Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

Thursday December 14 at 4:15 ET

Trade Experiment #285 Sell USD/CHF at 1.2078

Stop is 1.2106

Target #1 is 1.1885

Risk is 34 pips

Reward is 189 minimum pips

Reward : risk ratio is minimum 5.6 to 1

For research purposes only

The entry price of 1.2078 is a high probability reversal value, and appears to be the top of the "b" wave of the downwards a-b-c "B" wave of an upwards Fourth Wave. Alternatively, it could be the top of the first upwards "A" Wave of the large upwards corrective Fourth Wave.

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Previous update:

USD/CHF update for Monday December 11 at 8:00 ET

Since the low Friday morning after the NFP data release of 1.1882 USD/CHF has risen 214 pips to a high of 1.2096 and then bounced down 67 pips to 1.2029. It is likely to continue with another downwards pulse of the downwards corrective wave and then finish its upwards Wave A of Wave 4.

USD/CHF is currently trading at 1.2080. This is at the top of mini wave b of a downwards zigzag wave 4 aiming for about 1.2010 - 1.2000. From the bottom of this wave 4 it should reverse and continue its ascent in the fifth wave of the larger Wave A of Wave 4 targeting about 1.2100. After this should come a fall of about 100 pips in Wave B of Wave 4 to about 1.2000, followed by a rise in Wave C of Wave 4 to about 1.2150, followed by a Wave 5 fall to about 1.1800 - 1.1830 - the bottom of a large downwards trend.

Thursday December 14 at 4:30 ET

Re-enter Trade Experiment #283 Sell GBP/CHF at 2.3760

As predicted, GBP/CHF rose to 2.3760, which is a preferred entry point for our short trade.

Adjust the stop to 2.3804

Risk is now reduced to 56 pips instead of 75 pips

The targets stay the same as before.

Reward #1 is 298 minimum pips
Reward #2 is 448 minimum pips

Reward : risk ratio is now minimum 5.3/8.0 to 1

Confidence level : much better

For research purposes only.
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Previous trade signal:

December 14 at 00:00 ET

After re-visiting this chart I believe the sensible thing is to exit this Trade Experiment #283 Sell GBP/CHF at 2.3705, and re-enter at 2.3760, which is quite likely to be hit, or raise the height of the stop.
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Previous trade signal:

Wednesday December 13 at 11:00 ET
Trade Experiment #283 Sell GBP/CHF at 2.3715
Stop is 2.3778
Target #1 is 2.3450
Target #2 is 2.3300
Risk is 75 pips
Reward #1 is 253 minimum pips
Reward #2 is 403 minimum pips
Reward : risk ratio is minimum 3.4/5.4 to 1
For research purposes only.

Confidence level : medium

We are trying to trade a large WAVE 3 down. The wave count is sketchy though, and the stop has to be large. This is the kind of configuration that often turns out to be a Wave 4 down, so we will keep an eye on this carefully. If it goes up another 75 pips to our stop or close to our stop, it will be a much better short trade.

Thursday December 14 at 5:15 ET

As predicted, USD/CAD fell to 1.1545 and then shot up to 1.1577. It may ascend one more time to set a new high at 1.1580 or so.

Trade Experiment #279A Sell USD/CAD at 1.1578
Stop is 1.1611
Target #1 is 1.1300
Risk is 38 pips
Reward is 273 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 7.2 to 1

For research purposes only.

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Previous comments:

USD/CAD may not be quite ready to decline <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> Quote:
<table border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td class="alt2" style="border: 1px inset ;"> Originally Posted by starfire
Well done Itme with the USD/CAD pair as well. I gather this should now have topped Wave 5 of 5, with expected big move down now?
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
Yes, starfire, as my post number 2226 stated, we expected a turnaround of USD/CAD at 1.1570, and it rose to 1.1572 and appears to be reversing. But only time will tell whether this is indeed the ultimate top of this trend.

I just checked the chart, and see only 1-2-3 of wave 5 up. So I predict a fall to around 1.1547 in wave 4 and then a rise to a new high of 1.1580 to 1.1600 at the top of wave 5 of Wave 5 - the ultimate high of this trend.

A rise to 1.1630 is also very likely. The higher the price where one enters, the less likelihood of hitting one's stop, and the larger the reward. But the longer one waits, the greater the likelihood of missing the entry opportunity.

By studying Elliott Wave patterns, one may ofter recognise the characteristic completion pattern, right down to the smallest order of wave. The stop should be placed above 1.1650. I suggest 1.1654.

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Update for USD/CAD for Tuesday December 12 at 16:00 ET

The wave count at entry time for Trade Experiment #279 Sell USD/CAD at 1.1500 was credible, but when USD/CAD fell and then rose to a new high, the wave count was invalidated. When it fell and rose one more time to form a typical extended wave 3 crown pattern, then it was a cinch that there would be a corrective downwards wave 4 in an a-b-c pattern, followed by another wave up - wave 5.

Furthermore, we had not yet reached the larger timeframe high probability reversal target at about 1.1575. This should have been taken as a sign that we were at the top of wave 3, not wave 5.

This retracement of wave 4 followed by another impulse wave is exactly what happened. The obvious response would have been to exit the short trade at the bottom of wave 4 at 1.1444 (or the second exit opportunity at 1.1453) for an approximately 50 pips profit. We meant to post this at the time, but somehow neglected to.

The upwards Wave 5 has started, and lifted the price to 1.1555 in the first and third impulse waves. The current price of 1.1518 is near to the bottom of the wave 4. The anticipated top of this larger Wave 5 is about 1.1570.

We should theoretically have held on to our previous USD/CAD long position until this ultimate high was reached.

There will be a good low risk /high reward trade opportunity to sell USD/CAD at the top of Wave 5 at about 1.1570.

p.s.- the latest high of USD/CAD is 1.1555, and the pattern looks good for rising to a top at 1.1570.

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Previous trade signals:

Thursday December 7 at 7:45 ET

Trade Experiment #279 Sell USD/CAD at 1.1500
Stop is 1.1537
Target #1 is 1.1300
Risk is 41 pips
Reward is 196 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 4.8 to 1
For research purposes only.

My current wave hypthesis is that USD/CAD has risen in a large A-B-C and then descended in a downwards Wave 1 and then just finished rising in an upwards Wave 2. Now we are trading the first part of a downwards Wave 3. I have changed my mind since I stated this yesterday:

December 7 at 19:30 ET:

Looking at USD/CAD, I see it rising a little more, to 1.1490 to 1.1508, followed by a fall to about 1.1300 in a flat corrective Wave 4 - C.

On November 24 I offered a different wave count:

" We are trading what we believe is the fifth wave (which is a 1-2-3-4-5 ) of an upwards Wave 5."

Obviously, I don't have a definite idea of the larger wave count, as I haven't taken the time to sit down and contemplate it deeply. It takes me several hours usually to come up with a solid theory of the wave count. But it is still possible to make succcessful trade predictions without being certain about the correct wave count on all orders.

USD/JPY update for Thursday December 14 at 6:00 ET

USD/JPY had risen slightly since our last update two days ago, and our current upwards target for this 300 pip uptrend is 117.76, at which point a short trade will be possible.
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USD/JPY update for Tuesday December 12 at 15:00 ET

USD/JPY had been in a 50 pip holding pattern for the last day, thus facilitating the strong rise of GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY as the three European currencies rise. USD/JPY earlier rose while the European currencies rose, an out of phase move, causing the rapid and long upwards trend in the JPY crosses.

The upwards target of the current USD/JPY trend is about 117.35, after which a downwards trend is expected. The concurrent fall of the USD/JPY and European majors will create a good short opportunity in the JPY cross currency pairs.

p.s. - Our updated reversal point for this uptrend is at 117.60. Good news today for the USD, December 13, has delayed the reversal and put it at a higher price.

Itme

the gbp/usd is currently at 1.9642 do you not for see any reversal up to 1.9730 or above again?

System implementation error in USD/CHF short trade

We did our analysis incorrectly prior to our short USD/CHF short trade. The most likely reversal value is 1.2111, which was just hit. We entered 30 pips too low. The fact that our analysis of USD/JPY and USD/CAD indicated we were some distance from the endpoints should have been a clue that something was wrong with our USD/CHF analysis.

I just did a more thorough analysis, and found that the likely reversal point for this trend is 1.2125 - a very strong likelihood of meeting this point and reversing at about this value is indicated by our system.

p.s. - USD/CHF just rose very quickly to 1.2128, and looks like it is capable of rising even higher in a fifth wave after a short correction.

Thursday December 14 at 6:15 ET

Trade Experiment #285A Sell USD/CHF at 1.2125
Stop is 1.2156
Target #1 is 1.1885
Risk is 35 pips
Reward is 236 minimum pips
Reward : risk ratio is minimum 6.7 to 1

For research purposes only

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Thursday December 14 at 4:15 ET

Trade Experiment #285 Sell USD/CHF at 1.2078
Stop is 1.2106
Target #1 is 1.1885
Risk is 34 pips
Reward is 189 minimum pips
Reward : risk ratio is minimum 5.6 to 1

For research purposes only

The entry price of 1.2078 is a high probability reversal value, and appears to be the top of the "b" wave of the downwards a-b-c "B" wave of an upwards Fourth Wave. Alternatively, it could be the top of the first upwards "A" Wave of the large upwards corrective Fourth Wave.

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Previous update:

USD/CHF update for Monday December 11 at 8:00 ET

Since the low Friday morning after the NFP data release of 1.1882 USD/CHF has risen 214 pips to a high of 1.2096 and then bounced down 67 pips to 1.2029. It is likely to continue with another downwards pulse of the downwards corrective wave and then finish its upwards Wave A of Wave 4.

USD/CHF is currently trading at 1.2080. This is at the top of mini wave b of a downwards zigzag wave 4 aiming for about 1.2010 - 1.2000. From the bottom of this wave 4 it should reverse and continue its ascent in the fifth wave of the larger Wave A of Wave 4 targeting about 1.2100. After this should come a fall of about 100 pips in Wave B of Wave 4 to about 1.2000, followed by a rise in Wave C of Wave 4 to about 1.2150, followed by a Wave 5 fall to about 1.1800 - 1.1830 - the bottom of a large downwards trend.

[quote=itme]Thursday December 14 at 4:30 ET

Re-enter Trade Experiment #283 Sell GBP/CHF at 2.3760

As predicted, GBP/CHF rose to 2.3760, which is a preferred entry point for our short trade.

Adjust the stop to 2.3804

Risk is now reduced to 56 pips instead of 75 pips

The targets stay the same as before.

Reward #1 is 298 minimum pips
Reward #2 is 448 minimum pips

Reward : risk ratio is now minimum 5.3/8.0 to 1

Confidence level : much better

For research purposes only.
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Dear itme
you don't know how much I admire your work and it's so helpfull for me
but plz will you look to this trade again >>>> I don't know why I see the end of this wave will be 2.3851

You are right, DragonSlayer, I think that GBP/CHF has the chance to rise to 2.3850. It may correct downwards now that it has hit 2.3800, so anyone who sold prematurely should consider exiting at the bottom of the wave 4 correction, and sell again at the top of wave 5 around 2.3850 or so.

This announcement coincided in time with the strong rise in USD/CHF. The reduction in the predicted inflation may be the cause of this fast 100 pip move which caused difficulties with our USD/CHF and GBP/CHF short trades.

Today 03:30am
*(SZ) SNB RAISES 3-MONTH LIBOR TARGET RATE BY 25BP TO 2.00%, AS EXPECTED

- Sees 2006 GDP at almost 3.0%, unchanged
- Sees 2007 GDP at 2.0% v 1.8% prior forecast
- Sees 2007 inflation at 0.4% v 1.1% prior forecast
- Sees 2008 inflation at 0.9% v 1.6% prior
- Sees gradual rate normalization if economy continues to grow as forecasted

AUD/CAD came two pips short of our original target of .9100 for Re-enter Trade Experiment #278 Buy AUD/CAD at market price of .8985. The target was somewhat approximate when the trade was entered, and should have been adjusted at the time near to the approach of the target. We would have advised exit at .9097 according to our targetting system nearer to the time that the top was reached.

The entry on this trade was very high precision, giving a risk of only 19 pips, and a reward of 103 pips, making the reward / risk ratio of 5.4

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Previous trade signals:

Monday December 11 at 9:00 ET

We recommended a temporary exit of this trade at .9087 for a wave 4 correction of the Third Wave up. The top was .9088, only 1 pip higher than our estimated top. We estimated a bottom of the a-b-c wave 4 at .9060. The bottom of wave 4 was at .9041, after an a-b-c pattern. This would have been the appropriate re-entry price. The price then rose to a high probability reversal value at the top of Wave 3 at the price of .9102 - a rise of 59 pips.

Since then the price fell 114 pips in Wave A of Wave 4 to a low of .8978. It is now due to rise in Wave B of Wave 4 to as high as .9100, then fall again in Wave C of Wave 4 to the .8950 area.

Then it will rise in Wave 5 to about .9200.

Re-enter Trade Experiment #278 Buy AUD/CAD at market price of .8985

Stop is .8975

Target is .9100

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Previous trade signals:

Temporarily exit AUD/CAD long trade at .9087
Thursday December 7 at 7:45 ET

RE: Trade Experiment #278 Buy AUD/CAD at .8966

Temporarily exit AUD/CAD long trade at .9087 to lock in 112 pips of profit and re-enter at the bottom of a medium sized wave 4 correction forming an A-B-C pattern. (The previous potential exit / re-entry related to a smaller order wave 4 correction.)

We estimate that the bottom of the corrective wave will be at about .9060
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Previous trade experiments:

Possible temporary exit point for Trade Experiment #278 Buy AUD/CAD at .8966 <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1">The price of .9075 was reached just now, which appears to be the top of wave 3, so there will be a wave 4 correction now. However, it may not be very large in this case, so we will leave it to the discretion of the trader to decide whether to risk losing profit in order to enhance profitability of this trade by exiting and re-entering at a lower price.
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Wednesday December 6 at 8:00 ET

A fresh look at AUD/CAD indicates that we have recently completed a corrective wave down, at the low of .8942, which would have been the correct entry point for a long trade to the ultimate top of this trend at about .9200. However, we can try to enter at the bottom of the small wave 2.
Trade Experiment #278 Buy AUD/CAD at .8966
Stop is .8929
Target is .9200
Risk is 43 pips
Reward is 225 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 5.2 to 1
For research purposes only.

The price should now rise to complete the long upwards trend at about .9200.

p.s. - the entry price of .8966 was just met at 8:40 ET December 6

Interim high is 117.70, just 5 or 6 pips off of our planned entry price

Last update:

USD/JPY update for Thursday December 14 at 6:00 ET

USD/JPY had risen slightly since our last update two days ago, and our current upwards target for this 300 pip uptrend is 117.76, at which point a short trade will be possible.

do you think the eur/cad has started an a wave down? or do you think it could still hit the previously thought .5350 area?

Thursday December 14 at 10:00 ET

Trade Experiment #286 Sell USD/JPY at 117.73

Stop is 118.06

Target is 114.90

Risk is 37 pips

Reward is 279 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 7.5 to 1

For research purposes only.

p.s. - USD/JPY rose to 117.86 and formed a far better formed 5 wave pattern on the final micro-wave up

p.p.s. - The central bank in Japan is quite possibly supporting the USD against the JPY, which might be causing some variations in the price patterns from the norm. Also, some JPY positive data release later today caused another wave up to 118.10, causing the need for a small adjustment in the stop. If the news have been negative instead of positive, this original trade formula would have worked fine.

USD/CAD appears to have one more upwards pulse required, followed by a strong downwards trend. EUR/USD is going down one more time, possibly quite a bit, and then up a long way. But it may have to finish wave "c" (upwards) of wave "B" (upwards) first. So how this plays out for EUR/CAD has many possibilities, due to variations in timing and proportion.

Looking at EUR/CAD, my assessment hasn't changed. It seems to be due to rise to 1.5370 and then reverse.

Thursday December 14 at 10:30 ET

Trade Experiment #287 Buy GBP/USD at 1.9580

Stop is 1.9548

Target is 1.9750

Risk is 37 pips

Reward is 185 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 5.0 to 1

For research purposes only.

Thursday December 14 at 6:15 ET

Trade Experiment #285B Sell USD/CHF at 1.2158

Stop is 1.2205

Target #1 is 1.1885

Risk is 52 pips

Reward is 268 minimum pips

Reward : risk ratio is minimum 5.2 to 1

For research purposes only

Note: A recent influential data release (see post #2251 above -Fundamental cause of strong USD/CHF rise ) caused a price increase in USD/CHF greater than our non-fundamental factor compensated strictly technical system predicted.

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Previous comments and signals:

System implementation error in USD/CHF short trade

We did our analysis incorrectly prior to our short USD/CHF short trade. The shorter term most likely reversal value is 1.2111, which was just hit. We entered 30 pips too low. The fact that our analysis of USD/JPY and USD/CAD indicated we were some distance from the endpoints should have been a clue that something was wrong with our USD/CHF analysis.

I just did a more thorough analysis, incorporating longer timeframes, and found that the likely reversal point for this trend is 1.2125 - a very strong likelihood of meeting this point and reversing at about this value is indicated by our system.

p.s. - USD/CHF just rose very quickly to 1.2128, and looks like it is capable of rising even higher in a fifth wave after a short correction. (this turned out to be true). This is a case where wave pattern confirmation would have cancelled the following trade signal, because the wave pattern did not indicate a viable reversal pattern, even though a probable reversal price had been reached.

Thursday December 14 at 6:15 ET

Trade Experiment #285A Sell USD/CHF at 1.2125
Stop is 1.2156
Target #1 is 1.1885
Risk is 35 pips
Reward is 236 minimum pips
Reward : risk ratio is minimum 6.7 to 1

For research purposes only

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Thursday December 14 at 4:15 ET

Trade Experiment #285 Sell USD/CHF at 1.2078
Stop is 1.2106
Target #1 is 1.1885
Risk is 34 pips
Reward is 189 minimum pips
Reward : risk ratio is minimum 5.6 to 1

For research purposes only

The entry price of 1.2078 is a high probability reversal value, and appears to be the top of the "b" wave of the downwards a-b-c "B" wave of an upwards Fourth Wave. Alternatively, it could be the top of the first upwards "A" Wave of the large upwards corrective Fourth Wave.

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Previous update:

USD/CHF update for Monday December 11 at 8:00 ET

Since the low Friday morning after the NFP data release of 1.1882 USD/CHF has risen 214 pips to a high of 1.2096 and then bounced down 67 pips to 1.2029. It is likely to continue with another downwards pulse of the downwards corrective wave and then finish its upwards Wave A of Wave 4.

USD/CHF is currently trading at 1.2080. This is at the top of mini wave b of a downwards zigzag wave 4 aiming for about 1.2010 - 1.2000. From the bottom of this wave 4 it should reverse and continue its ascent in the fifth wave of the larger Wave A of Wave 4 targeting about 1.2100. After this should come a fall of about 100 pips in Wave B of Wave 4 to about 1.2000, followed by a rise in Wave C of Wave 4 to about 1.2150, followed by a Wave 5 fall to about 1.1800 - 1.1830 - the bottom of a large downwards trend.
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hi itme, say could you give us a chart picture with your wavenumbers from the currency pair GBP/USD. would be really kind of you caus i would like to see if my counting is right.

thanks

<table class="tborder" style="margin-top: 12px;" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><thead><tr><td class="alt1"> 6:50pm </td> <td class="alt1" align="center">JPY</td> <td class="alt1">Tankan Lg. Manufacturers Index q/q</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">26</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">24</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_3283" style="" align="center">
</td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_3283" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Investica Analysis</legend>

Only a very strong report would provoke a BOJ tightening

</fieldset> <fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

Measures the general business conditions of large manufacturers. The index is derived from a survey that asks respondents to rate subjects such as general business conditions, supply and demand conditions for products and inventories, prices, sales, and employment conditions. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. The Tankan is released four times per year and is one of the nation's most respected gauges of economic welfare because manufacturers play a vital role in the large export industry. Traders pay special attention to the Tankan survey because it's one of the few growth indicators that is produced directly by the Bank of Japan.

</fieldset>

</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt1"> 6:50pm </td> <td class="alt1" align="center">JPY</td> <td class="alt1">Tankan Lg. Non-Manufacturers Index q/q</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">21</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">20</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_3284" style="" align="center">
</td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_3284" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

Measures the general business conditions of large service providers. The index is derived from a survey that asks respondents to rate subjects such as general business conditions, supply and demand conditions, prices, sales, and employment conditions. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. Japan's manufacturing sector is driven mainly by exports, so the services sector gives a better indication of conditions in the domestic economy. Service providers also employ about half of the nation's workers, so traders follow this survey as a leading indicator of employement.

</fieldset>

</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt1"> 6:50pm </td> <td class="alt1" align="center">JPY</td> <td class="alt1">Tertiary Industry Activity Index m/m</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">1.8

%</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">-1.3%





<table class="tborder" style="margin-top: 12px;" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><thead><tr><td class="alt1"> 6:50pm </td> <td class="alt1" align="center">JPY</td> <td class="alt1">Tankan Lg. Manufacturers Index q/q</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">25</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">26</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">24</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_3283" style="" align="center">
</td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_3283" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Investica Analysis</legend>

Only a very strong report would provoke a BOJ tightening

</fieldset> <fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

Measures the general business conditions of large manufacturers. The index is derived from a survey that asks respondents to rate subjects such as general business conditions, supply and demand conditions for products and inventories, prices, sales, and employment conditions. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. The Tankan is released four times per year and is one of the nation's most respected gauges of economic welfare because manufacturers play a vital role in the large export industry. Traders pay special attention to the Tankan survey because it's one of the few growth indicators that is produced directly by the Bank of Japan.

</fieldset>

</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt1"> 6:50pm </td> <td class="alt1" align="center">JPY</td> <td class="alt1">Tankan Lg. Non-Manufacturers Index q/q</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">22</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">21</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">20</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_3284" style="" align="center">
</td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_3284" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

Measures the general business conditions of large service providers. The index is derived from a survey that asks respondents to rate subjects such as general business conditions, supply and demand conditions, prices, sales, and employment conditions. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. Japan's manufacturing sector is driven mainly by exports, so the services sector gives a better indication of conditions in the domestic economy. Service providers also employ about half of the nation's workers, so traders follow this survey as a leading indicator of employement.

</fieldset>

</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt1"> 6:50pm </td> <td class="alt1" align="center">JPY</td> <td class="alt1">Tertiary Industry Activity Index m/m</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">2.1%</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">1.8%</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">-1.3%</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_3285" style="" align="center">
</td></tr></thead></table>
</td></tr></thead></table>

so now, UJ is good for long? getting some pips?

This could be a fifth wave up on the 1 minute USD/JPY chart. The Elliott Wave pattern is ambiguous as far as I'm concerned. 117.90 looks like a possible high based on the tick chart.

Example:

NZD had some good news today, but the market reacted the opposite of what one would expect, instead it reacted according to our theory and went down 70 pips. Trading the news is a very difficult art.