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Another way to trade PA profitably

  • #121
  • Sep 14, 2007 7:09pm Sep 14, 2007 7:09pm
Hm I am still lacking a decent source for COTs and a good visual representation.

I'm also still not convinced at all that it works for me...maybe I'm just unable to interpret it correctly...it'd help a lot if there were actual pictures posted as well with an explanation along with the PA accompanying it, giving the whole thing a bit of meaning...

Currently it's just some posts that could be anything...I read "long USDCHF will be great next week", I look at the USDX and think...."hohum....how's that thing going to fly..." even though one never can tell...

So anything in that direction would help
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #122
  • Sep 15, 2007 12:47am Sep 15, 2007 12:47am
Quoting SeekingLight
Hm I am still lacking a decent source for COTs and a good visual representation.

I'm also still not convinced at all that it works for me...maybe I'm just unable to interpret it correctly...it'd help a lot if there were actual pictures posted as well with an explanation along with the PA accompanying it, giving the whole thing a bit of meaning...

Currently it's just some posts that could be anything...I read "long USDCHF will be great next week", I look at the USDX and think...."hohum....how's that thing going to fly..." even though one never can tell...

So anything in that direction would help
maybe wait another week or two and see what happens?
Take a report.
  • #123
  • Sep 15, 2007 3:49pm Sep 15, 2007 3:49pm
Quoting SeekingLight
Hm I am still lacking a decent source for COTs and a good visual representation.

I'm also still not convinced at all that it works for me...maybe I'm just unable to interpret it correctly...it'd help a lot if there were actual pictures posted as well with an explanation along with the PA accompanying it, giving the whole thing a bit of meaning...

Currently it's just some posts that could be anything...I read "long USDCHF will be great next week", I look at the USDX and think...."hohum....how's that thing going to fly..." even though one never can tell...

So anything in that direction would help
Hi SL

As I am sure you are aware, the whole of this method's analysis revolves around what the commercials are doing for the week, according to the attached chart they are short CHF and we should follow them based on the PA on daily charts during the coming week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CHF.png Size: 22 KB
Regards
  • #124
  • Sep 16, 2007 9:47am Sep 16, 2007 9:47am
Quoting CateFul
yes and vice versa. Be aware of this week's COT.
Cateful...
Have you ever tried Indexes such as Nasdag, Hangseng or Nikkei? Can we use the same format to predict Indexes? I've tried to get the COT Charts for Hangseng but couldn't get the commercial and spec on the charts.
  • #125
  • Sep 16, 2007 12:36pm Sep 16, 2007 12:36pm
Looking at the charts below, I still confused with the COT chart, or are they the correct ones? The commercials are still shorting euro but the chart shows uptrend price. SeekingLight, I am seeking light...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro.gif Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: euro2.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #126
  • Sep 16, 2007 12:53pm Sep 16, 2007 12:53pm
Quoting B4dak
Cateful...
Have you ever tried Indexes such as Nasdag, Hangseng or Nikkei? Can we use the same format to predict Indexes? I've tried to get the COT Charts for Hangseng but couldn't get the commercial and spec on the charts.
no, indices are artificial commodities, commercials don't hedge them.
Take a report.
  • #127
  • Sep 16, 2007 12:54pm Sep 16, 2007 12:54pm
Quoting BillGates
Looking at the charts below, I still confused with the COT chart, or are they the correct ones? The commercials are still shorting euro but the chart shows uptrend price. SeekingLight, I am seeking light...
your chart shows net positions.
use COT index 24 weeks instead.
Take a report.
  • #128
  • Sep 16, 2007 3:59pm Sep 16, 2007 3:59pm
Quoting BillGates
Looking at the charts below, I still confused with the COT chart, or are they the correct ones? The commercials are still shorting euro but the chart shows uptrend price. SeekingLight, I am seeking light...
I am not SL but EUR chart attached hereto
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR.png Size: 22 KB
Regards
  • #129
  • Sep 16, 2007 6:15pm Sep 16, 2007 6:15pm
Quoting BillGates
Looking at the charts below, I still confused with the COT chart, or are they the correct ones? The commercials are still shorting euro but the chart shows uptrend price. SeekingLight, I am seeking light...
Guys, I'm the wrong person to ask, hence me asking for the "right" source of COTs(which site / source / feed?) and what to look for in the first place.
The only useful correlation I have found is spikes to the extreme on both commercials and small investors, everything else is just unclear wavering to me and gives me no sort of edge at all. I haven't traded COTs ever no do I right now.

I was trying to make some use of it, but all cateful said was
Quote
"maybe wait another week or two and see what happens? "
which wasn't really a big help towards this end.

As for CHF weakness - CHF can be weak all that it wants, if the USD is even worse off then the CHF could devaluate through EURCHF for example, but still end up going "up" on USDCHF (usdchf going lower).
Heck I don't know. Right now USDCHF is wobbly, EURCHF up and GBPCHF down(mostly EURGBP to blame).
If that's clarity for you, then you're better off than me

Still clueless here. Having a high post count doesn't help predicting unclear markets I'm afraid...I'm also afraid of everyone always making me out as a forex god, I'm just a humble beginner still, just on the outset of perhaps a long, long journey...I'm just as lost as anyone without clear setups or situations
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #130
  • Sep 16, 2007 6:19pm Sep 16, 2007 6:19pm
Quoting CateFul
no, indices are artificial commodities, commercials don't hedge them.
Hi

Great thread here, nice idea and definitely overlooked by many. Now if you look at timingcharts.com (and I have no idea on the reliability of those charts) you will find that indices like Dow and S&P are plotted as well, and that for some reason they also seem to behave in the same way with respect to commercials.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #131
  • Sep 16, 2007 6:35pm Sep 16, 2007 6:35pm
Quoting SeekingLight
Guys, I'm the wrong person to ask, hence me asking for the "right" source of COTs(which site / source / feed?) and what to look for in the first place.
The only useful correlation I have found is spikes to the extreme on both commercials and small investors, everything else is just unclear wavering to me and gives me no sort of edge at all. I haven't traded COTs ever no do I right now.

I was trying to make some use of it, but all cateful said was which wasn't really a big help towards this end.
The actual source is the reports:
http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/co...ders/index.htm

which this site
http://www.timingcharts.com/index.php
translates into an index somehow. I'm not sure how they get the information for currencies because I couldn't find it in my quick scan of the reports. Maybe cateful can explain?

And yes you use it like you said (not necessarily looking at the small traders) although it works slightly different for different currencies/contracts. I am new to this so take my words lightly.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #132
  • Sep 16, 2007 6:38pm Sep 16, 2007 6:38pm
Quoting Plutonite
Hi

Great thread here, nice idea and definitely overlooked by many. Now if you look at timingcharts.com (and I have no idea on the reliability of those charts) you will find that indices like Dow and S&P are plotted as well, and that for some reason they also seem to behave in the same way with respect to commercials.
Yes they do behave in the same way on the chart. I can't figure out why. Maybe because buying indices = buying a number of stocks at once? I'm not really sure.
Take a report.
  • #133
  • Sep 16, 2007 6:40pm Sep 16, 2007 6:40pm
Quoting Plutonite
The actual source is the reports:
http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/co...ders/index.htm

which this site
http://www.timingcharts.com/index.php
translates into an index somehow. I'm not sure how they get the information for currencies because I couldn't find it in my quick scan of the reports. Maybe cateful can explain?

And yes you use it like you said (not necessarily looking at the small traders) although it works slightly different for different currencies/contracts. I am new to this so take my words lightly.
currency futures are released under CME.
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm
Take a report.
  • #134
  • Sep 19, 2007 3:57pm Sep 19, 2007 3:57pm
Cateful,
I hope you are still in audjpy, its taken off ...I got out of audusd and usdjpy too early! Still, had nice profit on those... Looks like the commercials are still very short jpy although usdjpy has stalled a bit now. Combined with the j16 PA I really enjoy trading like this and am able to hold longer term ie have a life not sitting in front of the screen...take care, Raz
Never say never.
  • #135
  • Sep 19, 2007 5:25pm Sep 19, 2007 5:25pm
Quoting razldazl
Cateful,
I hope you are still in audjpy, its taken off ...I got out of audusd and usdjpy too early! Still, had nice profit on those... Looks like the commercials are still very short jpy although usdjpy has stalled a bit now. Combined with the j16 PA I really enjoy trading like this and am able to hold longer term ie have a life not sitting in front of the screen...take care, Raz
That's funny, I just ended up closing all of mine out

Let's see if that was a good or bad decision after Asia lol ;p

IBs abound..

*fingers crossed*
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #136
  • Sep 25, 2007 1:04am Sep 25, 2007 1:04am
Hey guys,
Lets try and keep this thread alive, any thoughts suggestions ideas welcome. Cateful seems to have abandoned us here : (come baaaaaack cateful) but I am very interested in incorporating the cots data into my trading..so lets see where it takes us. The timing charts are pretty clear. A lot of the articles Ive read on cot trading focus more on the non commercials which is confusing though, ie Kathy Lien and a few others Ive googled up. Anyway, have a great day all, take care, Raz
Never say never.
  • #137
  • Apr 14, 2008 10:40am Apr 14, 2008 10:40am
This was a good thread, why abandoning it? If Cateful is still around he/she is really welcome back. Time has proved that if you apply your knowledge of PA to advertised COT positions you may well find some grains of truth. Not necessarily a Holy Grail but COT may be customized towards your own system. I tried to use the commercial readings as I saw them, rather on the contrarian side of the market, i.e. Follow the Commercials when the Market is against them, play against the Commercials when everyone follows them. Looks simple and sometimes it hurts.
I am a very humble trader Up 380 pips - two trades.
  • #138
  • Apr 14, 2008 3:27pm Apr 14, 2008 3:27pm
let's get some fun back, folks. I've never indulged myself in Elliot wave's theory but here's the trick.

COT saw a large increase of the commercials 2 weeks ago with almost no change reported last week. So, I know that looking at the recent price action I should be waiting for a long signal. Last week I remained cable long and closed the position for a profit.

We can review today's PA from multiple angles - bounce from the resistance (see the chart) with a probable formation of a daily pinbar, or the fifth wave forming at the current pullback?

I am choosing the second trip, just for the fun of it, and go long second time at 1.9750, SL - below 1.9592.
Attached Image
I am a very humble trader Up 380 pips - two trades.
  • #139
  • Apr 17, 2008 6:21am Apr 17, 2008 6:21am
I know I was walking on a blade 2 days ago with this long being 7 pips shy of sl but, hey, commercials propped me up and it seems this resistance line is due for a break - exactly the fifth elliot wave as we spoke. Commercials! do me a favour, please!
Attached Image
I am a very humble trader Up 380 pips - two trades.
  • #140
  • Apr 17, 2008 10:15am Apr 17, 2008 10:15am
I will be waiting for the next COT report to show me if there is a change of sentiment but so far I should thank the commercials.

..and the Elliot Wave Theory.
I am a very humble trader Up 380 pips - two trades.
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