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  • #421
  • Sep 21, 2007 4:11am Sep 21, 2007 4:11am
Hi, Walt, How can you yield 4 winning trades out of every 5 trades or better, given a pattern with 60%-67% probability? I think it should be 3 winning trades out of 5. Thanks!


[/quote] I've observed that about 60% - 67% of the daily candles have trended in accordance with the prior day close. In other words, if the prior day's candle closed higher than its opening, then the next day's candle will have a 60% - 67% probability for also closing higher than its opening, which was the closing price of the prior day.

Simply taking advantage of this pattern can easily yield four wining trades out of every five trades, or better. Based on standard lot sizes, that's a profit of about $800 - $1,000 for every 5 trades - per day or per week.

I have been testing the following currency pairs: GBPJPY, USDJPY, EURJPY, USDCHF, & GBPUSD.

Please let me know if your backtesting or forward testing supports this assertion...


Thanks,
Walt[/quote]
  • #422
  • Edited 2:20am Sep 22, 2007 2:08am | Edited 2:20am
Daily95pips:

Date: Monday 17 September 2007
GBPUSD +95
GBPJPY +95
USDJPY no touch
EURJPY no touch
EURUSD no touch

Total: +190pips

Comment: A continuation of downtrend on GBPUSD and GBPJPY. Although USDJPY and EURJPY went in the same direction, they didn't break the previous days low. EURUSD didn't move much at all.

Date: Tuesday 18 September 2007
GBPUSD +15
GBPJPY +95
USDJPY +95
EURJPY +15
EURUSD +15

Total: +235pips

Comment: I've started adjusting the stoploss on the 2 remaining positions to breakeven after the first profit target has been reached. Also, once the long or short orders are triggered I will manually cancel the opposite orders ie. if the long orders are triggered I will cancel the short orders of the same pair and visa versa.

Date: Wednesday 19 September 2007
GBPUSD +15
GBPJPY nt
USDJPY nt
EURJPY nt
EURUSD nt

Total: +15pips

Comment: Moving the stops up to breakeven locked in +15pips for cable. It was more of a ranging day as none of the other pairs triggered.

Date: Thursday 20 September 2007
GBPUSD nt
GBPJPY +45
USDJPY +95
EURJPY +95
EURUSD +95

Total: +330pips

Comment: The 3rd PT on GBPJPY was not quite reached. GBPUSD didn't move much. The other pairs speak for themselves.

Date: Friday 21 September 2007
GBPUSD +95
GBPJPY +95
USDJPY nt
EURJPY +75
EURUSD +15

Total: +280pips

Comment: Another good day.

Total for week ending Friday 21 September 2007: +1050pips
Total for week ending Friday 14 September 2007: -651pips
Total for week ending Friday 7 September 2007: +164pips
Total for week ending Friday 31 August 2007: +585pips

Grand total: +1148pips




bksujal:

Date: Monday 17 September 2007
GBPUSD -60
GBPJPY -60
EURJPY +40

Total: -80pips

Comment: Have adjusted SL to 60pips while keeping TP at 40pips.

Date: Tuesday 18 September 2007
GBPUSD +40
GBPJPY -60
EURJPY +40

Total: +20pips

Comment: A set 60SL for GBPJPY may still not be enough to cover it's volatility. It stands to reason that if a larger stop is used a higher profit target is also justified. The 60SL for GBPUSD and EURJPY seems to be ok so far, though a higher profit target may also be feasible.

Date: Wednesday 19 September 2007
GBPUSD +50
GBPJPY +80
EURJPY +50

Total: +180pips

Comment: A classic ranging day. Now using 80TP, 100SL on GBPJPY and will change to 60TP, 60SL for GBPUSD and EURJPY.

Date: Thursday 20 September
GBPUSD nt
GBPJPY +80
EURJPY +92

Total: +172pips

Comment: Both short and long orders were triggered on EURJPY. Because the range was relatively tight, the profit target of the short trade was close to the entry for the long. I manually closed out the long trade for +32pips. Will consider 1:1 risk/reward on GBPJPY as suggested by sameer666.

Date: Friday 21 September
GBPUSD -60
GBPJPY -100
EURJPY -60

Total: -220pips

Comment: As it was a trending day above and beyond the previous days high for the above pairs, the ranging strategy was not suitable.

Total for week ending Friday 21 September 2007: +72pips
Total for week ending Friday 14 September 2007: -179pips

Grand Total: -107pips
  • #423
  • Sep 22, 2007 2:28am Sep 22, 2007 2:28am
Daily95pips individual pair results for week ending Friday 21 September 2007:

GBPUSD +220
GBPJPY +330
USDJPY +190
EURJPY +185
EURUSD +125

Total: +1050pips

For the past 4 weeks:

GBPUSD -60
GBPJPY -30
USDJPY +211
EURJPY +610
EURUSD +332

Total: +1063pips

Comment: EURJPY is still proving the best performer. More consistent results are expected due to actively adjusting stops as trades progress.
  • #424
  • Sep 22, 2007 2:34am Sep 22, 2007 2:34am
Hmmm...the totals seem to be different....I don't know where I went wrong with the additions, however I'm sure you get the idea.
  • #425
  • Sep 22, 2007 4:34am Sep 22, 2007 4:34am

been backtestng this system...i think this system realy works on GJ because of the large swing...95 sure pips everyday is really much for me...gonna trade this system live next weekonly on GJ...

"Analysis Is Hard But Trade Is Easy"
  • #426
  • Sep 22, 2007 1:39pm Sep 22, 2007 1:39pm
Quoting bullrock
I have such a thread. Check it. But I need to consider the views of jones 247.

Regards Bullrock
Hi Bullrock
your thread is about daytrading, and adjusting s/l ; we are looking here for a put and forget strategy.
The question is if putting a 20 pips t/p and 20 s/l at the close is statisticly a good strategy, or maybe only putting it after 2 consecutive days of high or low?
your input would be a big help,
regards,
Vanupips
  • #427
  • Edited 9:20pm Sep 22, 2007 3:47pm | Edited 9:20pm
Hello,

I've been following this thread with great interest from the beginning, and have even traded live with both systems, unfortunately to my loss. So, today, I spent a great deal of time trying to refine much of the information and ideas already presented here into a system that might work a little better, and with less complication.

It's a bit more conservative, and I've only tested it back for the last three weeks on GBP/USD to the beginning of September, but I'll present it anyway, in the hope that it might spark some greater intelligence, a few enhancements, and possibly increase our collective net worth. If anyone wants to back-test further, or wishes to comment constructively, please feel free to do so. Here are the rules:

SET UP:

1. One day ends while another begins at 2400 GMT. We trade each day at the closing price of the previous day, as recorded at 2400 GMT. **See time reference after rules.

2. We trade Monday at Friday's closing price. Ignore all weekend price action and ignore Monday morning gaps.

3. Determine the trend of the previous day, i.e., if the previous day closed higher than it opened, the trend was UP.

4. Determine range (by subtracting daily low from daily high) for previous day.

ENTRY:

1. Enter an order after the close of the 2300 GMT candle, at the closing price. This is the price at 2400 (midnight) GMT. A simple market order should work fine.

2. Enter with the trend. In other words, we buy long if the trend for the previous day was up, short if the trend was down. Only one trade for the evening.

3. Set TP=40, SL=40. For now, there are no secondary targets, as I want to keep things as simple as possible, to see if our entries work well enough to continue further discussion. For the record, in my tests many pips were left on the table after our initial target was hit.

FILTERS - DO NOT IGNORE:

1. If previous day's range was less than 100, DO NOT TRADE!

2. If the previous day's open and close were within 5 or 6 pips of each other, use the trend from the day before.

END OF RULES
----------------

Results for last three weeks:

9/3-9/7: +160 pips
9/10-9/14: + 80
9/17-9/21: + 80
-----------
Total +320 pips


**Time reference: 2400 GMT is the same as 8 PM (2000 hrs) EDT. When the U.S. returns to EST, this will become 7 PM (1900 hrs) EST. GMT does not change.

Disclaimer: I am only a novice trader, and could be way off here, so please exercise your own judgment before entering any trade based on this, or anyone else's system.

EDIT: I just tried this on EURJPY for the same period and it failed terribly.

Good luck to all!
Jeff Singer, K2KV
  • #428
  • Sep 23, 2007 4:47am Sep 23, 2007 4:47am
Quoting k2kv
Hello,

I've been following this thread with great interest from the beginning, and have even traded live with both systems, unfortunately to my loss. So, today, I spent a great deal of time trying to refine much of the information and ideas already presented here into a system that might work a little better, and with less complication.

It's a bit more conservative, and I've only tested it back for the last three weeks on GBP/USD to the beginning of September, but I'll present it anyway, in the hope that it might spark some greater intelligence, a few enhancements, and possibly increase our collective net worth. If anyone wants to back-test further, or wishes to comment constructively, please feel free to do so. Here are the rules:

SET UP:

1. One day ends while another begins at 2400 GMT. We trade each day at the closing price of the previous day, as recorded at 2400 GMT. **See time reference after rules.

2. We trade Monday at Friday's closing price. Ignore all weekend price action and ignore Monday morning gaps.

3. Determine the trend of the previous day, i.e., if the previous day closed higher than it opened, the trend was UP.

4. Determine range (by subtracting daily low from daily high) for previous day.

ENTRY:

1. Enter an order after the close of the 2300 GMT candle, at the closing price. This is the price at 2400 (midnight) GMT. A simple market order should work fine.

2. Enter with the trend. In other words, we buy long if the trend for the previous day was up, short if the trend was down. Only one trade for the evening.

3. Set TP=40, SL=40. For now, there are no secondary targets, as I want to keep things as simple as possible, to see if our entries work well enough to continue further discussion. For the record, in my tests many pips were left on the table after our initial target was hit.

FILTERS - DO NOT IGNORE:

1. If previous day's range was less than 100, DO NOT TRADE!

2. If the previous day's open and close were within 5 or 6 pips of each other, use the trend from the day before.

END OF RULES
----------------

Results for last three weeks:

9/3-9/7: +160 pips
9/10-9/14: + 80
9/17-9/21: + 80
-----------
Total +320 pips


**Time reference: 2400 GMT is the same as 8 PM (2000 hrs) EDT. When the U.S. returns to EST, this will become 7 PM (1900 hrs) EST. GMT does not change.

Disclaimer: I am only a novice trader, and could be way off here, so please exercise your own judgment before entering any trade based on this, or anyone else's system.

EDIT: I just tried this on EURJPY for the same period and it failed terribly.

Good luck to all!
Hi,
I suggested this method in post 395, (with 20 T/p and s/L,and without your filters), and I hope Bullrock will help with some more extensive backtesting.
Your filters make sens but do they really made a difference in your trading?
If you can check the results with 20 pips instead of 40 , it would be nice.
maybe the eur/jpy would be profitable.
Regards,
Vanupips
  • #429
  • Sep 23, 2007 5:07am Sep 23, 2007 5:07am
Quoting vanupips
Hi Bullrock
your thread is about daytrading, and adjusting s/l ; we are looking here for a put and forget strategy.
The question is if putting a 20 pips t/p and 20 s/l at the close is statisticly a good strategy, or maybe only putting it after 2 consecutive days of high or low?
your input would be a big help,
regards,
Vanupips
I am going to do some excel based analysis later on next week.. I am real busy now unfortunately. But will do, will do.
.
  • #430
  • Sep 23, 2007 5:11am Sep 23, 2007 5:11am
Quoting mikelath
Daily95pips:

Date: Monday 17 September 2007
GBPUSD +95
GBPJPY +95
USDJPY no touch
EURJPY no touch
EURUSD no touch

Total: +190pips

Comment: A continuation of downtrend on GBPUSD and GBPJPY. Although USDJPY and EURJPY went in the same direction, they didn't break the previous days low. EURUSD didn't move much at all.

Date: Tuesday 18 September 2007
GBPUSD +15
GBPJPY +95
USDJPY +95
EURJPY +15
EURUSD +15

Total: +235pips

Comment: I've started adjusting the stoploss on the 2 remaining positions to breakeven after the first profit target has been reached. Also, once the long or short orders are triggered I will manually cancel the opposite orders ie. if the long orders are triggered I will cancel the short orders of the same pair and visa versa.

Date: Wednesday 19 September 2007
GBPUSD +15
GBPJPY nt
USDJPY nt
EURJPY nt
EURUSD nt

Total: +15pips

Comment: Moving the stops up to breakeven locked in +15pips for cable. It was more of a ranging day as none of the other pairs triggered.

Date: Thursday 20 September 2007
GBPUSD nt
GBPJPY +45
USDJPY +95
EURJPY +95
EURUSD +95

Total: +330pips

Comment: The 3rd PT on GBPJPY was not quite reached. GBPUSD didn't move much. The other pairs speak for themselves.

Date: Friday 21 September 2007
GBPUSD +95
GBPJPY +95
USDJPY nt
EURJPY +75
EURUSD +15

Total: +280pips

Comment: Another good day.

Total for week ending Friday 21 September 2007: +1050pips
Total for week ending Friday 14 September 2007: -651pips
Total for week ending Friday 7 September 2007: +164pips
Total for week ending Friday 31 August 2007: +585pips

Grand total: +1148pips




bksujal:

Date: Monday 17 September 2007
GBPUSD -60
GBPJPY -60
EURJPY +40

Total: -80pips

Comment: Have adjusted SL to 60pips while keeping TP at 40pips.

Date: Tuesday 18 September 2007
GBPUSD +40
GBPJPY -60
EURJPY +40

Total: +20pips

Comment: A set 60SL for GBPJPY may still not be enough to cover it's volatility. It stands to reason that if a larger stop is used a higher profit target is also justified. The 60SL for GBPUSD and EURJPY seems to be ok so far, though a higher profit target may also be feasible.

Date: Wednesday 19 September 2007
GBPUSD +50
GBPJPY +80
EURJPY +50

Total: +180pips

Comment: A classic ranging day. Now using 80TP, 100SL on GBPJPY and will change to 60TP, 60SL for GBPUSD and EURJPY.

Date: Thursday 20 September
GBPUSD nt
GBPJPY +80
EURJPY +92

Total: +172pips

Comment: Both short and long orders were triggered on EURJPY. Because the range was relatively tight, the profit target of the short trade was close to the entry for the long. I manually closed out the long trade for +32pips. Will consider 1:1 risk/reward on GBPJPY as suggested by sameer666.

Date: Friday 21 September
GBPUSD -60
GBPJPY -100
EURJPY -60

Total: -220pips

Comment: As it was a trending day above and beyond the previous days high for the above pairs, the ranging strategy was not suitable.

Total for week ending Friday 21 September 2007: +72pips
Total for week ending Friday 14 September 2007: -179pips

Grand Total: -107pips
See?? Maybe it did help a bit to achieve those results?? Yes?? No?? Maybe?? I have no idea but at least it seems. Set and forget yes. But IMHO there is nothing wrong to set an alert or something (e-mail, sms, whatever) to send you a note that TP has been hit so move the SL to BE. Believe me that helps.
.
  • #431
  • Sep 23, 2007 6:42am Sep 23, 2007 6:42am
Quoting bullrock
See?? Maybe it did help a bit to achieve those results?? Yes?? No?? Maybe?? I have no idea but at least it seems. Set and forget yes. But IMHO there is nothing wrong to set an alert or something (e-mail, sms, whatever) to send you a note that TP has been hit so move the SL to BE. Believe me that helps.
Yes bullrock, your suggestion was definitely a good one and I apologise for not validating it earlier. I was purposely delaying actively adjusting stops as I wanted to first test this strategy as a set and forget system. Obviously, if one has the time to sit and monitor the trades all day or is on hand after being alerted and makes the right decisions, better results will come. Adjusting the stops to breakeven after the first or second profit target has been reached can (though not always ) be evidence of this.
Thanks again for your input.

mike
  • #432
  • Sep 23, 2007 8:09am Sep 23, 2007 8:09am
Hi Mike,

I think you're doing a spectacular job here, very diligent, extremely thoughtful. But I'm not sure I am up to date with your exact current method, as it has evolved somewhat since you first introduced it to us.

Would you please be so kind as to post your current trading rules?

Very much appreciated, thanks!
Jeff Singer, K2KV
  • #433
  • Sep 23, 2007 8:09pm Sep 23, 2007 8:09pm
Quoting k2kv
Hi Mike,

I think you're doing a spectacular job here, very diligent, extremely thoughtful. But I'm not sure I am up to date with your exact current method, as it has evolved somewhat since you first introduced it to us.

Would you please be so kind as to post your current trading rules?

Very much appreciated, thanks!
Thanks Jeff.

The rules are the same as in post #1. I've tried to remember to update it as new ideas or alterations have been introduced.
The only difference with my approach now is that of actively adjusting stops as profit targets are reached. I've added this as an option in post#1 for those able to monitor or manage their trades instead of using the set and forget approach.
So this opens up a whole lot of options...one may choose to raise stops to breakeven after the first PT is reached, or wait until the 2nd PT is reached before setting the 3rd order's stop at BE.... that's your call.
Though it means not being able to walk away and forget the trades for the day (unless you can trade from a pocket PC ), it will certainly prove more profitable and will definitely help to keep losses to a minimum. So I'm posting results accordingly to show what IS possible with this system.

rgs
mike

PS. I'm also demo trading the "ranging" strategy introduced by bksujal. It is a system in progress and the results are included with Daily95pips result updates.
  • #434
  • Sep 24, 2007 12:42am Sep 24, 2007 12:42am
thanks to you guys for your work. This thread has been looking interesting and a lot of good feedback been coming through.

Mikelath, I was just curious about something. how do you know when to adjust the SL to BE? Do you watch the market or do you have it set to alert you when a TP has been hit? The scary part for me is that once the first TP has been hit, essentially you are halving your SL from 30 pips to 15. Would that then increase the prob. of the stop getting hit in such a tight range?

take care.
  • #435
  • Sep 24, 2007 2:18am Sep 24, 2007 2:18am
Quoting vder
thanks to you guys for your work. This thread has been looking interesting and a lot of good feedback been coming through.

Mikelath, I was just curious about something. how do you know when to adjust the SL to BE? Do you watch the market or do you have it set to alert you when a TP has been hit? The scary part for me is that once the first TP has been hit, essentially you are halving your SL from 30 pips to 15. Would that then increase the prob. of the stop getting hit in such a tight range?

take care.
Hi vder.

Adjusting SL to BE is entirely up to your discretion.
Just to put the matter in perspective, I am only paper trading this system. Sometimes I won't even place a demo trade. I will simply calculate the entry levels and look back over the days price movement and see how the trades would have developed.
Based on this, it's easy for me to view the trades from a 'what if ' perspective. In a live scenario one would need to be much more diligent in monitoring the trades to be ready to adjust the SL to BE when the first or second PT have been reached. If alerts are helpful to do this then that's great.
This thread is merely to show what IS possible to achieve with this system.
The reality in a live situation will certainly be more challenging.
Yes, you are correct in that if SL are adjusted to breakeven the stop will then be only 15pips. Again, this approach opens up a lot more options. Remember that at this point we will have locked in +15pips of profit and will be eradicating any chance of a loss while leaving open a chance for another +80pips of profit. Alternatively, we could wait until the 2nd PT is reached before adjusting the SL to BE. Doing so would also leave open greater downside risk. So at the end of the day it's whatever you're comfortable with.
I hope this answers your question.

rgs
mike
  • #436
  • Sep 24, 2007 3:34pm Sep 24, 2007 3:34pm
Daily95pips:

Date: Monday 24 September 2007
GBPUSD +95
GBPJPY nt
USDJPY nt
EURJPY nt
EURUSD -90

Total: +5pips

Comment: A ranging day.


bksujal:

GBPUSD -60
GBPJPY +100
EURJPY nt

Total: +40pips

Comment: Looking for more volatility during the week.
  • #437
  • Sep 24, 2007 9:57pm Sep 24, 2007 9:57pm
Please I Dont Want Sound Dumb, Please Any One Could Help Me Here< I Try To Open The Ea Form On The Platform Of Mt4 Demo,please How Do I Do That???????????????
  • #438
  • Sep 25, 2007 9:32am Sep 25, 2007 9:32am
Might want to take a look at http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=47967
For me worth trying taking into account the author.

Pr1mer
  • #439
  • Sep 25, 2007 4:08pm Sep 25, 2007 4:08pm
Quoting mikelath
Just a quick note for newbies to the thread:

As suggested by bullrock, using both the Daily95pip and bksujal strategies will hedge against times when the market is either trending or ranging.
We can see from this weeks results that both are proving profitable, though this may not always be the case. Thus, the hedging approach.

mike
hey whats up mikelath i wanted to find out where should i start on the post to see the improve strategy i notice the daily 95 has change can you direct to new what number post so i can try this strategy and also what platform are you using and one other qustion is there a file to find support and resistance that could be added to mt4
  • #440
  • Edited Sep 26, 2007 4:06pm Sep 25, 2007 4:22pm | Edited Sep 26, 2007 4:06pm
Daily95pips:

Date: Monday 24 September 2007
GBPUSD +95
GBPJPY nt
USDJPY nt
EURJPY nt
EURUSD -90

Total: +5pips

Comment: A ranging day.

Date: Tuesday 25 September 2007
GBPUSD +95
GBPJPY +95
USDJPY +95
EURJPY +15
EURUSD +25

Total: +325pips

Comment: Adjusted SL to BE on EURJPY and EURUSD after first PT was reached. EJ was then stopped out and EURUSD was still 5pips up on the remaining 2 orders at around 5pm EST , so manually closed them for an extra +10pips making it a total of +25pips.
A good day for the other pairs.

Date: Wednesday 26 September 2007
GBPUSD -90
GBJPY -90
USDJPY +95
EURJPY +95
EURUSD -90

Total: -80pips

Comment: Mixed results. GU, GJ and EU orders were triggered and retraced before the 1st PT was reached only to be stopped out.


bksujal:

Date: Monday 24 September 2007
GBPUSD -60
GBPJPY +100
EURJPY nt

Total: +40pips

Comment: Looking for more volatility during the week.

Date: Tuesday 25 September 2007
GBPUSD -60
GBPJPY -100
EURJPY -60

Total: -220pips

Comment: Based on the performance of the 'ranging' strategy so far I'm inclined to stick with Daily95pips.

Date: Wednesday 26 September2007
GBPUSD +60
GBPJPY -100
EURJPY -60

Total: -100pips

Comment: This system definitely needs some tweaking.
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