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Daily95pips

  • #361
  • Sep 13, 2007 2:00am Sep 13, 2007 2:00am
I'm new and I hope no question is stupid. Would someone please define what and how to indentify a ranging market and a trending market?

This is great, I have learned more here is a few days then in most of what I have done.

Thanks to all!!!
  • #362
  • Sep 13, 2007 4:54am Sep 13, 2007 4:54am
At the moment i see in my demo account that the Daily95 today have big loss. Not a good week for now.
  • #363
  • Sep 13, 2007 5:11am Sep 13, 2007 5:11am
lost.. sigh...
Quoting SynWind
i join you.. but i only doing demo.
  • #364
  • Sep 13, 2007 6:13am Sep 13, 2007 6:13am
Quoting SynWind
lost.. sigh...
Well I set my TP for 1pip just to get the heck out of that trade and luckily it was hit overnight and i didnt lose anything on my live account. If i had bought instead of sold eur/jpy id be a rich man this morning. I guess this is just one of those times when bk's system doesnt work, the retract was hardly anything.
Spawn - how did your trade come out?
EDIT: Actually mikes system might have been a winner last night since the market was more trending than ranging....
  • #365
  • Sep 13, 2007 6:27am Sep 13, 2007 6:27am
Quoting c0mputernick
Well I set my TP for 1pip just to get the heck out of that trade and luckily it was hit overnight and i didnt lose anything on my live account. If i had bought instead of sold eur/jpy id be a rich man this morning. I guess this is just one of those times when bk's system doesnt work, the retract was hardly anything.
Spawn - how did your trade come out?
EDIT: Actually mikes system might have been a winner last night since the market was more trending than ranging....
In EURJPY i take the SL. While in EURUSD the bksujal approach work well today. The mikelath method today is a disaster, at the moment (EURJPY, USDJPY, GBPJPY and EURUSD exit to a triple SL).
  • #366
  • Sep 13, 2007 12:37pm Sep 13, 2007 12:37pm
Quoting c0mputernick
Well I set my TP for 1pip just to get the heck out of that trade and luckily it was hit overnight and i didnt lose anything on my live account. If i had bought instead of sold eur/jpy id be a rich man this morning. I guess this is just one of those times when bk's system doesnt work, the retract was hardly anything.
Spawn - how did your trade come out?
EDIT: Actually mikes system might have been a winner last night since the market was more trending than ranging....
Why don't you combine the two... Buy/sell on breakout from the high/low... If it retraces from the high/low 10 or whatever percent sell.. Or use two accounts/....
.
  • #367
  • Sep 13, 2007 6:08pm Sep 13, 2007 6:08pm
Okay everyone,
I have decided to make an EA, I'll try my best. If someone can explain the system again, for me, with all the modifications, i'd be happy to start coding.
Request custom Expert Advisor or Indicator: dostapyuk "at" gmail . com
  • #368
  • Sep 13, 2007 6:28pm Sep 13, 2007 6:28pm
For all of you (including me) that wanted to know how to read the ATR:

http://www.forexproject.com/Blog/Inv...ice_Filtering/

Hope that helps, it did for me.
  • #369
  • Sep 13, 2007 6:50pm Sep 13, 2007 6:50pm
Daily95pips.
Date: Monday 10 September 2007
GBPUSD -90
GBPJPY no touch
USDJPY no touch
EURJPY no touch
EURUSD -15

Total: -105pips

Comment: The cable trade only just triggered before retracing to the stop.
Manually closed out EURUSD.

Date: Tuesday 11 September 2007
GBPUSD -135
GBPJPY -90
USDJPY -90
EURJPY +95
EURUSD +49

Total: -171pips

Comment: Both long and short orders triggered on GBPUSD. GBPJPY and USDJPY triggered only to be stopped out before price continued to go beyond all 3 profit targets.

Date: Wednesday 12 September 2007
GBPUSD -45
GBPJPY -90
USDJPY no touch
EURJPY +95
EURUSD +95

Total: +55pips

Comment: So far EURJPY has been the most consistent and profitable pair for this strategy and it performed well again today.

Date: Thursday 13 September 2007
GBPUSD +15
GBPJPY -90
USDJPY +95
EURJPY -90
EURUSD -90

Total: -160pips

Comment: Wow. All I can say is that I'm glad I'm not trading this system live. Even if over time the system is profitable, the drawdowns along the way may be too great to be comfortable. Today even USDJPY came within 2pips of the stoploss.



bksujal system.
Date: Monday 10 September 2007
GBPUSD +31
EURJPY +40

Total: +71pips

Comment: A great ranging day. There were a lot more pips in the EURJPY than my 40TP, so may adjust levels or use mutliple profit targets in future. Will most likely add GBPJPY to the mix. Manually closed out GBPUSD trade.

Date: Tuesday 11 September 2007
GBPUSD -25
EURJPY -25
GBPJPY -25

Total: -75pips

Comment: Some on this thread had different results based on different TP and SL levels, broker data and entry times.

Date: Wednesday 12 September 2007
GBPUSD -25
GBPJPY -25
EURJPY -25

Total: -75pips

Comment: The stop levels of 25pips are obviously too small to provide volatile pairs such as these room to move.

Date: Thursday 13 September 2007
GBPUSD -25
GBPJPY no touch
EURJPY -25

Total: -50pips

Comment: Ok, I'm getting around to adjusting TP and SL levels.
  • #370
  • Sep 13, 2007 7:14pm Sep 13, 2007 7:14pm
Quoting mikelath
Daily95pips.
Date: Monday 10 September 2007
GBPUSD -90
GBPJPY no touch
USDJPY no touch
EURJPY no touch
EURUSD -15

Total: -105pips

Comment: The cable trade only just triggered before retracing to the stop.
Manually closed out EURUSD.

Date: Tuesday 11 September 2007
GBPUSD -135
GBPJPY -90
USDJPY -90
EURJPY +95
EURUSD +49

Total: -171pips

Comment: Both long and short orders triggered on GBPUSD. GBPJPY and USDJPY triggered only to be stopped out before price continued to go beyond all 3 profit targets.

Date: Wednesday 12 September 2007
GBPUSD -45
GBPJPY -90
USDJPY no touch
EURJPY +95
EURUSD +95

Total: +55pips

Comment: So far EURJPY has been the most consistent and profitable pair for this strategy and it performed well again today.

Date: Thursday 13 September 2007
GBPUSD +15
GBPJPY -90
USDJPY +95
EURJPY -90
EURUSD -90

Total: -160pips

Comment: Wow. All I can say is that I'm glad I'm not trading this system live. Even if over time the system is profitable, the drawdowns along the way may be too great to be comfortable. Today even USDJPY came within 2pips of the stoploss.



bksujal system.
Date: Monday 10 September 2007
GBPUSD +31
EURJPY +40

Total: +71pips

Comment: A great ranging day. There were a lot more pips in the EURJPY than my 40TP, so may adjust levels or use mutliple profit targets in future. Will most likely add GBPJPY to the mix. Manually closed out GBPUSD trade.

Date: Tuesday 11 September 2007
GBPUSD -25
EURJPY -25
GBPJPY -25

Total: -75pips

Comment: Some on this thread had different results based on different TP and SL levels, broker data and entry times.

Date: Wednesday 12 September 2007
GBPUSD -25
GBPJPY -25
EURJPY -25

Total: -75pips

Comment: The stop levels of 25pips are obviously too small to provide volatile pairs such as these room to move.

Date: Thursday 13 September 2007
GBPUSD -25
GBPJPY no touch
EURJPY -25

Total: -50pips

Comment: Ok, I'm getting around to adjusting TP and SL levels.
Ouch man, maybe we should give the method the nick name of Daily-95pips ;-)
  • #371
  • Sep 13, 2007 7:52pm Sep 13, 2007 7:52pm
Why not just trade the opposite?

Then the "Daily-95pips" would turn to "Daily+95pips", try it Mikelath?

Also, where can I find the most recent method explanation?

Thank you.
Request custom Expert Advisor or Indicator: dostapyuk "at" gmail . com
  • #372
  • Sep 13, 2007 9:01pm Sep 13, 2007 9:01pm
Quoting Oksana17
Okay everyone,
I have decided to make an EA, I'll try my best. If someone can explain the system again, for me, with all the modifications, i'd be happy to start coding.

Which system are you referring to, Oksana. Your willingness to code an EA is most appreciated. Mikelath's system is laid out quite well in post 1; however, I'm not sure what BK's system is, as his results and exit strategy seems to change from trade to trade.

Walt
  • #373
  • Sep 13, 2007 9:05pm Sep 13, 2007 9:05pm
Mikelath,

Try backtesting and forward testing with 100 pips SL. I believe that most of your loses would have turned profitable if they had a little more breathing room.

Walt
  • #374
  • Sep 13, 2007 10:14pm Sep 13, 2007 10:14pm
Quoting Oksana17
Why not just trade the opposite?

Then the "Daily-95pips" would turn to "Daily+95pips", try it Mikelath?

Also, where can I find the most recent method explanation?

Thank you.
It was mainly a joke, but hey you could try it out and see what happens.
  • #375
  • Sep 14, 2007 9:48pm Sep 14, 2007 9:48pm
Quoting c0mputernick
It was mainly a joke, but hey you could try it out and see what happens.
hehehe...ok, ok. Yeah, I know...we've gotta laugh right ?

I've been holding off adjusting the TP and SL levels mainly due to money management and risk/reward considerations.
Yes, you are absolutely right though. If the results are not good, we have to adjust SOMETHING. There's no use in cutting our losses by having tighter stops when all we get are more losses.
I could use larger stops and it probably will increase the profitability, though it will also increase the potential losses.
This past week has been a shocker though I still think it may be too early to start changing things too much.

mike
  • #376
  • Sep 14, 2007 10:03pm Sep 14, 2007 10:03pm
Daily95pips.
Date: Monday 10 September 2007
GBPUSD -90
GBPJPY no touch
USDJPY no touch
EURJPY no touch
EURUSD -15

Total: -105pips

Comment: The cable trade only just triggered before retracing to the stop.
Manually closed out EURUSD.

Date: Tuesday 11 September 2007
GBPUSD -135
GBPJPY -90
USDJPY -90
EURJPY +95
EURUSD +49

Total: -171pips

Comment: Both long and short orders triggered on GBPUSD. GBPJPY and USDJPY triggered only to be stopped out before price continued to go beyond all 3 profit targets.

Date: Wednesday 12 September 2007
GBPUSD -45
GBPJPY -90
USDJPY no touch
EURJPY +95
EURUSD +95

Total: +55pips

Comment: So far EURJPY has been the most consistent and profitable pair for this strategy and it performed well again today.

Date: Thursday 13 September 2007
GBPUSD +15
GBPJPY -90
USDJPY +95
EURJPY -90
EURUSD -90

Total: -160pips

Comment: Wow. All I can say is that I'm glad I'm not trading this system live. Even if over time the system is profitable, the drawdowns along the way may be too great to be comfortable. Today even USDJPY came within 2pips of the stoploss.

Date: Friday 14 September 2007
GBPUSD -90
GBPJPY -90
USDJPY no touch
EURJPY no touch
EURUSD -90

Total: -270pips

Comment: Well, no comment really except that IF wider stops were used the results would have been very different because some days this week were very 'trending' where price went beyond the profit targets after the trades were stopped out. Larger stops also means larger drawdowns, so I'll wait for a few more weeks worth of results before getting into tweaking the system.

Total for week ending Friday 14 September 2007: -651pips
Total for week ending Friday 7 September 2007: +164pips
Total for week ending Friday 31 August 2007: +585pips




bksujal system.
Date: Monday 10 September 2007
GBPUSD +31
EURJPY +40

Total: +71pips

Comment: A great ranging day. There were a lot more pips in the EURJPY than my 40TP, so may adjust levels or use mutliple profit targets in future. Will most likely add GBPJPY to the mix. Manually closed out GBPUSD trade.

Date: Tuesday 11 September 2007
GBPUSD -25
EURJPY -25
GBPJPY -25

Total: -75pips

Comment: Some on this thread had different results based on different TP and SL levels, broker data and entry times.

Date: Wednesday 12 September 2007
GBPUSD -25
GBPJPY -25
EURJPY -25

Total: -75pips

Comment: The stop levels of 25pips are obviously too small to provide volatile pairs such as these room to move.

Date: Thursday 13 September 2007
GBPUSD -25
GBPJPY no touch
EURJPY -25

Total: -50pips

Comment: Ok, I'm getting around to adjusting TP and SL levels.

Date: Friday 14 September 2007
GBPUSD -25
GBPJPY -25
EURJPY no touch

Total: -50pips

Comment: I'm eternally optimistic.

Weekly result ending Friday 14 September: -179pips
  • #377
  • Edited 10:30pm Sep 14, 2007 10:09pm | Edited 10:30pm
Hi all.
The individual pair results for the week ending Friday 14 September 2007 are:

GBPUSD -345
GBPJPY -360
USDJPY +5
EURJPY +100
EURUSD -51

Total: -651pips

The individual pair results for the week ending Friday 7 September 2007 are:

GBPUSD +210
GBPJPY +25
USDJPY -154
EURJPY +10
EURGBP -165
EURUSD +238

Total: +164pips

For the past 3 weeks:

GBPUSD -280
GBPJPY -360
USDJPY +21
EURJPY +425
EURUSD +207

Total: +98pips

Comment: EURJPY is still proving to be the most suited to this strategy. Although the past week's overall result was terrible, based on 3 weeks of trading, EURJPY and EURUSD are shining forth.
  • #378
  • Sep 14, 2007 11:40pm Sep 14, 2007 11:40pm
This system losses to much.
Request custom Expert Advisor or Indicator: dostapyuk "at" gmail . com
  • #379
  • Sep 15, 2007 9:58am Sep 15, 2007 9:58am
Quoting mikelath
Hi all.

Comment: EURJPY is still proving to be the most suited to this strategy. Although the past week's overall result was terrible, based on 3 weeks of trading, EURJPY and EURUSD are shining forth.
Good work, Mike! You'll get on the road to forturne soon or later with such consistent work.
But one question, (sorry if it's explained, i lost the track of every post)
Do you now use the 4th lot to run on a trailing stop? I understand there are 3 lots respectively for long and short, but another smart guy "billrock" mentioned the profits may increase much by adding a 4th lot with a trailing stop.

Thanks.
  • #380
  • Sep 15, 2007 12:41pm Sep 15, 2007 12:41pm
Quoting charvo
Good work, Mike! You'll get on the road to forturne soon or later with such consistent work.
But one question, (sorry if it's explained, i lost the track of every post)
Do you now use the 4th lot to run on a trailing stop? I understand there are 3 lots respectively for long and short, but another smart guy "billrock" mentioned the profits may increase much by adding a 4th lot with a trailing stop.

Thanks.
I have made some statistical analysis. Here are the HARD FACTS. Probabilities or odds if you wish. You remeber? I always stress.
Now here is the problem

Out of 2073 days analysed of the GU.
The probability that it will reach 15 pips from previous high is 831 to 199
The probability that it will reach 30 pips from previous high is 641 to 389
The probability that it will reach 50 pips from previous high is 439 to 591

See the problem??? It is 57% probable that it will !!NOT!! reach the 50 pips from top... Now we also have an extra 5 pips.

DOOMED to FAILURE if you do not push the SL to BE when the second TP has been hit. It is even better if there is a fourth unit to increase the odds... The mas rise from previous high during this analysed period was 359 pips in a single day. Are you going to leave that on table. Nope. 4th unit is the answer.

Regards
Bullrock or "Billrock"
.
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