Daily GBP/JPY analysis

Guppy Update 1

My analysis has not changed as posted 3 weeks ago. The chart is still in play and I am waiting for price to touch the 238 region. This will be valid so long as 227 holds (which is the recent registered low). Eventual target is the 221 region whether that occurs by touching 238 or breaking 227. I am still favouring a touch in the 238 region to gather more bears as the resistance at 235 was not strong enough to break the support at 227.

Original charts attached as posted 3 weeks earlier - these are short term charts so normally take days/weeks to complete. Links are here

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...87#post1560987
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...76#post1565976

And the charts

Guppy Update 2

So in the mean time, we have been ranging between the recent high of 235 and the recent low of 227 as shown in the purple shaded area. Neither the bulls or bears are currently strong enough to force a break-out.

The coming FOMC meeting (on Tuesday) could change all that. I believe that we need to go up first before we can come down. The descending trendline is now crossing with the ascending one so that could be another indication that longs are good.

So in words again, my target is 238 so long as 227 holds with an eventual target of 221. Until then I will be playing the intraday charts.

Z

PS. I have been following this pair (GBP/JPY) for a few months only so I am not entirely sure how FOMC will affect it. I started currency trading on the Euro (EUR/USD) and then moved to cable (GBP/USD), which both have the USD component so are more sensitive to this type of event.

Good Morning,

Stopped out of my long yesterday just after the open for +50, still in my short, Must admit I expected it to be the other way around.

Have just added to my short at 229.84 on a rejection of the underside of the 4h declining trend line (calculated on the close) with a tight stop just in case I am wrong.

An ideal entry this morning was around 231.40 shortly after the frankfurt open (another trend line rejection). I had an errand to run so I missed it.

So its all looking decidedly bearish.

Here´s an update from my post 2 weeks ago....

"Off the Weekly Chart, the 50% fibo support is around 216.00 and the 61.8% around 207.50

First price must break support at the weekly lows around 219 / 220 - i.e the W3 low.

A failure to make new lows under the W3 low will tell us that this wave count is not correct and that some form of ABC correction is in progress."

Actually, it would require a close above the W1 low (237.50) to negate the current count.

Basically, no change and as others have already pointed out, we are currently in a confused area with no clear Daily signals and price needs to make a clear break out of the 227.50 to 235.50 channel to confirm the next move.

I do feel that given the current weakness of Cable due to the uncertainties in the banking sector, there is more potential for a test of the W3 low than a break above the W1 low.

Meanwhile, I´m quite happy using my shorter TFs to take pips out of the intra day moves.

PS I´m having trouble uploading my chart and will have to post it later.

Finally, from my back-up pc....

Looks like the bottom support line held and a bullish wedge in the picture (yellow shaded area) is holding nicely so perhaps we may see this long await rise after all? Tomorrow could be the day this beast temporarily turns bullish.

The wedge formation once again proved its worth. Resistance is currently sitting at 231.50 and that will be a nice place to long should it break. I don't expect much to happen until FOMC though.

Some great fairly predictable moves today with great initial set ups to long from the Frankfurt/London open.

My first TP was at the 50%, bought more at the 38% next TP 233.90 hopefully.

See Zorans chart above for perfect low risk buys!!

EDIT: well that was another quick +100, sure wish we had news like this every day!

I am staying long here this move has strong momentum and could just possibly break out above the 235.50 level or at least reach it.

Whatever happens it has been a good day.

Chart

it appears 230.50 could be the next stop possibly 229.00 after a bounce no position as of yet

current price 232.05

Price never made it anywhere near 235.50 which was a shame, but that was just hope on my part. But a good trade all the same, eventually had my trailing stop taken out.

Didn't have time to post yesterday and although it is after the fact there was a great set up to sell at around 233.20, which I took, still short on this trade. I can post a chart if anyone wants to see it.

Sold again this morning at around 0750 uk time with an entry at 231.85 a rejection of a trend line on the 5m chart. Not a perfect setup, worth the risk I hope. Stop just above 232.

Battle going on here and could go either way, (news at 0930, 0945 and Bernanke at 1500) stalling things maybe) personally I think it should go to at least 231 and then make its mind up there, so that is my initial target.

After that?

Time will tell!!

If it breaks 231 and support at 230.80 we could see a reasonable move south.

Edit: Took a loss of -10 on my last trade!! Oh well
Closed my short from yesterday at 232.01 +119

Just taken a long here from the top of the opening range 232.01

Good low risk trade in my book with a tight stop.

Edit: stopped +1

Short 231.40

I see no relation between calculation and funds balancing. However, I truly believe in full hedging, not partial.

Are these two related?

Anyway, what happened to this thread? It used to be alive and well.

Two many GBP/JPY threads I guess

I keep posting just to try and keep it alive lol, come on people lets have some analysis.

At least you don't have to read 2000 pages to catch up here .

LOL - how right you are!

I´m having a busy week elsewhere, so little time to post.

With cable also horizontal around the 2.0100 level, its up to UJ to decide if its going to continue on down - currently just below its pivot of 114.93.

Thats holding GJ in the 231.00 - 230.50 range, with reasonable support at the 30.50 level. TWT