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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #27,401
  • Sep 16, 2007 4:49pm Sep 16, 2007 4:49pm
Ok looks like some shorts are starting to cover now, i'm getting 231.17.
"Only when the tide goes out will we know who is swimming naked."
  • #27,402
  • Sep 16, 2007 4:54pm Sep 16, 2007 4:54pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Ok from what i understand, and i'm not realy into fundimental stuff.

Northern rock was still taking on new mortages when there lenders stopped lending, therefore they went to another bank for the money BOE. coupled with that was the fact that there banks had raised there lending rate, this meant that they didn't have the spare cash flow to meet the new mortage demand and still pay there depts each month, unlike other banks they failed to increase there lending rates early enough to cover the expected rise, they expected to simply keep adding new customers to meet the costs.

no one said anything when Barclays borrowed from the BOE.

Also add to this the fack that other banks are trying to buy out NR, i feel this whole situation has been guided to meet someone elses agenda.

Note note sure if true but apparently nation bank of australia are in the running for a take over - dodgie Ozzies, even cheat at cricket LOL.
  • #27,403
  • Sep 16, 2007 4:58pm Sep 16, 2007 4:58pm
FXCM gap

Closed Friday 231.30 . . . Open Sunday 231.01
  • #27,404
  • Sep 16, 2007 4:59pm Sep 16, 2007 4:59pm
Quoting auslanco
(UK) UK CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER DARLING: REITERATES THAT NORTHERN ROCK IS SOLVENT; UK ECONOMY IS FUNDAMENTALLY STRONG
- The UK gov't debt is infinitely better than in the 1990
This news may make G/J go up a little bit (or retrace) after that G/J may continue to drop.
  • #27,405
  • Sep 16, 2007 5:09pm Sep 16, 2007 5:09pm
Quoting SailingAway
FXCM gap

Closed Friday 231.30 . . . Open Sunday 231.01

not too big, mine opened with 12 pips gap, sucks...
  • #27,406
  • Sep 16, 2007 5:12pm Sep 16, 2007 5:12pm
This last retrace made it as far as the 1H 5SMA before heading south again.

With CMS the closing price on Friday was 231.31, and it opened at 231.19 today.

Go bears! http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
  • #27,407
  • Edited 5:17pm Sep 16, 2007 5:14pm | Edited 5:17pm
guys who are long, have a look and take the trade
60 ema has crossed down the 200 ema on 1 min, 5 min , 15 min, and 30 mins charts, this is a very strong bearish signal, so take trades at ur discretion
shorts can have SL 20 pips above the 200 EMA, which is a very strong resistance level
have a look at jpy strength meter, shows very strong trend
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gjpy.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #27,408
  • Sep 16, 2007 5:16pm Sep 16, 2007 5:16pm
Looks like it may take a little longer for the gap to fill or it may not at all. Playing the gap is a discretionary trade and does not ALWAYS fill, although it does tend to quite a bit.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #27,409
  • Sep 16, 2007 5:17pm Sep 16, 2007 5:17pm
Quoting auslanco
the monster bearish momentum
Hello Aus.

My momentum indicator on the 4 hour and daily don't look anything like yours. I'm set to smoothing 10. Searched all over. What is the end time of your daily and 4 hour charts? Are you using the momentum-zl?

Thanks.
  • #27,410
  • Sep 16, 2007 5:18pm Sep 16, 2007 5:18pm
Quoting santoso
This news may make G/J go up a little bit (or retrace) after that G/J may continue to drop.

I dont expect any explosive moves today..price could bounce off the 230.50 area and range until US news.
  • #27,411
  • Edited 5:37pm Sep 16, 2007 5:22pm | Edited 5:37pm
Quoting Gandolf
Hello Aus.

My momentum indicator on the 4 hour and daily don't look anything like yours. I'm set to smoothing 10. Searched all over. What is the end time of your daily and 4 hour charts? Are you using the momentum-zl?

Thanks.
1700 EST..

The momentum angle could appear differently due to chart scaling as well.
  • #27,412
  • Sep 16, 2007 5:27pm Sep 16, 2007 5:27pm
Quoting imransait
guys who are long, have a look and take the trade
60 ema has crossed down the 200 ema on 1 min, 5 min , 15 min, and 30 mins charts, this is a very strong bearish signal, so take trades at ur discretion
shorts can have SL 20 pips above the 200 EMA, which is a very strong resistance level
have a look at jpy strength meter, shows very strong trend
lol so much for the strong resistance....it'll go up for now and fall later on...don't forget...Japan is on holiday so it'll be weak
  • #27,413
  • Sep 16, 2007 5:36pm Sep 16, 2007 5:36pm
Quoting MoForce
lol so much for the strong resistance....it'll go up for now and fall later on...don't forget...Japan is on holiday so it'll be weak
Are you saying this because you got long postions open or any technical reasons behind it, apart from the resistance which Zoran pointed out?
  • #27,414
  • Sep 16, 2007 5:44pm Sep 16, 2007 5:44pm
TTN ANALYSIS - MORE DOWNSIDE THAN UPSIDE FOR STOCKS THIS WEEK; CARRY TRADES TO REVERSE AGAIN?
- We've seen an anticipatory stocks rally ahead of the FOMC, raising the possibility that a rate cut will provide limited upside for stocks. On the other hand, if the Fed disappoints we can see some heavy selling of stocks. The USD/JPY has moved from a recent low of 113.38 (on 9/7) to 115.37 (on 9/14), suggesting that some money has gone back into the carry trade. If we had to see a selloff on Wall Street this week, the JPY could benefit once again from a renewed round of risk aversion.
  • #27,415
  • Sep 16, 2007 5:45pm Sep 16, 2007 5:45pm
Quoting auslanco
1700 EST..

The momentum angle could appear differently due to chart scaling as well.
It's not the scaling. Mine's pointed in the opposite direction. The stock MT4 Momentum, Momentum-ZL and Q's momentum all have the same pattern with smoothing set to 10. My broker ends the week at the same time. It must be the data. Disconcerting. Tried another broker. Their data produces your pattern. Ugh.
  • #27,416
  • Sep 16, 2007 5:48pm Sep 16, 2007 5:48pm
Heads up to those living outside the US -

My broker is sending out "Fast market Conditions" warning at 7pm eastern - even though no big news is due - this is because CBS will be broadcasting a interview with Greenspan at 7pm eastern during the tv show "60 minutes". Part of the interview was leaked out on Friday that shows Greensapan scarring the country contridicting the current fed moves. Watch the market carefully during this show.
  • #27,417
  • Sep 16, 2007 5:48pm Sep 16, 2007 5:48pm
Quoting auslanco
Are you saying this because you got long postions open or any technical reasons behind it, apart from the resistance which Zoran pointed out?
Well I went long for multiple reasons....

1) Japan is on holiday and most of the time the countries on holiday get a beating
2) GBP/USD is way oversold and has started retracing which I see going to 2.0117 at the least (I also went long on G/U)
4) G/J is in need of completing retracement up to about 232.10 (61.8%)
5) A rise now would ensure a much bigger fall later in the week
6) U/J is headed towards 117
  • #27,418
  • Sep 16, 2007 5:51pm Sep 16, 2007 5:51pm
Quoting digitizer123
Heads up to those living outside the US -

My broker is sending out "Fast market Conditions" warning at 7pm eastern - even though no big news is due - this is because CBS will be broadcasting a interview with Greenspan at 7pm eastern during the tv show "60 minutes". Part of the interview was leaked out on Friday that shows Greensapan scarring the country contridicting the current fed moves. Watch the market carefully during this show.
(US) FORMER FED CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN: WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF US HOUSE PRICE DECLINES IN DOUBLE DIGITS; US HOUSE PRICE DECLINES TO BE BIGGER THAN MOST PEOPLE EXPECT; FED MUST BE CAREFUL NOT TO CUT RATES TOO AGRESSIVELY - FT
- Risks of inflationary resurgence greater now than when he headed the Fed.
  • #27,419
  • Sep 16, 2007 5:54pm Sep 16, 2007 5:54pm
Quoting imransait
guys who are long, have a look and take the trade
60 ema has crossed down the 200 ema on 1 min, 5 min , 15 min, and 30 mins charts, this is a very strong bearish signal, so take trades at ur discretion
shorts can have SL 20 pips above the 200 EMA, which is a very strong resistance level
have a look at jpy strength meter, shows very strong trend
You have some interesting indicators on yoiur charts, keeps things clean looking. Care to share them?
  • #27,420
  • Sep 16, 2007 5:56pm Sep 16, 2007 5:56pm
Quoting MoForce
Well I went long for multiple reasons....

1) Japan is on holiday and most of the time the countries on holiday get a beating
2) GBP/USD is way oversold and has started retracing which I see going to 2.0117 at the least (I also went long on G/U)
4) G/J is in need of completing retracement up to about 232.10 (61.8%)
5) A rise now would ensure a much bigger fall later in the week
6) U/J is headed towards 117
agreed, GU is OS on most of the TF, and UJ indicators are pointing up..
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