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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #2,141
  • Sep 21, 2007 2:08am Sep 21, 2007 2:08am
Quoting johnedoe
Open positions I can not believe there are still open long positions at these levels......

That chart makes my bull senses tingle

Diminishing USDCAD longs.....increasing USDCAD shorts after 1800+ pips fall...screams out bullbullbullbullbullbullbullbull

Hehehe...I'll be watching the weekly bars on this one...
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #2,142
  • Edited 3:31am Sep 21, 2007 2:47am | Edited 3:31am
Some historical data on our beloved pair:


Chronology of the Canadian dollar:

Aug. 20, 1957 - C$1 worth US$1.0614

1962 - 1970 - dollar fixed at 92.5 cents US

May 31, 1970 - Trudeau government floats currency

April 25, 1974 - floated currency peaks at US$1.0443

Nov. 15, 1976 - Parti Quebecois elected 1:1

End of 1978 - C$1 worth 84 cents US

Feb. 4, 1986 - worth 69.13 cents US

Nov. 4, 1991 - C$1 worth 89.34 cents US

Jan. 21, 2002 - all - time low 61.79 cents US

Sept. 20, 2007 - loonie and greenback at par, first time since 1976

Canadian Retail Sales today should come out better than expected. I guess a deviation from forecasts of positive 0.3-0.5 on the Core Data is likely. No christal ball involved - there is a correlation to Wholesale Sales that is unbroken for 12+months and on average is right. That would possibly dip the pair through 1:1 again.

Best Wishes!
Gnat
  • #2,143
  • Sep 21, 2007 3:13am Sep 21, 2007 3:13am
And the parity is reached!

I remember someone a few months back on this same thread saying that USD and CAD would never reach parity because US citizens go to Canada to purchase stuff and not the other way around and whatnot.

You never know what might happen in forex. If EURUSD took out the parity 5 years ago, why wouldnt USDCAD do it now?
  • #2,144
  • Sep 21, 2007 5:49am Sep 21, 2007 5:49am
Quoting pips_boy
weekly chart USD/CAD down target 0.9761
http://img409.imageshack.us/my.php?image=ucie5.gif
hehe i says down and down
Forex Trading ---> https://t.me/fxdarius
  • #2,145
  • Edited 8:49am Sep 21, 2007 6:26am | Edited 8:49am
Looks like Cad is finally getting hurt by it's strength; moderate failure in both retail and core retail sales. Plus last night the CBC (our national broadcaster) apparently was indicating $/Cad could go to 0.9 (another buy signal)....Now if only the retail specs would go short, longs would be very attractive

(added later)
Sorry SL - I can see you are looking at similar things, & I missed your post. I shouldn't start typing before I've had my coffee...
  • #2,146
  • Sep 21, 2007 4:38pm Sep 21, 2007 4:38pm
Quoting SeekingLight
That chart makes my bull senses tingle

Diminishing USDCAD longs.....increasing USDCAD shorts
I think you're misinterpreting the charts. They clearly show that the retail holders at Oanda are heavily long, mostly from much higher prices (heavily underwater), and have open orders to sell their positions upwards of 1400 pips higher from current levels (very wishful thinking). As a contrarian indicator, this has and continues to spell further weakness in USD/CAD.
  • #2,147
  • Sep 23, 2007 5:03am Sep 23, 2007 5:03am
  •  Trader#0000
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
A picture tells a thousand words - this 30 yr macro assessment indicates CAD is still on the way down in a reversal pattern preparation.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc USDCAD monthly.doc   91 KB | 405 downloads
  • #2,148
  • Sep 23, 2007 6:40am Sep 23, 2007 6:40am
Quoting Trader KGB
I think you're misinterpreting the charts. They clearly show that the retail holders at Oanda are heavily long, mostly from much higher prices (heavily underwater), and have open orders to sell their positions upwards of 1400 pips higher from current levels (very wishful thinking). As a contrarian indicator, this has and continues to spell further weakness in USD/CAD.
Interesting divergence between the retail positions though and the COT non-commercials (usually they line up together). COT NC positions are heavily long CAD against the US (almost 11:1), while at the same time largest traders are heavily shorting CAD, as are the commercials. Fun times ahead, perhaps

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm
  • #2,149
  • Sep 23, 2007 7:22am Sep 23, 2007 7:22am
...
Attached Image
  • #2,150
  • Sep 23, 2007 2:55pm Sep 23, 2007 2:55pm
Quoting HalifaxCB
Interesting divergence between the retail positions though and the COT non-commercials (usually they line up together). COT NC positions are heavily long CAD against the US (almost 11:1), while at the same time largest traders are heavily shorting CAD, as are the commercials. Fun times ahead, perhaps

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm
Just arguing with myself here - but on a contrary position, it's been noted that this week saw the largest fall in $/CAD since 1988 or so (on an open/close basis). What is more unusual is the fall ofer the last 2 weeks; in percentage terms it is the largest on record since 1978, at a little more than 5%. The next largest is 3.7% . In any case, momentum like that is hard to overcome; attached is a plot that shows the percentage change expected on week-to-week closes given percentage decreases over the prior two weeks. Doesn't look good for longs. the bands on either side are the mean high and low, again in percent. (1% at these levels is about 100 pips).
Note the increasing volatility at the end of the line; this is mostly indicative of the smaller sample sizes as the threshold is raised.
Attached Image
  • #2,151
  • Sep 23, 2007 4:33pm Sep 23, 2007 4:33pm
Bobber, yes half full, gonna be a nice long chew over the coming years ahead.
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #2,152
  • Sep 24, 2007 8:43am Sep 24, 2007 8:43am
what do u think guys now!!!!!?????

to 1.0070 -1.0115 or 0.9960-0.9930
  • #2,153
  • Sep 25, 2007 11:05pm Sep 25, 2007 11:05pm
My order from last week just got triggered, Looks like we are starting the retracement. Or could it be as the title states, A trend reversal??????
Nope, just a retracement.
Just Trade It
  • #2,154
  • Sep 25, 2007 11:12pm Sep 25, 2007 11:12pm
Quoting Big Wave Rider
My order from last week just got triggered, Looks like we are starting the retracement. Or could it be as the title states, A trend reversal??????
Nope, just a retracement.
It's a good trade, and it also comes courtesy of the COT report. Should reach respectable levels because it's the first proper retracement in a while. Very neat price action. I've been lucky to go long right at the bottom: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...t=46881&page=4
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #2,155
  • Sep 26, 2007 12:11am Sep 26, 2007 12:11am
Interesting the difference between metatrader and Oanda on price...
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  • #2,156
  • Edited 3:25pm Sep 26, 2007 3:13pm | Edited 3:25pm
http://img178.imageshack.us/img178/2...candlesmm0.jpg

Alex, what were you smoking at 3am !? lol Looks like you lost an hour and a half between taking those screenshots !! I hope you didn't try arbitrage http://www.runemasterstudios.com/gra...es/roflmao.gif
In anycase Good Trading to you,
  • #2,157
  • Sep 26, 2007 4:33pm Sep 26, 2007 4:33pm
Yes well I didn't trade at all seeing that he he, actually I had an issue with my broadband which was affecting the feed, newbies be aware!!

All the best of pips you

A

Quoting WhipSawFX
http://img178.imageshack.us/img178/2...candlesmm0.jpg

Alex, what were you smoking at 3am !? lol Looks like you lost an hour and a half between taking those screenshots !! I hope you didn't try arbitrage http://www.runemasterstudios.com/gra...es/roflmao.gif
In anycase Good Trading to you,
  • #2,158
  • Sep 26, 2007 6:02pm Sep 26, 2007 6:02pm
This predictions for the coming Canadian Movement

Now the price began to form the fourth wave of third , target to almost 1.0175

Then begin to decline to 0.9960 at least

http://www.moneyexpertsclub.net/foru...1&d=1190831401
  • #2,159
  • Sep 30, 2007 6:20pm Sep 30, 2007 6:20pm
With oil going up this winter i am looking for a shor ride here to a possible 0.9600 by mid Dec.
  • #2,160
  • Oct 1, 2007 4:57am Oct 1, 2007 4:57am
I have just bought usd/cad 0.9943 and expect it to hit at least 1.0005
Your views please..



rgds,
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