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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #25,121
  • Sep 11, 2007 9:07pm Sep 11, 2007 9:07pm
Quoting brok
Markam we know that China has USD reserves in huge amount. Do you think they will at one point start selling? Do you have scenarios for that too?
China is using their dollar reserves to buy up equities, commodities and influence worldwide. They won't actually sell their dollars, they will just use them as long as the dollar has some value remaining.

The real issue are treasury notes and the continued buying of treasury notes. China has been financing our debt, and their expansion, by taking much of there trade surplus and buying our debt issues. This has allowed the lopsided trade deficit to continue far beyond the point it should have. Now they (along with Japan) are stuck with hundreds of billions in treasury notes that they cannot do anything with. If they try to sell them, they crash their value, send interest rates through the roof in the US, plunge the US into depression/recession, and screw up their favorable balance of trade.

Up until now, their only choice has been to hold the notes and continue to buy new ones. I believe that we are approaching the point where that strategy is no longer viable, or even desired by the Chinese. It will not be pretty when this house of cards collapses.
  • #25,122
  • Sep 11, 2007 9:08pm Sep 11, 2007 9:08pm
Quoting auslanco
Here's what UBS says about Eur/USd
Definetely USD is the most under valued currency for now but I don't trust that percentage of gaining value and don't think the issues are solved... The big boys do play this game well... They make us believe there isn't a problem and the next day they turn around 180
  • #25,123
  • Sep 11, 2007 9:11pm Sep 11, 2007 9:11pm
Some news about UK Hedge fund (Wharton hedge fund) in trouble.. lost 25% in july.. is suspending calculations of its assets. That's bad when you stop trying to figure out how much money you have left lol.
  • #25,124
  • Sep 11, 2007 9:13pm Sep 11, 2007 9:13pm
So many of them are halting redemptions.

Quoting VishalJ
Some news about UK Hedge fund (Wharton hedge fund) in trouble.. lost 25% in july.. is suspending calculations of its assets. That's bad when you stop trying to figure out how much money you have left lol.
  • #25,125
  • Sep 11, 2007 9:13pm Sep 11, 2007 9:13pm
Quoting kreeper_6
actually the daily pivot is 231.40.
I do see that on my charts but I don't like to talk about or use pivot points in my analysis because they are not concrete and vary from person to person, depending on how you figure them and what points you use to reference them. For example, your dailly high and low will vary from someone else's whose daily candle begins and ends at a different time than yours, and it could be a significant difference. The indicators I pointed out might vary a couple of pips on each platform but they are pretty much the same across the board on all charts.

M2B
  • #25,126
  • Sep 11, 2007 9:14pm Sep 11, 2007 9:14pm
Quoting my2buoys
It seems like price just stopped going down in the middle of nowhere until I looked at my 30M chart (which I don't give a whole lot of credence to in general) and lo and behold price stopped right at the 200EMA. I then had an idea and threw Hakuna's 50EMA on the same chart and BAMMO!, it lined up perfectly with the 200. They're both sitting right at 231.42. Hmmmm. Interesting. I don't usually use the 50EMA, just the 200EMA for general reference purposes. This makes it interesting.

M2B

PS- Orange is the 200EMA and Aqua is the 50EMA.
i use 200ema on lrger TF's (1hr and upwards)
but great finding

now as u all know--yesterday we were getting tired of that 50ema on 1hr--it just wouldnt brk it and after it broke it--it becomes a Support--so as u can see now--its acting like that annoying S-- a close below that--im shorting this mother... i see bearish signs forming everywhere--just waiting for a confirmation
  • #25,127
  • Sep 11, 2007 9:22pm Sep 11, 2007 9:22pm
Quoting BenQ
off topic, but anybody here trade nzdjpy?
Yep. I do Ben. My favourite pair.

I've got 2 open lots from yesterday at 7942. (I did have 3 at 7880 that I foolishly closed).

I'm waiting for the price to go to 8020-8030 and then I'll be a buyer again at the 4hr 5sma.

15mins, 30mins, and 1hr stochs v.oversold, and will (I hope) turn up again this avo.

Judging from the price action since Monday, people are looking tentatively at carry trades again in the hope that the worst of the sub prime and credit issues are over.
  • #25,128
  • Sep 11, 2007 9:23pm Sep 11, 2007 9:23pm
I usualy trade with 60 and 200 EMA, and 60 ma turned south 2 hrs back on the 5min chart, 1 min chart it already crossed the 200 MA downwards, this is very bearish, atleast 100-150 pips downward move predicted once this damn support at 231.60-80 gives away
  • #25,129
  • Sep 11, 2007 9:25pm Sep 11, 2007 9:25pm
Favorite, really? I've been short this pair since yesterday.

Quoting AndyPass
Yep. I do Ben. My favourite pair.

I've got 2 open lots from yesterday at 7942. (I did have 3 at 7880 that I foolishly closed).

I'm waiting for the price to go to 8020-8030 and then I'll be a buyer again at the 4hr 5sma.

15mins, 30mins, and 1hr stochs v.oversold, and will (I hope) turn up again this avo.

Judging from the price action since Monday, people are looking tentatively at carry trades again in the hope that the worst of the sub prime and credit issues are over.
  • #25,130
  • Sep 11, 2007 9:26pm Sep 11, 2007 9:26pm
Quoting Hakuna Matata
i use 200ema on lrger TF's (1hr and upwards)
but great finding

now as u all know--yesterday we were getting tired of that 50ema on 1hr--it just wouldnt brk it and after it broke it--it becomes a Support--so as u can see now--its acting like that annoying S-- a close below that--im shorting this mother... i see bearish signs forming everywhere--just waiting for a confirmation
I see negative inverted divergence on MACD to price on the 1H and the 30M. I was just kinda hoping to get a retrace back to the 1H 5SMA to around the 231.90 area before shorting.

M2B
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy 1h.gif Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy 30m.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #25,131
  • Sep 11, 2007 9:32pm Sep 11, 2007 9:32pm
Quoting BenQ
Favorite, really? I've been short this pair since yesterday.
Why are you short? If you don't mind me asking.

I like this pair as you get nice interest payments each day as a buyer (triple interest tonight!), and it tends to mirror GJ but is far less volatile - you can have a 125 pip SL and not have it wiped out in 15mins. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
  • #25,132
  • Sep 11, 2007 9:33pm Sep 11, 2007 9:33pm
we might see this rising trendline become support at 230.50 - 65 if price does go below 231.60 level
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gjpy.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #25,133
  • Sep 11, 2007 9:35pm Sep 11, 2007 9:35pm
You know, looking at this I really have trouble believing that BB is going to cut rates next week. Even without trying to speed up the decline, I think the dollar index is going to be at about 50 in 2 years.

Anybody that thinks the dollar is undervalued right now is smoking crack. Any value above nothing makes the dollar overvalued.

http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1113/...865dfb52_o.png
  • #25,134
  • Sep 11, 2007 9:36pm Sep 11, 2007 9:36pm
Since it's off thread topic I'll PM you.

Quoting AndyPass
Why are you short? If you don't mind me asking.

I like this pair as you get nice interest payments each day as a buyer (triple interest tonight!), and it tends to mirror GJ but is far less volatile - you can have a 125 pip SL and not have it wiped out in 15mins. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
  • #25,135
  • Sep 11, 2007 9:39pm Sep 11, 2007 9:39pm
Do I smell a 1hr trend reversal
  • #25,136
  • Sep 11, 2007 9:41pm Sep 11, 2007 9:41pm
Quoting markam
You know, looking at this I really have trouble believing that BB is going to cut rates next week. Even without trying to speed up the decline, I think the dollar index is going to be at about 50 in 2 years.

Sure thing, Both the UBS and Citibank are crack junkies:
  • #25,137
  • Sep 11, 2007 9:44pm Sep 11, 2007 9:44pm
Quoting auslanco
Do I smell a 1hr trend reversal

30mn price bounced up from 50 ema and 200ema confluence.
  • #25,138
  • Sep 11, 2007 9:51pm Sep 11, 2007 9:51pm
Attached Image
  • #25,139
  • Sep 11, 2007 9:52pm Sep 11, 2007 9:52pm
Quoting auslanco
Sure thing, Both the UBS and Citibank are crack junkies:
I agree that America as a country is undervalued. We have great resources, we still (in spite of great efforts by the powers that be) have a strong manufacturing base, and the greatest agricultural productivity in the world. We have great universities, a diverse, well educated population (at least for 10-20% of the population), and many well run, important corporations. Hollywood and our current government have created a global perspective of this country that is not at all valid.

It is the American currency and economic system that is sick and dying. Nothing is being done to fix that. Instead, we seem to be intent on accelerating as we approach the wall. I see no sign that any effort is going to be made to save the dollar. Until it finally crashes, it will continue to be overvalued.
  • #25,140
  • Sep 11, 2007 9:53pm Sep 11, 2007 9:53pm
15 mn has retraced to 50ema . . . very nearly crossed-up too . . . waiting for new candle opening to check cross-up and MoM
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