • Sep 24, 2007 1:14am Sep 24, 2007 1:14am
Quoting Wolf.
Morning Islander.

Must admit I get confused as to which pair should go up down or sideways to affect GY so just tend to trade GJ on its own. Definatley enjoy your analysis though, very helpful.

On a side note I sure hope GbpUsd continues to rise as I am currently +271 on that pair.

Yes, the movements of Cable and UJ can be confusing and I agree that it is easiest just to watch GJ. I post the info just to help other traders to be aware of their influence in what happens with GJ. The best moves come when cable and UJ are moving in the same direction.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,459
  • Sep 24, 2007 1:25am Sep 24, 2007 1:25am
When there is no clear trend I often drill down to my 1 min chart and take short "hit and run" trades until I see a trend starting. Hopefully Iīll still have a position open and will then let it run and add to it on pull backs.

This is whatīs happened so far....UJīs not letting a proper fall happen.....yet
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,460
  • Sep 24, 2007 1:26am Sep 24, 2007 1:26am
Stopped out of my GU trade for +242 trading that pair Jacko style with a 75 pip trail, so far it is working well, will now wait for a retrace.

Anyway hopefully this will help our GJ shorts.

Going to get some breakfast now my stomach think my throats been cut lol, I have been up since 0645.
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