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Another way to trade PA profitably

  • #101
  • Edited 2:11pm Sep 11, 2007 2:09pm | Edited 2:11pm
Quoting CateFul
Yes you're right.
But remember these are trades that could last weeks!
So if you see some drawdown do not panic. There will be ups/downs.
Despite all the USD/JPY bearish outlooks posted here I'm still going to take long. And once I'm in I don't look at the position until the end of the week.

I just want to point out that Urchin is taking short term daily swings off a long term weekly trend. I don't think they can be compared. No offense. pips are pips.
great cateful,
Im with you...will keep watching and learning, I wen to the chart that raczekfx posted on the first page, the number 1, and I can see what youre saying, very exciting! So currently long gbpusd, audusd and usdjpy, short eur, all teeny tiny posis to watch how it goes...thanks for the thread, nice work, Raz
ps LOVE how well this combines with PA
Never say never.
  • #102
  • Sep 11, 2007 2:35pm Sep 11, 2007 2:35pm
Quoting razldazl
great cateful,
Im with you...will keep watching and learning, I wen to the chart that raczekfx posted on the first page, the number 1, and I can see what youre saying, very exciting! So currently long gbpusd, audusd and usdjpy, short eur, all teeny tiny posis to watch how it goes...thanks for the thread, nice work, Raz
ps LOVE how well this combines with PA
may I know your reasons for short eur? True, there is resistance but I didn't see any price action to confirm this and the commercials are still relatively long, even though they came back down a little bit last week.
Take a report.
  • #103
  • Sep 11, 2007 3:05pm Sep 11, 2007 3:05pm
hi cateful,
yeah, I shorted the "all time" high, my stop was very close, and had it at b/e as soon as it dropped... you're right there wasnt a PA confirmation on that one, but it was too tempting not to try... Can I ask what you use for targets? I generally use fib extensions, I understand you can expect to be in a trade for a few weeks at a time, do you have any specific exit rules using PA or the COTS reports? Thanks, Raz
Never say never.
  • #104
  • Sep 11, 2007 4:25pm Sep 11, 2007 4:25pm
Quoting razldazl
hi cateful,
yeah, I shorted the "all time" high, my stop was very close, and had it at b/e as soon as it dropped... you're right there wasnt a PA confirmation on that one, but it was too tempting not to try... Can I ask what you use for targets? I generally use fib extensions, I understand you can expect to be in a trade for a few weeks at a time, do you have any specific exit rules using PA or the COTS reports? Thanks, Raz
I don't have a target, but I trail my stop as long as the commercials dont go to the oppposite extreme area.
Take a report.
  • #105
  • Sep 11, 2007 10:36pm Sep 11, 2007 10:36pm
Quoting CateFul
More to the power of the commercials.
This trade could yield 400+ pips just by following the commercials, blindly.
Thanks for your reply, Just wanna make sure I get you right
For example page 1 #3 YEN, The commercial short and the trend line short as well, so for next monday we only take short. althoght the commercial alreally on the bottom, Am I right?
Sorry.... I'm just newbee. Thanks alot
  • #106
  • Sep 11, 2007 11:55pm Sep 11, 2007 11:55pm

Hi Cateful,
You said earlier that this does not work well on all pairs, would usdcad happen to be one of the ones lol, why wouldnt that suprise me? thanks, Raz

Never say never.
  • #107
  • Sep 12, 2007 6:04am Sep 12, 2007 6:04am
Thanks Cateful for the help. You said that the Commericals are still realatively long on the Eur although there was a change. How do we tell the change, compare reports or open interest? We should watch for large changes in the Commericlals from week to week? Thanks in advance.
  • #108
  • Sep 12, 2007 9:30am Sep 12, 2007 9:30am
Thanks for this great thread Cateful----I have question: what method you use to trail your stop loss?
Happy trading!!
  • #109
  • Sep 12, 2007 11:25am Sep 12, 2007 11:25am
Quoting B4dak
Thanks for your reply, Just wanna make sure I get you right
For example page 1 #3 YEN, The commercial short and the trend line short as well, so for next monday we only take short. althoght the commercial alreally on the bottom, Am I right?
Sorry.... I'm just newbee. Thanks alot
when the commercials are on the bottom that means they short a lot of yen. meaning they think the yen is going to go down in the near future. so yes, you short with them.
Take a report.
  • #110
  • Sep 12, 2007 11:25am Sep 12, 2007 11:25am
Quoting razldazl

Hi Cateful,


You said earlier that this does not work well on all pairs, would usdcad happen to be one of the ones lol, why wouldnt that suprise me? thanks, Raz

yup, cad does work just not as beautifully as others if you look at its chart.
Take a report.
  • #111
  • Sep 12, 2007 11:26am Sep 12, 2007 11:26am
Quoting mmcoz
Thanks Cateful for the help. You said that the Commericals are still realatively long on the Eur although there was a change. How do we tell the change, compare reports or open interest? We should watch for large changes in the Commericlals from week to week? Thanks in advance.
COT index tells the change.
Take a report.
  • #112
  • Sep 12, 2007 11:27am Sep 12, 2007 11:27am
Quoting mysticgenie
Thanks for this great thread Cateful----I have question: what method you use to trail your stop loss?
Happy trading!!
mainly s/r
Take a report.
  • #113
  • Sep 12, 2007 11:41am Sep 12, 2007 11:41am
hmm this pair refuses to move, seems completely stuck in this area, aussie took off, thats a great trade
take care, Raz
Never say never.
  • #114
  • Sep 13, 2007 8:18am Sep 13, 2007 8:18am
Quoting CateFul
when the commercials are on the bottom that means they short a lot of yen. meaning they think the yen is going to go down in the near future. so yes, you short with them.
I got it now. Hopefully you don't mind keep teaching the newbee like me.
Thanks again
  • #115
  • Sep 13, 2007 9:43am Sep 13, 2007 9:43am
Quoting B4dak
I got it now. Hopefully you don't mind keep teaching the newbee like me.
Thanks again
anytime
but be careful of futures charts. the base currency is always USD. so if you short Yen you're actually long USD/JPY
Take a report.
  • #116
  • Sep 14, 2007 2:32am Sep 14, 2007 2:32am
Quoting CateFul
anytime
but be careful of futures charts. the base currency is always USD. so if you short Yen you're actually long USD/JPY
Thanks Mate
So if the Commercial Short in COT Yen Chart, It's mean we take long in USD/JPY. Am I Right?
  • #117
  • Sep 14, 2007 11:07am Sep 14, 2007 11:07am
Quoting B4dak
Thanks Mate
So if the Commercial Short in COT Yen Chart, It's mean we take long in USD/JPY. Am I Right?
yes and vice versa. Be aware of this week's COT.
Take a report.
  • #118
  • Sep 14, 2007 11:14am Sep 14, 2007 11:14am
Cateful,
will you be around to discuss this weeks report or are you off..thks, Raz
Never say never.
  • #119
  • Sep 14, 2007 12:37pm Sep 14, 2007 12:37pm
If Im reading this correctly, there has been a significant increase in shorts in eur and gbp by commercials...
Never say never.
  • #120
  • Sep 14, 2007 3:53pm Sep 14, 2007 3:53pm
Quoting razldazl
If Im reading this correctly, there has been a significant increase in shorts in eur and gbp by commercials...
not really significant. COT index is still above 80.

next week will be a nice one to long USD/CHF.
Take a report.
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