Alternative Trend Following- A Journal

Update 1 : Moved Stops to 1.9998, guarantees 106pips
Update 2 : Stopped @ 1.9998, +106pips

SEP
Realised Loss : -0pips
Realised gains: +514pips

YTD
Realised Loss : -295pips
Realised gains: +519pips

Hi,

New position for a new week, shorted AUDJPY. I'm expecting all USD related pairs to retrace as well... but i have decided to just sit ard and see how all this cooks up.

SHORT AUDJPY @ 100.12, Stop @ 100.52, guranteed -40pips

Majors are trending strongly this week. If Japanese PM is not in position yet, U/J might be indecisive. Happy trading friend.

Hey Barak...

looks like it.

Attached EU. 1hr indicates first substantial close above the 1.41 region. EU looks like it has just been given more steriods...I'll be watching the current PA at the spike level. Not a keen buyer at these levels.

Are we looking at a possible reversal/corrective formation? Attached Dollar Index, located an inside bar formed up...

I think this is as easy at it gets. I'm expecting to see this in a string of journals...

SHORT GBPUSD @ 2.0205

I'm not trying to play against the trend but as we look further into the Index, the weekly and the daily is suggesting that we are likely to see a bottoming formation in the near term.

The momentum in weekly Macd is showing signs of weakening, RSI 14 at mark 30 proved to be a strong support zone for the index.

On the daily, the candles showed signs of weak downward movements, as if its not willing to move down anymore, well it could be consolidating, we'll just have to see from here. Technical indicators like the MACD and RSI are already showing diverging signals.

Why is it safer to go long on the dollar now? One, you can set close stops. I personally believe so because the dollar has never been so attractive, and no other dollar pair, other than the Euro has managed to cap a new high against dollar even as dollar keeps making a new low...esp the GBP, its proving to be very very vulnerable as of late. I have made a note to myself to keep the GBP shorts on dollar rallys until the credit fears in Britain eases.

Good consideration.

Update : Closed @ 98.75 for 137pips

SEP
Realised Loss : -0pips
Realised gains: +651pips

YTD
Realised Loss : -295pips
Realised gains: +656pips

Update GBPUSD Stopped @ 2.0152 for 53pips

SEP
Realised Loss : -0pips
Realised gains: +704pips

YTD
Realised Loss : -295pips
Realised gains: +709pips

I took a look at the COT Data....

Am i being hopeful here...LOL. I'm really looking to buy dollar here...no kidding.

So i bought dollar...lol

Really, this is just a scalp.
I told myself not to do it, the plan was to buy the dips, but damn that 1hr bar is such a bi*t*h...the minute did a double top...i waited and waited, saw an engulfing...bah! SHORT!:

so im in SHORT @ 2.0448 SL @ 2.0490, guranteed -52

oh and thats the cable

Happy Children's Day.

Closed @ 2.0433 for +15 pips

OCT
Realised Loss : -0pips
Realised gains: +15pips

YTD
Realised Loss : -295pips
Realised gains: +724pips

Looking at he PA, i'm starting to have more doubts on the upside potential of GBPUSD. Tested some small shorts to get a feel.

I'm not journalling this as a trade, anyway different account, lets see where it goes from here.

Lets take a look at my trade.

Trade : Short GBPUSD @ 2.0448, Covered @ 2.0433, +15
Timeframe used to take Trade : 1hr Bars
Signal : Bearish Engulfing

Review -
Well that trade was quite cleanly taken i must say, the price action did not give much hindrace and price kept following through all the way. So how did i end up with only 15pips?

My Errors :
I did not take a potential profit of 60 pips when price reached 2.0388 instead i let the price run and let it hit my stop way back at 2.0433. Whats more amazing was i knew price had reached the bottom but i just decided to let it run, (act cool) and instead i moved my stops down to 2.0433, lesson learnt.

What I could have done :
I came up with a few possibilities.

1. Take partial profit, esp when i knew price has reached a Support Zone, move the stops to BE. (it would not have hitted the SL anyway and i should be seeing myself in this trade if not for my lack of good judgement to take profit, damn!)
2. Further add to my position when i spotted the weakness of GU. (I marked an area called DT1 in the picture, stands for Dummy trade 1, thats the zone which i took a dummy short.)
3. Get out of the trade totally when price hit the support zone at 2.0380, which happens to be the bottom of the bollinger abnds anyway.

Journaled....

Short @ 1.4178, stopped out at 1.4192, -14pips

OCT
Realised Loss : -14pips
Realised gains: +15pips

YTD
Realised Loss : -309pips
Realised gains: +724pips

Lets see what went wrong here. By lookinng at the charts and where i placed my stops, it was pretty clear what was really wrong. I din have much complains abt the entries but look at that stop i placed, it had a newbie ring to it. Man i really screwed this trade. An eventual lose trade, although its a small 14pips, its my inabilty to discern proper areas for stops that really killed the trade.

My Errors:
I did not give eenough space for the trade to workout. The stops are impossibly near. I was too confident that i have snapped the top. I din expect price to chase after 1.4200 before tilting away. I forget that the big round numbers are a likely zone for stop hunters, man what was i thinking when i placed a stop at 1.4191? I knew that if it broke 90, it'll go its way at test 1.4200. Another lesson learnt.

What I could've done,

1. Give the trade some space.
2. Be more practical with my stops.

Journaled...

Long GBPUSD @ 2.0363 Stopped @ 2.0340, -23pips

OCT
Realised Loss : -37pips
Realised gains: +15pips

YTD
Realised Loss : -332pips
Realised gains: +724pips

This trade is a good one....i wanted to make sure i did not let the NFP catch me off guard...even thoug the price rallied back, im very happy with the trade.

OCT Trade 5
Short GBPUSD @ 2.0413, covered @ 2.0400, +15

OCT Trade 6
Long EURUSD @ 1.4150

OCT Trade 7
Long GBPUSD @ 2.0420

OCT
Realised Loss : -37pips
Realised gains: +30pips

YTD
Realised Loss : -332pips
Realised gains: +739pips

OCT
Realised Loss : -161pips
Realised gains: +30pips

YTD
Realised Loss : -456pips
Realised gains: +739pips