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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #27,321
  • Sep 15, 2007 10:43pm Sep 15, 2007 10:43pm
Great advice as always Aus. I have gotten burned several times when I have kept sell positions because I just knew that the fundamentals were on my side and that the market was going to turn in my direction. And of course the market kept moving up and my negative number kept getting bigger.

I still assume that the market is always about to turn down. Now, however, I only place money on it when the technical indicators agree with my opinion. It is a lot cheaper that way.

It looks like GJ has jumped around a fairly good bit today. That is not normal for a saturday. We could see a lot or premarket activity tomorrow just like last week.

Northern Rock appears to have gone from first hint of trouble to being split apart in about 72 hours. Amazing how fast the upside down money pyramid collapses once the first cracks appear. If another bank collapses, it could be the trigger for a real financial crisis.
  • #27,322
  • Edited 10:58pm Sep 15, 2007 10:45pm | Edited 10:58pm
Here's DOW index prediction by autochartist.com. on 4hr charts for the next week. Please remember I have seen many wrong predictions as well as some spot on one's by these guys.. I'm posting this to have a balance view on this thread
Attached Image
  • #27,323
  • Sep 15, 2007 11:04pm Sep 15, 2007 11:04pm
Quoting auslanco
Here's DOW index prediction by autochartist.com. on 4hr charts for the next week. Please remember I have seen many wrong predictions as well as some spot on one's by these guys.. I'm posting this to have a balance view on this thread
If the dow sets a new record high next week (which is quite possible if the feds do a .5% rate cut), I believe my reaction will be summed up by this line from Ghostbusters.

Quote
Sorry, Venkman. I'm terrified beyond the capacity for rational thought.

The market is really setting up for a crash of epic proportions.
  • #27,324
  • Sep 15, 2007 11:08pm Sep 15, 2007 11:08pm
Hi Aus,

Hopefully this is not directed to my post on the news (perhaps bearish biased). Anyways, I was just bored and carried away by this UK news. I am most of the times following the thread on the sidelines. Unfortunately I have nothing to contribute on chart reading and your strategy. But I am able to setup the strategy and constantly reading common analysis tools suggested here. I really admire and appreciate the effort and contributions by the superstars in this thread, which are very informative.

Hopefully in few months I can fully understand the basics and become consistent + trader I might be able to contribute on the technicals on this thread as well.

Good luck to all this week and happy harvest.


Quoting auslanco
Great analysis by Karmo as always , Thanks buddy.

Every Monday since mid August, almost everyone including myself on this thread is predicting "that" big fall. I will post this analysis only to have a balance view on this thread.

Technical:
According to my strategy.. Daily charts are still very much bullish. 4hr tested the 200SMA once and as myself and lilmoe predicted it bounced back . Now the price is sitting on a deciding level.. Downward break from the current level will confirm a further fall.However to break 219 area daily QQE has to cross down.On the other hand if the price re-test the 200 sma, not only it will break that level, It will also limit any further bearish rallies towards 220 area and the price will be on it's way to 251+.

Fundamental..
Just early last week we heard on bloomberg , the stability of the financial markets and how investors are getting back in to the carry trades. Late last week, there were fresh news on how the UK is gradually falling into this this subprime "hole" and also the political uncertainty in Japan. At the same time hang seng index rose to all time high's, better than expected economic releases from the US and continues pitching's by world central bank leaders that there wont be a market crash like we saw on previous times. I must agree with Markam that things do not look good fundamentally. But when this big fall going to happen .. we don't know.

However I hope every intra-day trader should have a balance view on the market rather than getting married to this bearish mentality.

My strategy is clear and simple..as most of the traders here I'm an intraday trader. I take things as it comes, one trade at a time. I solely depend on my indicators. I have got a sell signal on my 4hr /1hr strategy on Friday with a profit target of 229.16. I'm looking to go short at a suitable price on Monday.
  • #27,325
  • Sep 15, 2007 11:10pm Sep 15, 2007 11:10pm
Markam,
any link for your Saturday quote if you dont mind?

-thanks

Quoting markam
Great advice as always Aus. I have gotten burned several times when I have kept sell positions because I just knew that the fundamentals were on my side and that the market was going to turn in my direction. And of course the market kept moving up and my negative number kept getting bigger.

I still assume that the market is always about to turn down. Now, however, I only place money on it when the technical indicators agree with my opinion. It is a lot cheaper that way.

It looks like GJ has jumped around a fairly good bit today. That is not normal for a saturday. We could see a lot or premarket activity tomorrow just like last week.

Northern Rock appears to have gone from first hint of trouble to being split apart in about 72 hours. Amazing how fast the upside down money pyramid collapses once the first cracks appear. If another bank collapses, it could be the trigger for a real financial crisis.
  • #27,326
  • Sep 15, 2007 11:14pm Sep 15, 2007 11:14pm
Definetely we should trade what our indicators and strategies tell us but if eventhough FED cuts rates I don't think think this will be the final solution to everything. Except this subprime issue I would say they even should raise rates.. I believe then it will bring another problems in the economy in medium term. Therefore I am pretty much short biased but again as you have said we are intraday traders and should trade accordingly.
  • #27,327
  • Sep 15, 2007 11:15pm Sep 15, 2007 11:15pm
Quoting mcduck
Markam,
any link for your Saturday quote if you dont mind?

-thanks
http://money.cnn.com/data/currencies/

They don't indicate if it is a buy or sell price, but it is pretty good for tracking movements on the weekend. It was 20+ pips higher earlier today, but the current price is still higher than fridays close.
  • #27,328
  • Sep 15, 2007 11:22pm Sep 15, 2007 11:22pm
interesting...

at least now it is sitting at the same price (buy) as yahoo: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GBPJPY=X which I usually tracks ends Fridays between 5:45 - 6 PM

thanks man.

Quoting markam
http://money.cnn.com/data/currencies/

They don't indicate if it is a buy or sell price, but it is pretty good for tracking movements on the weekend. It was 20+ pips higher earlier today, but the current price is still higher than fridays close.
  • #27,329
  • Sep 15, 2007 11:22pm Sep 15, 2007 11:22pm
Quoting markam
http://money.cnn.com/data/currencies/

They don't indicate if it is a buy or sell price, but it is pretty good for tracking movements on the weekend. It was 20+ pips higher earlier today, but the current price is still higher than fridays close.
The price hasn't moved since the close. My broker closed at GMT 21:00 and that was the price quoted. Been watching from xe.com but I guess we wil see the real move near to the markets open
  • #27,330
  • Sep 15, 2007 11:26pm Sep 15, 2007 11:26pm
Quoting markam
If the dow sets a new record high next week (which is quite possible if the feds do a .5% rate cut), I believe my reaction will be summed up by this line from Ghostbusters.



The market is really setting up for a crash of epic proportions.
I believe the market is already priced in for.25 % rate cut. I doubt a .5 % rate cut next week. But.. anything is possible with our big brother US.


Some weekend news:
U.S. INFLATION: FORMER FED CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN WARNS THAT IF THE FED IS TO KEEP CPI BETWEEN 1% AND 2% IN COMING YEARS IT COULD BE REQUIRED TO FORCE INTEREST RATES INTO "DOUBLE DIGITS" - WSJ
- However, Greenspan said he fears the Fed will face "populist resistance from Congress, if not from the White House" to its policy of maintaining price stability.



HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE: BARRONS TAKES A LOOK AT HOW STOCKS REACT TO RATE CUTS
- Since 1970, the S&P 500 has risen by an average of 5.5% in the three months after the central bank first cut rates, according to Birinyi Associates.
- Only twice out of nine instances did stocks drop, including an 18% drop three months after the Fed's 2001 easing. The average gain six months later is an even more encouraging 12.3%.
- On this week's expected Fed rate cut: "Given stocks' anticipatory rally, the potential downside from dashed hopes likely will exceed any potential upside from fulfilled expectations."
  • #27,331
  • Sep 15, 2007 11:27pm Sep 15, 2007 11:27pm
Quoting brok
The price hasn't moved since the close. My broker closed at GMT 21:00 and that was the price quoted. Been watching from xe.com but I guess we wil see the real move near to the markets open
Its 19 pips higher than the close price from my broker. The cnn price was something like 231.78 earlier today.
  • #27,332
  • Sep 15, 2007 11:32pm Sep 15, 2007 11:32pm
Quoting auslanco
I believe the market is already priced in for.25 % rate cut. I doubt a .5 % rate cut next week. But.. anything is possible with our big brother US.
I was leaning towards no cut a week or two ago, but I would say a .25 cut is pretty much a given at this point. Any thoughts on europe and england doing a cut to stabilize the currencies?
  • #27,333
  • Sep 15, 2007 11:40pm Sep 15, 2007 11:40pm
Quoting mcduck
Hi Aus,

Hopefully this is not directed to my post on the news
.

Definitely not.. Keep those information coming to this thread. Very much appreciated.

I recieved a PM from one trader , saying how he lost $20,000 when the price rose to 234.75 and he's blaming on this thread for his losses since every one hear expected a big fall last week. My concern is to contribute a balance view so some idiotic traders don't invest blindly.
  • #27,334
  • Sep 15, 2007 11:43pm Sep 15, 2007 11:43pm
Quoting auslanco
Definitely not.. Keep those information coming to this thread. Very much appreciated.

I recieved a PM from one trader , saying how he lost $20,000 when the price rose to 234.75 and he's blaming on this thread for his losses since every one hear expected a big fall last week. My concern is to contribute a balance view so some idiotic traders don't invest blindly.

I'm guessing he didn't have a million dollar account, where that would be an appropriately sized loss.
  • #27,335
  • Sep 15, 2007 11:50pm Sep 15, 2007 11:50pm
Quoting auslanco
Definitely not.. Keep those information coming to this thread. Very much appreciated.

I recieved a PM from one trader , saying how he lost $20,000 when the price rose to 234.75 and he's blaming on this thread for his losses since every one hear expected a big fall last week. My concern is to contribute a balance view so some idiotic traders don't invest blindly.

Honestly I don't think he was following the thread. There were lots of people insisting on the upwards channel and I as recall rite only person insisted on short was Karmo when the breakout happened and he even got profit successfully after closing the short and opening a long.... And I remember people talking about closing the losing short trade at the retracement.
  • #27,336
  • Sep 15, 2007 11:56pm Sep 15, 2007 11:56pm
Quoting markam
I was leaning towards no cut a week or two ago, but I would say a .25 cut is pretty much a given at this point. Any thoughts on europe and england doing a cut to stabilize the currencies?

BoE is as good as Scotland Yard when it comes to covering up their domestic financial issues, I believe there arn't enough concerns to have a rate cut yet.
However form the latest news coming out from Europe , ECB is very concerned about the current crisis.

Here's Merlin's view on US rate cut, which I copied from a 1KT thread.

Quoting merlin

i am one of the few who doesnt think the fed will cut rates. the poor employment report made me second guess that theory, but i came back to my senses.

my argument is based on one thing... the fed has not given the "signal" yet. i made similar comments in wade's story the other day.

after reading bernanke's book "Inflation Targeting" (twice now) i am left with the impression that bernanke does not like to make reactive moves, and that every rate move will be signaled long before the move is made.

these are extraordinary times, so i wouldnt be so surprised to see a cut next week. but i am still leaning toward no cut.
  • #27,337
  • Edited Sep 16, 2007 12:08am Sep 15, 2007 11:56pm | Edited Sep 16, 2007 12:08am
Quoting markam
Now obviously I don't expect 2,000 a week from now. It would require a depression, monetary deflation, 30% unemployment and the collapse of mexico as a functioning country.

I figure it is at least a month away.

My short-term target is the 10,000 area. That will happen quickly as we move further into a recession, and the full extent of the global money crisis becomes apparent. All the current stock market bulls will simultaneously pull their money from the market, and we won't see any more of these silly rallies for a while.
Wow. Dow 2,000? According to the calculation, the current DJI is 13442.52 (DJI = the sum of the prices of all 30 stocks/dow divisor, 1653.67/0.123017848). For the Dow to crash to 2,000, the sum of the prices of all 30 stocks will be 246.04 (2000x0.123017848) and the average price for each of the stock will be $8.20. Barring some catastrophic events like the pebble that crashed into the Yucatan Peninsula and killed all the dinosaurs, I don't think it is likely to happen. Can you imagine $8/share for IBM(currently $115/share)?

Edit: Oops, no pun intended. Just found out your avatar is a dinosaur or a dog having a snack.
  • #27,338
  • Sep 16, 2007 12:01am Sep 16, 2007 12:01am
Quoting brok
Honestly I don't think he was following the thread. There were lots of people insisting on the upwards channel and I as recall rite only person insisted on short was Karmo when the breakout happened and he even got profit successfully after closing the short and opening a long.... And I remember people talking about closing the losing short trade at the retracement.
well.. I guess he's looking for someone or something to blame for his own losses
  • #27,339
  • Sep 16, 2007 12:03am Sep 16, 2007 12:03am
Quoting markam
Its 19 pips higher than the close price from my broker. The cnn price was something like 231.78 earlier today.
i've just checked OANDA, the price is now 231.67...higher than yesterday close @ 231.38...

Tomorrow, there will be fewer traders because of Japanese holiday...there may be more volatility to the down side? br
  • #27,340
  • Sep 16, 2007 12:09am Sep 16, 2007 12:09am
Quoting mrproper
Wow. Dow 2,000? According to the calculation, the current DJI is 13442.52 (DJI = the sum of the prices of all 30 stocks/dow divisor, 1653.67/0.123017848). For the Dow to crash to 2,000, the sum of the prices of all 30 stocks will be 246.04 (2000x0.123017848) and the average price for each of the stock will be $8.20. Barring some catastrophic events like the pebble that crashed into the Yucatan Peninsula and killed all the dinosaurs, I don't think it is likely to happen. Can you imagine $8/share for IBM(currently $115/share)?

Edit: Oops, no pun intended. Just found out your avatar is a dinosaur having a snack.
I am sure that if you told the average investor in 1929 that the stock market was going to fall 85%, he would have thought you were insane. I am also sure that if you had told a japanese investor that the Nikkei was going to fall 80% from 39,000 to 7600, he would have thought you to be insane.


I also think housing prices will fall by at least 50%.

After we get these effects from the collapse of the monetary bubble, we will get the joys of hyperinflation and eventually currency collapse and a non-fiat based dollar.
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