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Do Not Yell At Me For Discussing Fundamentals

  • #21
  • Sep 12, 2007 2:40pm Sep 12, 2007 2:40pm
Quoting cesarnc
I got burned in this market so many times exactly for the reasons I mentioned. You read, read, read, plan, plan, plan, wait, and take the trade. And it goes the other way around because of gossips rumours and all...

Then just trade what you see, not what you think?

And the fact that futures are pricing in things with deadpan certainty will be sweet - to either side.

The chart will reveal all. (just HAD to post that in a FA thread mehehe)

But interesting to see that FA speculation sounds so similiar to TA, just that instead of "if this key s/r gives, then..." turns into "if he says this, but emphasizes that and then someone else reacts accordingly, but doesn't..." ;p


Still prefer seeing chart ticks over press conferences

@Dave I'll be curious to see whether the world takes that "take longer to solve" thing as a signal to start devaluing the USD long term(well, it's already done that for years, but you know what I mean..)...jacko has a scary perspective there even short term (1.45 EURUSD)

Soon I'll be able to buy Atlanta with spare change!
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #22
  • Sep 12, 2007 3:16pm Sep 12, 2007 3:16pm
Don't worry Dave, will not yell at you... Plus if you have a wife she's probably doing the job for us, no need for further aggravation. I am no fan of complex fundamental analysis, but analysts do "set the stage" for short term reactions, and that is part of how I trade. In fact, smjones asked the perfect question: now that everybody is expecting (or talking about) a rate cut, how different is that from a surprise?

Well, I think the initial response to any strong news is always the same - good interest good for dollar, bad interest bad for dollar. But the setting is what determines the ultimate direction(the big pips). It is only when the heavy money realizes that the cut came to aid a particular problem in the economy, and that the rest of America (can you say R-E-T-A-I-L) is doing pretty darn good, that the dollar will strengthen. We are at historical highs and have fallen from them before, my opinion is that the USD is going to be much stronger in a months time than it is now.

That decision day will be interesting for sure. I am staying the hell out on the day, preferrably in a hurricane shelter
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #23
  • Sep 13, 2007 8:32am Sep 13, 2007 8:32am
This is what I meant yesterday here, and it's on the streets already...

How Big a Rate Cut?CNBC senior economic correspondent Steve Liesman has been telling us that it's beginning to look like a half-point rate cut is possible when the Fed meets next Tuesday, up from the quarter-point cut the market had been expecting. More and more traders we talk to say they also see a half-point cut coming to the target fed funds rate.


Kudlow observed last night that the markets are now setting up for a 50-basis-point slice off the 5.25% fed funds rate. "If they cut by 50 basis points, stocks go up and will test the old highs. If it's only 25 points, the market will go down," he said.

Source CNBC
  • #24
  • Sep 13, 2007 8:44am Sep 13, 2007 8:44am
Quoting cesarnc
This is what I meant yesterday here, and it's on the streets already...

How Big a Rate Cut?CNBC senior economic correspondent Steve Liesman has been telling us that it's beginning to look like a half-point rate cut is possible when the Fed meets next Tuesday, up from the quarter-point cut the market had been expecting. More and more traders we talk to say they also see a half-point cut coming to the target fed funds rate.


Kudlow observed last night that the markets are now setting up for a 50-basis-point slice off the 5.25% fed funds rate. "If they cut by 50 basis points, stocks go up and will test the old highs. If it's only 25 points, the market will go down," he said.

Source CNBC
Steve Liesman - Journalism Major from Columbia with no trading experience - hmmm, just not seeing the value of his analysis.

Sorry guys/gals - been in this biz too long, I get a bit jaded at times with the press/media.
  • #25
  • Sep 13, 2007 9:13am Sep 13, 2007 9:13am
Quoting Dave Floyd
Steve Liesman - Journalism Major from Columbia with no trading experience - hmmm, just not seeing the value of his analysis.

Sorry guys/gals - been in this biz too long, I get a bit jaded at times with the press/media.




Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #26
  • Sep 13, 2007 9:15am Sep 13, 2007 9:15am
Quoting Dave Floyd
Steve Liesman - Journalism Major from Columbia with no trading experience - hmmm, just not seeing the value of his analysis.

Sorry guys/gals - been in this biz too long, I get a bit jaded at times with the press/media.
You don't have to go to college to read the fed funds futures chart.
  • #27
  • Sep 13, 2007 9:22am Sep 13, 2007 9:22am
My post was to "illustrate" how is the market's sentiment ahead of Fed. Not to promote this guy as a MAJOR analysts whose words come directly from God...

And the same view is spread across all major newswires. Not ONE from some guy whose words come directly from God. It is just how the market is looking at Tuesday....

Gees... So many times one have to post the explaination of the post he posted before...
  • #28
  • Sep 13, 2007 10:05am Sep 13, 2007 10:05am
Looks like real bubble behaviour. Might be a good idea to keep the powder dry until the actual rate announcement; if it's anything less then half a point there could be some good money to be made.....
  • #29
  • Sep 13, 2007 10:20am Sep 13, 2007 10:20am
Quoting cesarnc
My post was to "illustrate" how is the market's sentiment ahead of Fed. Not to promote this guy as a MAJOR analysts whose words come directly from God...

And the same view is spread across all major newswires. Not ONE from some guy whose words come directly from God. It is just how the market is looking at Tuesday....

Gees... So many times one have to post the explaination of the post he posted before...
Cesarnc - I was not making a jab at you by any stretch - I just have this uncontrollable reflex (been to see the doc about it) that forces me to comment on Steve Liesman whenever I see or hear him.
  • #30
  • Sep 13, 2007 11:28am Sep 13, 2007 11:28am
Quoting Dave Floyd
Cesarnc - I was not making a jab at you by any stretch - I just have this uncontrollable reflex (been to see the doc about it) that forces me to comment on Steve Liesman whenever I see or hear him.
I know.. I feel the same about Bernanke
  • #31
  • Sep 14, 2007 7:16pm Sep 14, 2007 7:16pm
CBOT fed funds futures still pricing in 100% probability 25 pbs cut and now a 58% probability of a further 25 pbs cut.

Meanwhile one way to monitor inflation is watch what commodities are doing and it don't look good, unless you are long .
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  • #32
  • Sep 15, 2007 12:59am Sep 15, 2007 12:59am
Quoting Dave Floyd
Steve Liesman - Journalism Major from Columbia with no trading experience - hmmm, just not seeing the value of his analysis.
ouch! you better hope he never reads this LOLOL

i actually dont mind the never-traded-analysts...because the ones who have traded are all jaded! something about trading brings out the skeptic in us
Relax and be happy.
  • #33
  • Sep 15, 2007 1:03am Sep 15, 2007 1:03am
Quoting merlin
something about trading brings out the skeptic in us
I owe everything I ever did right to skepticism, then firm determination. The skeptic in you is your best friend, don't you think?
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #34
  • Sep 15, 2007 1:04am Sep 15, 2007 1:04am
well, yes and no. being skeptical definitely will help you succeed, but ignorance is bliss
Relax and be happy.
  • #35
  • Sep 15, 2007 9:57am Sep 15, 2007 9:57am
Quoting Plutonite
I owe everything I ever did right to skepticism, then firm determination. The skeptic in you is your best friend, don't you think?
I'm a true believer in skepticism

BTW - I would be very skeptical of your Thomas Mann quote. At least it dodn't work for me.....
  • #36
  • Sep 15, 2007 12:47pm Sep 15, 2007 12:47pm
Quoting merlin
great post dave!

i am one of the few who doesnt think the fed will cut rates. the poor employment report made me second guess that theory, but i came back to my senses.

my argument is based on one thing... the fed has not given the "signal" yet. i made similar comments in wade's story the other day.

after reading bernanke's book "Inflation Targeting" (twice now) i am left with the impression that bernanke does not like to make reactive moves, and that every rate move will be signaled long before the move is made.

these are extraordinary times, so i wouldnt be so surprised to see a cut next week. but i am still leaning toward no cut.
Not lowering rates at this point would create too much upheaval in global equity markets so on that basis I feel the reduction is a done deal although there's no doubt that Bernanke would prefer not to. Much will depend on the statement; if it's dovish I would expect a very positive equity response and that means carry trade winding. Going forward, there are several important signs pointing towards a U.S. recession and that will lead to the dollar gaining quite a bit vs the high yielders (euro 1.30?) and depreciating towards 100 vs the Yen.
  • #37
  • Sep 15, 2007 1:01pm Sep 15, 2007 1:01pm
Quoting NewstraderFX
Not lowering rates at this point would create too much upheaval in global equity markets so on that basis I feel the reduction is a done deal
but wouldnt a dovish statement have the same effect as lowering rates? and since when is bernanke worried about the equity markets? last time i checked the fed's mission was to control inflation, not help greedy investors LOL
Relax and be happy.
  • #38
  • Sep 15, 2007 1:06pm Sep 15, 2007 1:06pm
btw, the reason im so big on this "signal is the same as a cut" idea is because perception is actually reality. take inflation for instance...the fed is every bit concerned about inflation expectations as they are true inflation! perception is everything, bernanke is a big believer in that.
Relax and be happy.
  • #39
  • Sep 15, 2007 1:30pm Sep 15, 2007 1:30pm
Quoting merlin
but wouldnt a dovish statement have the same effect as lowering rates? and since when is bernanke worried about the equity markets? last time i checked the fed's mission was to control inflation, not help greedy investors LOL
The fed notes traders expectations in the minutes so they must be looking at them. If they hold rates and issue a dovish statement it won't be just equity markets tanking, the entire ABCP and interbank lending market will go nuts.
  • #40
  • Sep 15, 2007 1:33pm Sep 15, 2007 1:33pm
Quoting merlin
but wouldnt a dovish statement have the same effect as lowering rates? and since when is bernanke worried about the equity markets? last time i checked the fed's mission was to control inflation, not help greedy investors LOL
I don't believe so because they've already issued a dovish statement back on Aug 17. The fed has a dual mandate to control inflation and to promote growth. They will attribute the rate cut as focusing on the increased risks to growth.
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