Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

I closed most of my short positions @ 4hr and Daily 5 sma. I still got that "weekend beer money" position open untill I see a reversal

Markam we know that China has USD reserves in huge amount. Do you think they will at one point start selling? Do you have scenarios for that too?

according to Citibank Analysts.. USD is the most under valued currency , specially against the Euro right now. I doubt they will sell their USD anytime Soon.

yup

sorry it's 4.30 am here, i'm getting kinda drunk, that's how sleepy i am !

Why you should care about Chinese M2
By John Jagerson, 11 September 2007

M2 in China is due for release tomorrow. You may be wondering why this matters as almost none of us are trading Chinese currency. This is a big deal and the focus on the Chinese inflationary problem is going to increase in the short term, which could affect the forex. As I have pointed about in a few previous posts, the JPY will be extremely sensitive to changes in the exchange rate in China or dramatic shifts in monetary policy. With a 10-year record inflation rate reported last night and a huge M2 number about to be reported, the risk factors are likely to accelerate.

M2 is a broad measure of money supply. When M2 rises there is more money in the economy and inflation is also rising. This is an issue in China because the pace of inflation has been so fast. If we see the increase we are expecting in this report, it will be a confirmation that things are getting out of control in the Chinese economy. Once the problem gets this bad, the methods to reverse the trend become more dramatic and include massive rate hikes, currency revaluations or waiting until things get much worse and collapse. I seriously doubt that the Chinese government is going to just ignore the problem and that means they will eventually take some action.

As traders we deal with expectations as much as facts and that means we will be watching this situation as it unfolds. If expectations for a big adjustment rise, we will feel the ripples in the forex, especially in the value of the JPY.

Nikkei loosing a bit of steam.

Two charts here. The first is the Weekly. Notice the wedge we're in right now. We're in the 4th straight week of 'inside candles'. Something's getting ready to bust big soon. The second chart is the Daily. Again, notice the wedge. The bottom bullish line isn't a true Tom DeMark trendline but it suits the purpose of this chart. Notice especially the top bearish line coming down. Even with the earlier upside activity we still haven't had a Daily close above this line dating back to July 20. As I said, something big is getting ready to bust out soon. A good trend, up or down, should be the result.

M2B

Thnx for the explanations

It sure looks like we've found a new price range. Roughly 231.50 - 232.50.

we/ve got a bounce off the 30min /50 ema, 1hr/100sma
its closed back down below 4hr/50ema and MP

looks bearish so far--still in middle of analysis
bbs

and bounce off the daily 38.2% fib

That's kind of late! Do you try to trade during certain hours?

Here's what UBS says about Eur/USd

anyone here from the old dailyfx.com room??

It seems like price just stopped going down in the middle of nowhere until I looked at my 30M chart (which I don't give a whole lot of credence to in general) and lo and behold price stopped right at the 200EMA. I then had an idea and threw Hakuna's 50EMA on the same chart and BAMMO!, it lined up perfectly with the 200. They're both sitting right at 231.42. Hmmmm. Interesting. I don't usually use the 50EMA, just the 200EMA for general reference purposes. This makes it interesting.

M2B

PS- Orange is the 200EMA and Aqua is the 50EMA.

off topic, but anybody here trade nzdjpy?

MOM looks like a bear on 4hr. 1hr. 30min. and all lower TFs.

Daily too!

actually the daily pivot is 231.40.

My Alpari demo feed shows a double bar high lower close on the 4 hour with fib confluence at the high. This is a strongly bearish sign.