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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #30,621
  • Sep 20, 2007 11:58pm Sep 20, 2007 11:58pm
Quoting auslanco
For the last 2 years.. The only analysis I follow blindly is from Citigroup . Every single time when I have taken their recommendations I have made tons of pips. The last reccomenadation was to BUY AUD/JPY about 3 weeks ago, I entered without even looking at my charts and I closed my position with 240 pips profit.

Here's their latest U/J prediction..

CITIGROUP SEES USD/JPY FALLING TO 110 BY YEAR-END V ITS PRIOR FORECAST OF 105
- According to Citigroup investor risk appetite has been supported.

and Euro/USD

CITIGROUP SEES EUR/USD AT $1.41 BY YEAR END V ITS PRIOR FORECAST OF $1.39

When do you get this news, Aus?
  • #30,622
  • Sep 21, 2007 12:00am Sep 21, 2007 12:00am
Quoting auslanco
CITIGROUP SEES EUR/USD AT $1.41 BY YEAR END V ITS PRIOR FORECAST OF $1.39

EU is at 1.4092 right now, so that is not exactly going out on a limb.
  • #30,623
  • Sep 21, 2007 12:01am Sep 21, 2007 12:01am
Quoting mktjong
When do you get this news, Aus?

It comes on TTN (tradethenews.com)
  • #30,624
  • Sep 21, 2007 12:02am Sep 21, 2007 12:02am
Quoting markam
EU is at 1.4092 right now, so that is not exactly going out on a limb.

well that also means Euro/USD will not go below the 1.400 until end of this year.
  • #30,625
  • Sep 21, 2007 12:03am Sep 21, 2007 12:03am
Quoting mktjong
Finally, it's unbelievable. I remembered when I first started trading forex, it was 1.30, imagine ..
If I would have shorted since, I probably would have paid off my mortgage now http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif .. who could have guessed ..
it is amazing how much money you could have made in forex.
  • #30,626
  • Sep 21, 2007 12:03am Sep 21, 2007 12:03am
30 min and 1 hour 5 SMA's are still around 231, so retraces to that area will be happening for awhile. If you're already short, keep your SL comfortably above the 1 hour 5 SMA, even when we break the current support.

Ron http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
  • #30,627
  • Sep 21, 2007 12:04am Sep 21, 2007 12:04am
Quoting markam
USD/CAD currently .9961 and dropping. Bernanke so screwed the US this week.
Markam,

Benanke did not only screw the US but also screwed all manufactures that ship into the US.

I own a manufacturing company in Canada that sells into the US. In the past 4 years I have seen my revenue increase as production increased to meet demand. The only problem is that my business sales are in US funds and expenses are paid in Canadian funds. Therefore every penny lost in exchange ultimately evaporated from my bottom line.

Canada has an abundance of operations like mine. In fact I would say that my type of business is what forms the backbone of our employment in Canada.

That being said, tomorrow we will lay off 15% of our workforce. Not because of lagging demand but because of exchange rates.

The Canadian government is heading full steam ahead into a brick wall with our monetary policy. Our natural resources will be our undoing. They simply cloud the very real underlying problem of parity to the US.

A couple of examples of how screwed up things are: 1,500 dollar camera in Canada is 899 in the US, Lambo Gallardo Spider in Canada is 325K – US 260K.

A Honda Civic purchased in the US will save you 7K compared to Canada.

The next year will be very interesting indeed.


Short since 232.07 yesterday.
  • #30,628
  • Sep 21, 2007 12:05am Sep 21, 2007 12:05am
Quoting auslanco
For the last 2 years.. The only analysis I follow blindly is from Citigroup...
I am looking on their web and have not found any reference to their fx analysis... you have a link or contact info?
  • #30,629
  • Sep 21, 2007 12:06am Sep 21, 2007 12:06am
Quoting bablo
Markam,

Benanke did not only screw the US but also screwed all manufactures that ship into the US.
Wow.. I thought only Markam had a crush on Bernake:
  • #30,630
  • Sep 21, 2007 12:12am Sep 21, 2007 12:12am
Quoting markam
it is amazing how much money you could have made in forex.
yeah .. if you get it right otherwise the opposite is true http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
  • #30,631
  • Sep 21, 2007 12:17am Sep 21, 2007 12:17am
aus--aroows there--qqe60 about to cross soon
  • #30,632
  • Sep 21, 2007 12:20am Sep 21, 2007 12:20am
Quoting bablo
Markam,

Benanke did not only screw the US but also screwed all manufactures that ship into the US.

I own a manufacturing company in Canada that sells into the US. In the past 4 years I have seen my revenue increase as production increased to meet demand. The only problem is that my business sales are in US funds and expenses are paid in Canadian funds. Therefore every penny lost in exchange ultimately evaporated from my bottom line.

Canada has an abundance of operations like mine. In fact I would say that my type of business is what forms the backbone of our employment in Canada.

That being said, tomorrow we will lay off 15% of our workforce. Not because of lagging demand but because of exchange rates.

The Canadian government is heading full steam ahead into a brick wall with our monetary policy. Our natural resources will be our undoing. They simply cloud the very real underlying problem of parity to the US.

A couple of examples of how screwed up things are: 1,500 dollar camera in Canada is 899 in the US, Lambo Gallardo Spider in Canada is 325K – US 260K.

A Honda Civic purchased in the US will save you 7K compared to Canada.

The next year will be very interesting indeed.


Short since 232.07 yesterday.
Sorry to here about your situation. Unfortunately, for many, many years, the US has had an overvalued currency which has allowed companies from all over the world to sell profitably to the US. The strong dollar is one factor (along with government policy and corporate greed) that has resulted in the destruction of most sectors of manufacturing in the US. With a weak dollar, the US and the world now have a real problem. We now longer have the capability of making many products, and cannot (or will not) pay the higher costs for foreign products. The foreign manufacturers will slowly but surely be forced out of the US market, and there is not another US out there to sell to.

The reality is that the decline of the dollar is going to result in a global reduction in economic output.

As far a natural resources, you canadians are really screwing up by depleting your natural gas resources to supply gas to the US and to try and produce oil from your tar sands. When the NG is depleted, Canada is going to be an very cold place in the winter.
  • #30,633
  • Sep 21, 2007 12:23am Sep 21, 2007 12:23am
aus-- your views is still 228.50 within nxt 24hrs as per signature?

still biased short buddy?
  • #30,634
  • Sep 21, 2007 12:31am Sep 21, 2007 12:31am
Hi, I would like to seek the opinions of the seniors in this forum. I'm quite new to forex and pardon me if I come off as a total noob.

I went in for a short at 230.97 and have not put in a SL because I am monitoring it. However, I would like to "get a life" and away from my PC and will not be back till hours later.

I currently see a Tower Top on the GBPJPY pair which indicates a bearish signal. The Support 1 that I have plotted stands at 229.76.

My question is, should I let my trade run without putting a SL and TP modestly at 229.92 even though some of the forummers here have indicated that it will go lower.

I know not putting SL is the first "sin" but knowing how the GBPJPY moves, sometimes it stops you out just barely before going into your direction.

Thank you.
May the Pips be with You Let's Pimp some Pips!
  • #30,635
  • Sep 21, 2007 12:34am Sep 21, 2007 12:34am
Just woke up to see 1 SL got hit, It's cool.. loss is part of the business

Took a new short from 50ema 15m @ 230.84
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #30,636
  • Sep 21, 2007 12:36am Sep 21, 2007 12:36am
Quoting markam
Sorry to here about your situation. Unfortunately, for many, many years, the US has had an overvalued currency which has allowed companies from all over the world to sell profitably to the US.
You’re absolutely right about NG. Approximately 10 years ago the Canadian NG pipe line was connected to the US. That day demand exceeded supply and my NG cost jumped 18%. Translation cost increased approx 20K per month.

Canada is going to hell in a handcart and Dodge is at the helm.

As for selling into the US: We have started exporting to EU and will continue to do so as quickly as possible. I get an extra 40% on that transaction.

The product that I manufacture is Decaffeinated Coffee. There are only 28 facilities worldwide, of which 3 exist in the US. Prices will eventually increase as all our FX shorts are closed. The US is in for a reality check very soon.
  • #30,637
  • Sep 21, 2007 12:37am Sep 21, 2007 12:37am
Quoting RookieJookie
Hi, I would like to seek the opinions of the seniors in this forum. I'm quite new to forex and pardon me if I come off as a total noob.

I went in for a short at 230.97 and have not put in a SL because I am monitoring it. However, I would like to "get a life" and away from my PC and will not be back till hours later.

I currently see a Tower Top on the GBPJPY pair which indicates a bearish signal. The Support 1 that I have plotted stands at 229.76.

My question is, should I let my trade run without putting a SL and TP modestly at 229.92 even though some of the forummers here have indicated that it will go lower.

I know not putting SL is the first "sin" but knowing how the GBPJPY moves, sometimes it stops you out just barely before going into your direction.

Thank you.
better to be safe than sorry. if you are utilizing proper money management then a losing trade will put you back 1%. no biggie. What if this one time g/j decides to go against you, and never turn back? as a noob (no offence) you will likely hold onto the losing trade thinking "oh it will come back, it has to), then before you know it there goes 20, 30, 50% of your account! And what if you lost power/internet or your pc all of a sudden broke? lots of things can happen man.
  • #30,638
  • Sep 21, 2007 12:40am Sep 21, 2007 12:40am
Quoting Hakuna Matata
aus-- your views is still 228.50 within nxt 24hrs as per signature?

still biased short buddy?
Price is still above and bouncing off the the daily Pivot 230.70 for the last 30 mins.. if it breaks and forms a 1hr or 30min bar.. below that level.. 228 is back in action..
Currently it's 70%bearish, and looks good.
  • #30,639
  • Sep 21, 2007 12:40am Sep 21, 2007 12:40am
Quoting karmostaji
Just woke up to see 1 SL got hit, It's cool.. loss is part of the business

Took a new short from 50ema 15m @ 230.84

bro --i was wondering where u are?
wanted to make u aware of the price near your s/l--and to alert u to remove it actually---coz my system had shown a major R and very proabable reversl at 231.50
nxt time ill phone u
  • #30,640
  • Sep 21, 2007 12:41am Sep 21, 2007 12:41am
Quoting auslanco
Price is still above and bouncing off the the daily Pivot 230.70 for the last 30 mins.. if it breaks and forms a 1hr or 30min bar.. below that level.. 228 is back in action..
Currently it's 70%bearish, and looks good.

cheers buddy
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