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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #29,781
  • Sep 20, 2007 2:56am Sep 20, 2007 2:56am
Since the retail sales are going to be down (expected) and if it really so happens, then do we expect all GBP/XYZ pairs to be heading south?
  • #29,782
  • Sep 20, 2007 2:58am Sep 20, 2007 2:58am
Quoting auslanco
Ususally GJ is more likely to follow UJ in this scenario. We will know after the news.
again mathematics

if current rates on UJ is 115.50 and GU 2.0000 - for example

we have GJ - 115.50 * 2.0000 = 231

if we have up on GU + 5 pips GJ will be 115.50 * 2.0005 = 231.0577
if we have up on UJ +5 pips GJ will be 115.55 * 2.0000 = 231.10

Conclusion - UJ is stronger
  • #29,783
  • Sep 20, 2007 3:03am Sep 20, 2007 3:03am
Quoting venci
again mathematics
bro.. what are you, a human calculator:

Great analysis
  • #29,784
  • Sep 20, 2007 3:06am Sep 20, 2007 3:06am
Quoting Islander
If I remember correctly, the Euro only became an "official currency" on Jan 1st 2000 - but I take your point that there was a "calculated / synthetic" euro before then. Was it actually traded before that date? - or just a calculation.
Honestly, I don't know the history of the Euro enough to be able to say when it 'officially' became a recognized currency. I'm not sure what you mean by a 'calculated/synthetic Euro'. I just know what the charts tell me. This chart actually shows Euro going back to 1989. This tells me that Euro was being traded that far back. These charts are not created on a hypothetical basis of what might have been. They are real charts showing real occurences of trading. I personally don't trade the Euro anymore so I don't follow it. Your comment simply got me curious and I just thought I'd take a little stroll back into its traded history. Interesting stuff.

M2B
  • #29,785
  • Sep 20, 2007 3:07am Sep 20, 2007 3:07am
15min charts
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  • #29,786
  • Sep 20, 2007 3:11am Sep 20, 2007 3:11am
Quoting auslanco
15min charts
In next 20minutes
  • #29,787
  • Sep 20, 2007 3:14am Sep 20, 2007 3:14am
Bill,

Did a google image search on 'pizda' and this was the photo that came up.

M2B

PS- put it this way, this is the only printable photo that came up that could be shown in this thread.
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  • #29,788
  • Sep 20, 2007 3:15am Sep 20, 2007 3:15am
07:21 FX OPTIONS: 3m USD/JPY Downside Strikes Trades In Size London, September 20. Dealers reporting a big downside strike going through on the 3m date in early London Thursday. Namely a 10 delta JPY call (strike around 106.10) @ 12.3 on USD 600mln . [email protected]
  • #29,789
  • Sep 20, 2007 3:16am Sep 20, 2007 3:16am
Quote
If I remember correctly, the Euro only became an "official currency" on Jan 1st 2000 - but I take your point that there was a "calculated / synthetic" euro before then. Was it actually traded before that date? - or just a calculation.
Quote
Honestly, I don't know the history of the Euro enough to be able to say when it 'officially' became a recognized currency. I'm not sure what you mean by a 'calculated/synthetic Euro'. I just know what the charts tell me. This chart actually shows Euro going back to 1989. This tells me that Euro was being traded that far back. These charts are not created on a hypothetical basis of what might have been. They are real charts showing real occurences of trading. I personally don't trade the Euro anymore so I don't follow it. Your comment simply got me curious and I just thought I'd take a little stroll back into its traded history. Interesting stuff.

M2B



The euro began trading in 1999... Prior to that the main ccy pair traded was Usd/Dem (Deutschmark).

Charts prior to 1999 are "synethetic" in that they show/calulate what the euro value was based on a weighted average of the exchange rates of the euro area countries ie.. Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands etc etc
  • #29,790
  • Sep 20, 2007 3:17am Sep 20, 2007 3:17am
Quoting my2buoys
Bill,

Did a google image search on 'pizda' and this was the photo that came up.

M2B

PS- put it this way, this is the only printable photo that came up that could be shown in this thread.


  • #29,791
  • Sep 20, 2007 3:21am Sep 20, 2007 3:21am
Preview - Sterling Faces Vital Retail Sales Test
The UK retail sales series tends to be volatile on a monthly basis and there are particular again risks surrounding this month’s release on Thursday. The consensus is for sales to be unchanged over the month, but there is an important risk of a monthly change of more than 1.0% in either direction.

Weather conditions were again poor in August which will have a significant impact with a probable reduction in sales in key seasonal areas. Weak demand is also likely to have triggered further price discounting.

The sales data, however, records changes in volumes and any price cutting will also have an important impact on sales volumes which is liable to distort the data and could push volumes higher. This effect was seen in last month’s data as higher volumes were achieved at the cost of lower prices. The prices element will, therefore, be watched closely in the data.

Expectations of a further rise in UK interest rates has reversed and markets are now considering the possibility of a cut. A weak sales report would reinforce speculation that the bank will move quickly to cut rates by the end of 2007.

In this context, the UK currency is liable to react more to a weaker than expected report, especially as Sterling sentiment has deteriorated over the last week. In an immediate reaction, Sterling is liable to drop sharply on a headline sales drop of more than 0.6% and an annual increase of less than 3.5%.

An increase of more than 0.6% would spark initial gains, but the composition of the report is likely to mean that rallies are liable to be sold into relatively quickly.
__________________

Tim Clayton
Investica Ltd Head of Research
Forex Factory Senior Analyst
  • #29,792
  • Sep 20, 2007 3:23am Sep 20, 2007 3:23am
Quoting my2buoys
Honestly, I don't know the history of the Euro enough to be able to say when it 'officially' became a recognized currency. I'm not sure what you mean by a 'calculated/synthetic Euro'. I just know what the charts tell me. This chart actually shows Euro going back to 1989. This tells me that Euro was being traded that far back. These charts are not created on a hypothetical basis of what might have been. They are real charts showing real occurences of trading. I personally don't trade the Euro anymore so I don't follow it. Your comment simply got me curious and I just thought I'd take a little stroll back into its traded history. Interesting stuff.

M2B
Prior to Jan 1 2000, the National Currencies were still used and I believe that only Banks traded the Euro. Certainly, the initial trading was low volume and heavily correlated to the DM.

I think it was sometime in the mid / late 1990s when the final conversion rates of the DM, Franc, Lira, Peseta etc were fixed.

As you said, interesting stuff!
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #29,793
  • Sep 20, 2007 3:23am Sep 20, 2007 3:23am
This news appears to be GBP/USD negative.
  • #29,794
  • Sep 20, 2007 3:24am Sep 20, 2007 3:24am
Quoting my2buoys
Bill,

Did a google image search on 'pizda' and this was the photo that came up.

M2B

PS- put it this way, this is the only printable photo that came up that could be shown in this thread.
close, but a four leged animal that goes miow would be closer. anyway enough of me talking rubish, my weekly pivot on vt shows 231.82 it might be diferent to aus's readings but its efective for me now. Also the 5m 100sma has been hit 8 times in the last hour and half on mt4 chart.
  • #29,795
  • Sep 20, 2007 3:25am Sep 20, 2007 3:25am
Quoting BigFace
The euro began trading in 1999... Prior to that the main ccy pair traded was Usd/Dem (Deutschmark).

Charts prior to 1999 are "synethetic" in that they show/calulate what the euro value was based on a weighted average of the exchange rates of the euro area countries ie.. Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands etc etc
BF,

Thanks for that clarification. I personally enjoy all kinds of history. Again, interesting stuff.

M2B
  • #29,796
  • Sep 20, 2007 3:28am Sep 20, 2007 3:28am
How can you tell?
  • #29,797
  • Sep 20, 2007 3:28am Sep 20, 2007 3:28am
Quoting auslanco
This news appears to be GBP/USD negative.

For me pound is very unstable and crash is more likely
It’s just emotions & money
  • #29,798
  • Sep 20, 2007 3:30am Sep 20, 2007 3:30am
Just wondering, is Australia having any subprime or Northern Rock (lending) type of problems? Or is everything going well?
  • #29,799
  • Sep 20, 2007 3:32am Sep 20, 2007 3:32am
Retail sales up..... GBP positive.
  • #29,800
  • Sep 20, 2007 3:33am Sep 20, 2007 3:33am
*(UK) AUG RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.6% V 0.0%E; Y/Y: 4.9% V 4.0%E
- No Revisions


(UK) AUG BSA MORTGAGE APPROVALS: £3.93B V £3.594B PRIOR
- Prior revised to £3.632B from £


*(UK) AUG PRELIMINARY M4 MONEY SUPPLY M/M: 1.2% V 0.8%E; Y/Y: 13.5% V 12.9%E
- M4 Streling lending: £23B v £15.1Be
- Prior M4 MoM revised from 1.0% to 1.1%
- Prior M4 Sterling Lending revised from £24.6B to £25.3B
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