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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #25,501
  • Sep 12, 2007 9:50am Sep 12, 2007 9:50am
Hey Guys, does anyone pay attention to the Accumulation/Distribution indicator? I'm not sure how reliable it is, but I've been noticing that A/D on 4H, Daily, and Weekly are all very high and have not been taken down much at all from the downtrend we've temporarily been in lately, which makes me think that this pair isn't going to go much lower than it already has..

One other question: is it possible that the falling dollar value will actually end up saving us from a recession? I say this because our main problem right now is house values falling, right? Well, if the dollar drops like it has been, then won't that force our house values back up? For example, if you had a $100K house 2 years ago, which is now worth $70K due to the housing bubble bursting, wouldn't it be worth close to $100K again now that the dollar has dropped so much? If so, then imagine our house values once the home buyers realize this and start buying all the houses back again! Of course, the dollar could recover significantly and put an end to that..

Any thoughts?
  • #25,502
  • Sep 12, 2007 9:53am Sep 12, 2007 9:53am
Oil Inventories fell by 7 million barrels. That should put the oil price way up. It is trading at record highs in NY.
  • #25,503
  • Sep 12, 2007 9:56am Sep 12, 2007 9:56am
Usd/jpy 15m, 30m, 1hr, and 4hr are all crossed up on qqe. I've had long at 232.00 since yesterday. I guess we'll see what is in store for us.
  • #25,504
  • Sep 12, 2007 9:59am Sep 12, 2007 9:59am
Momentum on my 5 min chart did NOT support that spike up.....I wonder if it was stop hunting....twt

Edit: in either GJ or UJ.....cable was inconclusive
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #25,505
  • Sep 12, 2007 10:01am Sep 12, 2007 10:01am
Quoting Islander
Momentum on my 5 min chart did NOT support that spike up.....I wonder if it was stop hunting....twt
I'm messing with the bulls a little, i'm bored you know
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #25,506
  • Sep 12, 2007 10:02am Sep 12, 2007 10:02am
gasoline inventories down another 700,000 barrels. We now have 13.5 hours of supply above the minimum operating levels nationwide.

We are so near the breaking point in so many ways it is scary. I will be totally and completely shocked if there is not a crash by the end of the year.
  • #25,507
  • Sep 12, 2007 10:02am Sep 12, 2007 10:02am
pivot point in usd/jpy has held again which is why, imo, the gbp/jpy has gone south again. Just a thought...I'm new with this pair....
  • #25,508
  • Sep 12, 2007 10:04am Sep 12, 2007 10:04am
If some of you want to do something interesting, and educational, while watching this market go nowhere, take a look back at the historical weekly charts going back into the early 1990's and the 1980's. The weekend gaps back then regularly ran 400 to 500 pips. There was one gap in September of 1985 that opened 700 pips lower than it had closed on Friday! But here is a shot of the ultimate gap from March of 1978. The market closes on Friday at 421.23 and opens Monday morning at 409.21, a full 1200 pips lower than the Friday close! Now that's a gap!

M2B

PS- Have you ever seen such an ugly gap?
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Attached Image
  • #25,509
  • Sep 12, 2007 10:05am Sep 12, 2007 10:05am
Quoting pwegner
Oil Inventories fell by 7 million barrels. That should put the oil price way up. It is trading at record highs in NY.
gasoline inventory is what you need to be watching. Gas prices are depressed, even though oil prices are high, because of recession fears. As soon as storage levels drop a little more, we are likely to see a step jump up in gasoline prices. $4-5/gallon is my guesstimate very soon.
  • #25,510
  • Sep 12, 2007 10:05am Sep 12, 2007 10:05am
Quoting pwegner
Oil Inventories fell by 7 million barrels. That should put the oil price way up. It is trading at record highs in NY.

That is not good for this pair
Still holding my shorts. Cross fingers http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon13.gif
  • #25,511
  • Sep 12, 2007 10:16am Sep 12, 2007 10:16am
hmmmmm, been out for a little while. and everything is going as expected, just nice

i am showing 30m qqe pointing up and high! also a really cute momentum on the h1 chart show crossed over 0 line again

now now now, come on h1 qqe, give me a cross back upwards, i'm ready to go long for a "sweet" 400 pips!

as i said before, strive as much as u want GJ, you ars is going up up up!
  • #25,512
  • Sep 12, 2007 10:21am Sep 12, 2007 10:21am
dow propelling upwards
  • #25,513
  • Sep 12, 2007 10:23am Sep 12, 2007 10:23am
I was finally able to close my long from last night in profit. I am sure that the dow is going to 13400 today, and I could have made more if I held. I just want out of the market right now.
  • #25,514
  • Sep 12, 2007 10:24am Sep 12, 2007 10:24am
Looks like we have strong Resistance (232.25) at the monthly pivot point, maybe we got some upward action if it breaks ? My trendlines are starting to point upward (rainbow)

And QQE crossed on both 5 and 60 (15M)
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Measure twice, cut once
  • #25,515
  • Sep 12, 2007 10:30am Sep 12, 2007 10:30am
Quoting markam
gasoline inventory is what you need to be watching. Gas prices are depressed, even though oil prices are high, because of recession fears. As soon as storage levels drop a little more, we are likely to see a step jump up in gasoline prices. $4-5/gallon is my guesstimate very soon.
Yes, crude has exceeded the previous (all-time) high. Chart attached. Where will it end?
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  • #25,516
  • Sep 12, 2007 10:38am Sep 12, 2007 10:38am
Quoting markam
I was finally able to close my long from last night in profit. I am sure that the dow is going to 13400 today, and I could have made more if I held. I just want out of the market right now.


gasoline inventory is what you need to be watching. Gas prices are depressed, even though oil prices are high, because of recession fears. As soon as storage levels drop a little more, we are likely to see a step jump up in gasoline prices. $4-5/gallon is my guesstimate very soon.
Markam,

I always like to read your message, but if the above message is taking place. Why the dow is going up to 13400, today?
  • #25,517
  • Sep 12, 2007 10:41am Sep 12, 2007 10:41am
Quoting trader8686
Markam,

I always like to read your message, but if the above message is taking place. Why the dow is going up to 13400, today?

If I may try based on this scenario, maybe Markam can correct me later. If oil price is up will cause JPY down which is cheaper for equity investor to borrow yen and buy stocks.
  • #25,518
  • Sep 12, 2007 10:41am Sep 12, 2007 10:41am
Quoting Zoran
Yes, crude has exceeded the previous (all-time) high. Chart attached. Where will it end?
At the point of worldwide economic collapse. Even if the US goes into a depression and oil consumption drops, China will just use what we don't.

We have passed the peak of oil production. The scarier story is the drop in oil available for export. It will fall much, much faster than total oil production. Great Britain went from peak oil production to becoming a net oil importer in 7 years. Indonesia did the same. Mexico will have no exports in about 5 years. Anybody that imports oil is going to quickly find out that the only way to obtain imports is by force.

Of course, the US (and england) will be able to get oil from Iraq, because we will not leave that country until it is pumped dry. The problem is that we are going to have to occupy Iran, Mexico, Canada and Venezuela in order to keep consuming at our current rate. That may be a little bit difficult.
  • #25,519
  • Sep 12, 2007 10:43am Sep 12, 2007 10:43am
Quoting trader8686
Markam,

I always like to read your message, but if the above message is taking place. Why the dow is going up to 13400, today?
Because the US stock market has no basis in reality, and the market likes to hit big round numbers to provide momentum for the next day.
  • #25,520
  • Sep 12, 2007 10:49am Sep 12, 2007 10:49am
It seems that we could close in the next hour (15 min more to come) and would cause slow stoch indicates overbought. That would make my shorts a bit comfortable
If I didn't take a short position earlier, I would not go for short either at least for now.
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