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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #2,121
  • Sep 17, 2007 5:43pm Sep 17, 2007 5:43pm
I think we'll be seeing 1.01 tomorrow or lower 1.02s but a drop of 200pips or more isn't impossible for U/Cad either so first lets see how the PPI data comes in and from there we'll get a better idea otherwise the trend/bias is still down
  • #2,122
  • Sep 18, 2007 3:09pm Sep 18, 2007 3:09pm
Nice calls MoForce. BTW - take a look at the fib levels generated by the last rise - 1.618 is sitting right about parity...
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  • #2,123
  • Sep 18, 2007 3:49pm Sep 18, 2007 3:49pm
anyone still on the reversal business

Petrol up, dollar down... How much would you bet against the downtrend...

Personnaly, i think 0.01$ should be a high risk
  • #2,124
  • Sep 18, 2007 9:42pm Sep 18, 2007 9:42pm
Quoting melpheos
anyone still on the reversal business

Petrol up, dollar down... How much would you bet against the downtrend...

Personnaly, i think 0.01$ should be a high risk
You also have to consider gold and the Canadian Economy's recent strength.
Parity seems reasonable a lot sooner than the expected Christmas time expectation from a few months ago by leading Canadian economists.
Someone humble lies about being lucky, someone arrogant simply lies.
  • #2,125
  • Sep 18, 2007 11:46pm Sep 18, 2007 11:46pm
Tomorrow is the core CPI coming out. Half of the economists are expecting 0.1%, and another half: 0.2%. If that comes out flat and 0% or negative, I think USD/CAD may possibly gain 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report
  • #2,126
  • Sep 19, 2007 8:31am Sep 19, 2007 8:31am
Browsing through Oanda's positions charts, it seems that USD/CAD is still a prime short - with 80% of traders long consistently over the last 2 weeks, while the pair dropped 4%.

http://fxlabs.oanda.com/cgi/fxlabs.pl?id=8
  • #2,127
  • Sep 19, 2007 9:50am Sep 19, 2007 9:50am
Quoting melpheos
anyone still on the reversal business

Petrol up, dollar down... How much would you bet against the downtrend...

Personnaly, i think 0.01$ should be a high risk
*tentative raising of hand*

Not today perhaps(?), but soon ;p
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #2,128
  • Sep 20, 2007 2:59am Sep 20, 2007 2:59am
wooooooooooooooooooow 1.0080 ??
  • #2,129
  • Sep 20, 2007 6:12am Sep 20, 2007 6:12am
Quoting yahte
wooooooooooooooooooow 1.0080 ??
1.0040... Parity here it goes
  • #2,130
  • Sep 20, 2007 8:28am Sep 20, 2007 8:28am
So, who loads the boat long at par?
  • #2,131
  • Sep 20, 2007 8:33am Sep 20, 2007 8:33am
Quoting cesande
So, who loads the boat long at par?
Depends on US Data
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,132
  • Sep 20, 2007 9:04am Sep 20, 2007 9:04am
Under normal conditions, we are over due for significant retrace.

500+ drop
first time test of major support, which happens to be PARITY


we only get a bounce to 1.0030

With so little respect for parity, any fib/pivots will be ignored

Suggestions


Any suggestions
  • #2,133
  • Sep 20, 2007 9:26am Sep 20, 2007 9:26am
Quoting dakid
Under normal conditions, we are over due for significant retrace.

500+ drop
first time test of major support, which happens to be PARITY


we only get a bounce to 1.0030

With so little respect for parity, any fib/pivots will be ignored

Suggestions


Any suggestions
I'd give it time. FWIW, I've got the 1.618 extension (from the late July low to the Aug high) at about 7 pips above parity, and usually it goes a bit further befor retracing. Especially when there may be a load of stops underneath....
  • #2,134
  • Sep 20, 2007 10:57am Sep 20, 2007 10:57am
Quoting OrionsWay
Longs in play again,targeting 1.11xx . looking round 2 of meltdown in Yen, short the carry
Don't forget to chew before you swallow
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  • #2,135
  • Sep 20, 2007 12:21pm Sep 20, 2007 12:21pm
Someday I'd like to meet this army of blind USD bulls at Oanda and slap them silly..
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  • #2,136
  • Sep 20, 2007 12:32pm Sep 20, 2007 12:32pm
Quoting Trader KGB
Someday I'd like to meet this army of blind USD bulls at Oanda and slap them silly..
I think the market is doing it for you .
I was actually a little concerned early this am about reaching parity when I saw that the USD/CAD bulls had retreated from over 80% to around 77%
  • #2,137
  • Edited 10:23pm Sep 20, 2007 10:12pm | Edited 10:23pm
Quoting HalifaxCB
Nice calls MoForce. BTW - take a look at the fib levels generated by the last rise - 1.618 is sitting right about parity...
Thanks.....

wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee! 1!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11111111!!!!111!!!!1!1!!!!!!!!11111

I knew it all along. I'm proud of u Canada! Well I guess we'll have to see the next couple days to see where this is heading now. I don't think it'll go beyond 0.88 but it may go to that level after some retracement and sideways movement
  • #2,138
  • Sep 20, 2007 11:00pm Sep 20, 2007 11:00pm
but what think BOC? And goverment
  • #2,139
  • Sep 20, 2007 11:46pm Sep 20, 2007 11:46pm
Niether Canada NOR the US WANT Parity! ! !

So... Where's it gonna be in a year?

Doh! Wish I had started to scale into Shorts back in '07
mho.
  • #2,140
  • Sep 21, 2007 12:13am Sep 21, 2007 12:13am
Open positions I can not believe there are still open long positions at these levels......

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/resources/t...ve_USD_CAD.png


Open orders

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/resources/t...ve_USD_CAD.png
Same Whore .... Different Dress
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