Part Time Wealth Building Trading System - Weekly Scalping | Page 68 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

1M & 5M Scalping System (Scalping Paradise) 21 replies

A switch: from part time trading to full time trading 8 replies

A system that works for a part time trader with minimum screen time 16 replies

Dear Full time/Part time Traders – Thanks for your time and help 7 replies

Part Time Wealth Building System - "High-Low Trending" 9 replies

Attachments: Part Time Wealth Building Trading System - Weekly Scalping
Exit Attachments

Part Time Wealth Building Trading System - Weekly Scalping

  • #1,341
  • Aug 14, 2007 8:42pm Aug 14, 2007 8:42pm
I agree about the GBP... but have a look at GBP/JPY.. thats where the money is for this system this week

+350

Note: Entry Based on trade @ Last weeks close(239.51) -50 (239.01)
Note2: Due to my rules, i had -150 pips SL (SL hit 3 times)
  • #1,342
  • Aug 16, 2007 2:33pm Aug 16, 2007 2:33pm
Quoting TheRealThing

There was a stretch of 8 losers in 11 trades starting in May and a few weeks before the end of last year there was a stretch of 6 straight consecutive losers. Any who started since last year had some pain. The forty trades since the beginning of 2007 have averaged only $58 dollars a trade or 5.8 pips after spread. Not too appealing...,

In no way am I denigrating this method....

I trade a favorite version of it myself, and have suffered some like everyone else. I expect we will see a "reversion-to-mean" effect as the trades should tend to get more profitable to balance out the losers.

Good trading!

TheRealThing

I also took the short trade this week in GBP/USD, selling it in the 2.0185 area.

As I write this, the trade is up 367 pips.

Most individuals who have only watched, and/or traded the Forex for a couple of years have a difficult time sitting with a 150 pip profit much less a 250+ pip profit. And they don't like taking anything near 60 pip losses.

Hence, that is why this systemology works! And also why most people don't trade it and make the money it has consistently liberated from the market.

To make money trading, you have to "let the market reward you the way will it reward traders", and that is--- with big profits very rarely, but with contained losses most of the time.

As most of you know, that is exactly the opposite concept of what most forex traders use in trying to extract money from the market.

A few weeks ago I posted the results since the beginning of the year and observed that this system of weekly trading was underperforming and would likely attempt to "catch up".

It is nice to see it do it in just a few weeks-- when you are in!!!!

The forty-four trades since the beginning of 2007 have now averaged $271 dollars a trade or 27.1 pips after spread. That is up substantially in the past few weeks.

See Attachments Below:

  1. Equity curve A is the Weekly Method for the last 44 trades.
  2. Equity curve B is trading one full GBP/USD unit from 2/15/97 through 8/16/07


Best wishes on your trading.

TheRealThing

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Weekly Method -2.jpg Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Weekly Method ...jpg Size: 23 KB
  • #1,343
  • Aug 17, 2007 7:43am Aug 17, 2007 7:43am
I agree. Also money managmanet and discipline play a huge role. The week is over and with good profit. Would see how we do next week.

Best Regards,

Quoting TheRealThing
I also took the short trade this week in GBP/USD, selling it in the 2.0185 area.

As I write this, the trade is up 367 pips.

Most individuals who have only watched, and/or traded the Forex for a couple of years have a difficult time sitting with a 150 pip profit much less a 250+ pip profit. And they don't like taking anything near 60 pip losses.

Hence, that is why this systemology works! And also why most people don't trade it and make the money it has consistently liberated from the market.

To make money trading, you have to "let the market reward you the way will it reward traders", and that is--- with big profits very rarely, but with contained losses most of the time.

As most of you know, that is exactly the opposite concept of what most forex traders use in trying to extract money from the market.

A few weeks ago I posted the results since the beginning of the year and observed that this system of weekly trading was underperforming and would likely attempt to "catch up".

It is nice to see it do it in just a few weeks-- when you are in!!!!

The forty-four trades since the beginning of 2007 have now averaged $271 dollars a trade or 27.1 pips after spread. That is up substantially in the past few weeks.

See Attachments Below:

  1. Equity curve A is the Weekly Method for the last 44 trades.
  2. Equity curve B is trading one full GBP/USD unit from 2/15/97 through 8/16/07

Best wishes on your trading.

TheRealThing

  • #1,344
  • Aug 17, 2007 9:03am Aug 17, 2007 9:03am
Quoting TheRealThing
I also took the short trade this week in GBP/USD, selling it in the 2.0185 area.

As I write this, the trade is up 367 pips.

Most individuals who have only watched, and/or traded the Forex for a couple of years have a difficult time sitting with a 150 pip profit much less a 250+ pip profit. And they don't like taking anything near 60 pip losses.

Hence, that is why this systemology works! And also why most people don't trade it and make the money it has consistently liberated from the market.

To make money trading, you have to "let the market reward you the way will it reward traders", and that is--- with big profits very rarely, but with contained losses most of the time.

As most of you know, that is exactly the opposite concept of what most forex traders use in trying to extract money from the market.

A few weeks ago I posted the results since the beginning of the year and observed that this system of weekly trading was underperforming and would likely attempt to "catch up".

It is nice to see it do it in just a few weeks-- when you are in!!!!

The forty-four trades since the beginning of 2007 have now averaged $271 dollars a trade or 27.1 pips after spread. That is up substantially in the past few weeks.

See Attachments Below:

  1. Equity curve A is the Weekly Method for the last 44 trades.
  2. Equity curve B is trading one full GBP/USD unit from 2/15/97 through 8/16/07

Best wishes on your trading.

TheRealThing

anyone has the updated summary of the method??
  • #1,345
  • Sep 16, 2007 9:17pm Sep 16, 2007 9:17pm
Hi Tk

I read at some point that this weekly system has changed a bit, Even if it hasn't changed much can I still trade it now that it's Sept 16, 10:12 EST

Thanks a lot for the sharing your system.

Neyi
  • #1,346
  • Sep 17, 2007 8:31pm Sep 17, 2007 8:31pm
ive started demoing this system on Cable, Guppy and GBP/CHF. using a 50 pip straddle but my variation is a 50 pip fixed SL for now.

trades triggered yesterday, Guppy buy stop got triggered first but exited at a loss. Didnt have time to move the sell stop up but got trighgered at the original price. Very easy, very simple. Key is to maximise the gains in trending to withstand the whipsawing whne markets dont trend.
  • #1,347
  • Sep 18, 2007 4:36pm Sep 18, 2007 4:36pm
It is always frustrating to have a loss trade right off the bat. But trading is a lot like poker in that the ones who can deal with the variation best tend to be at the winning table.

A few years ago, a professional option trader with whom I am aquainted-- David Caplan, purchased the rights to a "thinking man's" poker book titled, Poker, Sex & Dying.

He has re-titled it Trading, Sex and Dying, and it's been available for a few years from trading book sellers. The idea behind the book and the new owner's intent is that the business of trading almost always comes down to the internal fortitude of the player (or trader as the case may be) who applies the money or assets to the game at hand.

Game theory is all the rage, and has been for the last decade.

Hedge funds, private funds and mutual funds are all aware of the phenomena - even if they often get victimized by them - of game strategies being played out in the marketplace. I have found it crucial to the trading learning process that one understands "where" or "who" your profits are coming from when you show consistent profits from a trading system.

Ask, "who is it that is willing to consistently lose to me at these trading points, making it possible for me to win so consistently; and why?"

If you can't come up with a good answer pretty quickly, you might not have a durable method that you can expect to last.

The book mentioned above can be helpful to identify previously invisible edges in the market. There are a lot of personalities trading out there with a lot of money and here are some of the ones covered each with a chapter devoted to them:

 

  1. The Adventurer
  2. The Aggressive
  3. The Co-dependent
  4. The Eccentric
  5. The Emotional
  6. The I-Dominant
  7. The Loner
  8. The Masochist
  9. The Reflective
  10. The Theatrical
  11. The Underachiever
  12. The Vigilant
  13. The Worker Moralist


I personally like trading against the "Emotional" and before the "Aggressive". One of the best things is, the book is available very reasonably second-hand.

Have a great week! (my week got better after the interest rate cut- )

TheRealThing

PS: If you happen to read the reviews of the book on Amazon, which are some of the worst I've seen about any book-- you'd think the book totalled their cars..., take them with a huge grain of salt. I am not surprised they didn't "get it". The book is perfectly applicable to real traders who are serious about their business and have found the need to tighten up their mental game. And if you like to play poker..., BONUS!

  • #1,348
  • Sep 20, 2007 11:47am Sep 20, 2007 11:47am
I have decided to go back to basics and try and minimise/avoid as many indicators as possible. this is why i really like the idea behind this system - simplicity. i don't really have the time, nor particularly want to stare at charts.

This week I tried my own variation on Cable, Guppy, and GBP/CHF. I set a fixed stop loss for each trade and entries were initially set at 50 pips away from last week's close. My main variation was to use a stop and reverse, so that the stop for one entry is actually the trigger of an entry in the opposite direction, always maintaining a 50 pip stop loss.

So far, both Cable and Guppy sells triggered, stopped out, reversed, then got stopped out again. Not very nice as there were some good initial profits on the shorts.

GBP/CHF has been the star - sell triggered and the trend has remained mostlydown all week (Tue it retraced to b/e before resuming downtrend). so far up about 250pips.

Not much considering the losses from the other pairs. I feel that 3 pairs are 2 much and next week will concentrate on 2.

The million dollar question is which pairs will make the big smooth weekly move without any chop?

Any help or pointers with this would be appreciated! I'm leaning right now to looking at a whole bunch of charts before the start of the week and spending no more than 30 mins analyzing the weekly price action in an attempt to come up with the best 2 looking pairs to trade (something I probably should be doing regardless.)

cheers to TK for introducing his methods!
  • #1,349
  • Edited 9:21pm Sep 22, 2007 9:07pm | Edited 9:21pm
I think your missing the picture why this works. Its based on simplicity. If you look at weekly bars you will see more often then not a body plus top and bottom wicks. In most weeks the opening sunday night going into monday morning euroland session open time is your wick. This is often the false break. So you set your breakout window here at this time. Why? Becuase i just explained most weeks have a false initial move and we can use that to our advantage. If you get the open price for the week and wait for the false break is there is high odds for the price to reverse for the rest of the week to make a body!

Is it perfect? nope? IMO you can not use trailing stops nor any dials. When options are priced they are priced that there is an equal chance of the price going up or down or maybe no where given sufficient time. Its a binomial distrbution and the distance most probably travelled in one week is a function of time and volatilty. This is Black Sholes stuff and its very accurate if you know the volatility.

So every pair has different volatiltly so we know that right now the price is 1.4090 euro. Now you tell me where we are going next week with any certainy? You cant but i can tell you that there is a 10% chance of striking either 1.3900 or 1.4300 then there is a 40% chance of striking 1.4000 or 1.4200 etc based on the increasing volatilty of the last few weeks.

What we are trying to do in these system is catch the break before the body of the weekly candle develops thats all. Think about it, the big juicy weekly candles started from a price a great distance away from the open price otherwise they wouldnt make big candles would they? This means the price has advanced in that direction. So we can assume that logically big candles mean in most weeks more often then not the price kept on going despite thousands trying to contra it. The only justifable contra is the open price then on to make the wick. The wick takes many hours sometimes a day or two to form before snapping back to make the body. Somtimes sits there ALL week doing nothing on NFP weeks then moves 130 pips on friday.

To trade it then makes sense to WAIT for sometime after the open sunday price before setting the traps. The traps should be two way becuase there are some rare weeks which gap up without a wick just a body and a trap will catch these too.

You should not attempt more then 2 traps a week. If you get stopped out chances are the week is going to be bad for you anyway. On the flip side once you are in profit do NOTHING till friday when the bell goes. Dont move stops no tp's just sit and do something else instead hoping the week will be a big candle. No one knows for sure but if you are in profit and not stopped out you have a limited risk trade with open profit potential.

Of course there are other ways to trade rather then stops including options. You can wait till monday and buy puts and calls for a straddle then it matter not which way the market moves you will make money IF it moves enough to cover the cost of the options including paying for the worthless open. But options have a fantastic safety net compared to stops and that is you can never be stopped out. The price can go against you 150 pips on tuesday only to find by firday its up 300 pips and your well in the money. In this respect you dont even have to think or worry about where you are going to place your stops.

So by thinking about the bionominal range between sunday open and monday morning the black scholes is sensitive enough in 24 hours as one week. In this respect i use the 10% strike price 8 hours after the open lets say this week goes up to 1.4115 by 8 am monday london time. This may well be the wick now and the body will go down till firday. I now set my trap based on the next 24 hours black scholes range so i have 1.4132 for 10% strike up and 1.4087 for 10% strike down. This will be my first trap for the week. I will set IF THEN trade and set stops opposite prices. If everything goes well and with the odds that the break over 141 was only the canlde wick then the profit will start at 1.4087 my entry price and end wherever it wants to by friday maybe 13900 at the 10% price for the week which is a very realistic price level the same as a long entry to 14300.

Edit to say dont trade this i dont know the real option pricing till next week so take pricing here as a pure fictional guide only.
  • #1,350
  • Sep 23, 2007 2:33am Sep 23, 2007 2:33am
Quoting johnedoe
haney mohssen....
The rules have changed very little.

elmiligi
Go back to the start of the thread and READ.....
Also quit shouting

very sorry for making this post and in fact i'm actually whispering right now..........

this thread is way too long honestly so i'm hoping someone is kind enough to explain the updated method again.....?

i was trying out a similar method but on the daily range but too much choppy action.

so let's say i made a buy on Monday based on last week's high and then i closed out for profit on Tuesday so do i make a 2nd buy based on last week's high again or based on this Tuesday's high ?

sincerely hope someone can give a run-down on the updated method.......

many thanks.....
  • #1,351
  • Sep 24, 2007 10:16am Sep 24, 2007 10:16am
Quoting findcount
very sorry for making this post and in fact i'm actually whispering right now..........

this thread is way too long honestly so i'm hoping someone is kind enough to explain the updated method again.....?

i was trying out a similar method but on the daily range but too much choppy action.

so let's say i made a buy on Monday based on last week's high and then i closed out for profit on Tuesday so do i make a 2nd buy based on last week's high again or based on this Tuesday's high ?

sincerely hope someone can give a run-down on the updated method.......

many thanks.....
It does not vary much from this:

Look for last week close price for the pair you are trading, let's say GBP/GPY, which was 232.81.

Then you add/substract a straddle value, say 50 pips. That is the value people started for that pair.

So on week's opening you put a buystop at 232.81 + 50pips = 233.31 and a sellstop at 232.81 - 50 pips = 232.31.

Either of these triggers are hit, you move your other pending operation to previous week's close: say the buystop was hit at 233.31. Then you move your sellstop to 232.81. You might also move the stop of the first operation to the start of the other: you put your stop of that buy at 232.31. Voila, you got a SAR (Stop And Reverse) order...

That is pretty much it. You fix those two points and go for the rest of the week. In this example you are trading BUYs in 233.31 ans SELLs in 232.81 until the end of the week. Also you may not close profiting orders until friday.

Of course everyone here added their own variations on the method like trailing stops, maxtrades, bigger/smaller straddles, diferent opening/closing prices... in summary, TK left it opened for us to change it...

Good luck
  • #1,352
  • Sep 25, 2007 11:05am Sep 25, 2007 11:05am
Well, using this method this week, with no fancy altering of the basic rules, I got stopped out on Cable twice today!! Bleh! Nasty up and down, up and down. This represents a 60 pip loss.

However, I also made the same trade on GBP/JPY and am up 136 pips. I was up as much as 211 pips at the start of the day. Looking forward to Friday...

I generally don't trade on Sunday, so for me I'm opening the trade around 8:30 am on Monday, but still using the previous week's close as the starting point.

The power of this system is its simplicity. Easy entry, easy exit, no thinking. If you can afford to risk 30 pips to make 200-300, then why not? But the pound has pounded me this week - next week should be better!
Disregard all prognostications.
  • #1,353
  • Sep 26, 2007 8:37am Sep 26, 2007 8:37am
i gone through the results for the past 1 year on gbp/usd and gbp/jpy and results are very impressive.......

only problem is the SL and trailstop management, so what can we do to minimize losses rather than maximize gains ?
  • #1,354
  • Sep 26, 2007 12:57pm Sep 26, 2007 12:57pm
As of today I am stopped out on Gbp/Jpy as well.... I can see that it is consolidating and will have a breakout soon. At this point, I am limiting the system to only 2 trades per week, the initial trade and the trade in the opposite direction. But losing another 60 pips is no fun!

It would seem that we need to look for pairs that are trending, and not ones that are moving sideways during the week. But all pairs do this occasionally. But I seem to have picked two pairs this week that made Dojis.
Disregard all prognostications.
  • #1,355
  • Sep 26, 2007 9:37pm Sep 26, 2007 9:37pm
Quoting Pidgeon
As of today I am stopped out on Gbp/Jpy as well.... I can see that it is consolidating and will have a breakout soon. At this point, I am limiting the system to only 2 trades per week, the initial trade and the trade in the opposite direction. But losing another 60 pips is no fun!

It would seem that we need to look for pairs that are trending, and not ones that are moving sideways during the week. But all pairs do this occasionally. But I seem to have picked two pairs this week that made Dojis.

hi Pidgeon, stopped out on Geppy too. I'm demoing this weekly system along with some daily systems as well. Looking at 5 currency pairs. Of these, only 3 are left running, and this is after initially being stopped out on the first trade: EUR/AUD, GBP/CHF, Cable. Perhaps increase the chances by looking at strongly trending weekly charts and poossible weekly pin bars.
  • #1,356
  • Sep 26, 2007 10:37pm Sep 26, 2007 10:37pm
First post for me. I've been lurking for a short while and I'm now starting to forward test this system.

I set my orders at this weeks open (about 3:00pm MST sunday) for Cable

BUY at 2.0251 and SELL at 2.0151

My order triggered on BUY and I adjusted my SELL to 2.0201

I stopped out at 2.0221 and then my SELL order was triggered. SET new buy at 2.0251

I'm currently riding my SELL at 2.0201. UP 30 pips after being stopped out once so far

I'm loving the simplicity of this system and I'll probably do further analyzing after a while to see if any adjustments can be made... to fit my style and/or schedule if need be. Thanks tkimble!
  • #1,357
  • Sep 26, 2007 10:51pm Sep 26, 2007 10:51pm
And regarding when to cut your losses for the week on any given trade (i.e. how many stop losses should one endure), evaluating the time and day during that week might be something to consider. Rather than saying "I'm closing the trade after two stops" it might make a difference when taking into account how far into the trading week I am. If I stopped out during the first day (e.g. BUY) but have been riding the SELL order until late thursday where I finally stopped out again, it might make sense to hope for that second BUY in case a late rally has been forming, which could be a reason for being stopped out so late on the SELL. After almost three days of riding the one order (and only being stopped out once prior), I'm not about to give up yet at this point in the week. Of course this is just one scenario.

But this could just be common sense for most of you. I've just noticed a lot of people speaking of two stops as a magical number for closing the week long trade. Now two stops in the first day could definitely be a sign of a choppy week to come.
  • #1,358
  • Sep 27, 2007 9:50am Sep 27, 2007 9:50am
And just like that I'm stopped out two more times in a matter of minutes, lol. I might have to do some adjusts earlier than I thought considering I was up about 100 pips at one point. I understand the concept of riding the trade out to the end of the week to keep things consistent and leave out all emotions, but waiting 3 days just to see a 90 pip loss instead kind of burns. It looks like some profit taking might be in order and then I can hopefully ride a free trade for the rest of the week. Is that what you guys have been doing?
  • #1,359
  • Edited 11:12am Sep 27, 2007 11:06am | Edited 11:12am
Wazz,
The point of this system is not to overtrade. That's what it overcomes.
If you get stopped out, you get stopped out. Its not designed to give multiple new entries during the week, everything is based on the close of the prior week. Now, if you got stopped out twice, but the price is still around the close of the prior week, you could feasibly put back the original order and start again. But really, you're just trying to force profit out of an oscillating week.

The point of the system is to make a profit during those weeks which trend in one direction ( for many hundreds of pips ) while keeping losses small during those weeks when markets are ranging. This is why I'm limiting my trades this week and starting fresh next Monday.

Oh, one more thing....if you cant stand to see it go up by 200 pips, and then end with a 30 pip loss, then this is not the system for you. TKimble mentions this early on (Post #19). The idea is to let whatever happens during the week happen, and not get stopped out on any retracements. Its bold that way!
Disregard all prognostications.
  • #1,360
  • Sep 27, 2007 11:44am Sep 27, 2007 11:44am
Quoting Pidgeon
Wazz,
The point of this system is not to overtrade. That's what it overcomes.
If you get stopped out, you get stopped out. Its not designed to give multiple new entries during the week, everything is based on the close of the prior week. Now, if you got stopped out twice, but the price is still around the close of the prior week, you could feasibly put back the original order and start again. But really, you're just trying to force profit out of an oscillating week.

The point of the system is to make a profit during those weeks which trend in one direction ( for many hundreds of pips ) while keeping losses small during those weeks when markets are ranging. This is why I'm limiting my trades this week and starting fresh next Monday.

Oh, one more thing....if you cant stand to see it go up by 200 pips, and then end with a 30 pip loss, then this is not the system for you. TKimble mentions this early on (Post #19). The idea is to let whatever happens during the week happen, and not get stopped out on any retracements. Its bold that way!
I actually agree with everything you say here. I'm just talking about trying to capitalize on a week like this. I know it looks like I'm trying to the force the trade (I likely am), but I'm just trying to figure out a way to come out ahead even on these choppy/sideways kind of weeks. I know... that's pretty arrogant of me and I should probabaly just leave it alone. We can't come out ahead every week. This week just happend to be a lousy one to start out with this system. No big deal. I still completely agree with the system; it makes much sense! But then again, finding profit earlier in the week is hindsight in most cases. The biggest pyschological element to overcome with this type of trade is that a trader knows it's a week long trade from day 1 and he/she has to wait it out no matter what - knowing all of this beforehand. Captain obvious strikes again! lol
0 traders viewing now