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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #13,381
  • Edited Sep 12, 2007 2:08am Sep 11, 2007 12:03pm | Edited Sep 12, 2007 2:08am
Today´s ranging market has demonstrated the value of pivots....the 3 green arrows were all good buys off pivot levels.

Now R1 - 231.82 - is acting as resistance for the second time.

I´m finished till the FO tomorrow......wonder if R1 will hold.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sep 11 5m 1300.gif Size: 14 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,382
  • Sep 11, 2007 1:00pm Sep 11, 2007 1:00pm
I am short with 1% at 231.87 with stops ar 232.90 and target as 228.00/225.18...
  • #13,383
  • Sep 11, 2007 1:30pm Sep 11, 2007 1:30pm
Quoting chimex
I am short with 1% at 231.87 with stops ar 232.90 and target as 228.00/225.18...
Fine, but please tell us your reasoning / analysis.....thanks
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,384
  • Edited Sep 12, 2007 2:03am Sep 11, 2007 4:43pm | Edited Sep 12, 2007 2:03am
Just came back to my Pc to find a nice surprise GJ at +200.

A nice steady trend and it has broken the 4 Hr declining trend line so maybe the carry traders are back in business.

After the last unwinding in February/March we had a steady rise through April/May but in a fairly tight range, maybe after July/August volatility we will have a similar effect.

See updated chart.

Edit: Have just added to my position on the recent bounce off the declining trend line with a tight stop just below the trend line and the last swing low. I see this as a low risk trade, Target 280 !!!!

Edit: Stopped out of the last position for +1, Guess I was a little optimistic!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj 15 m 110907.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #13,385
  • Sep 12, 2007 2:25am Sep 12, 2007 2:25am
Good Morning - well R1 didnt hold and the rally continued up another 70 pips before stopping just above M3 at the 50 level. For the last hour of that move The Snake was dropping - nice bearish divergence, so the second hit of the 50 level at 18:05 was a clear Sell signal for the 105 pip drop to the Daily Pivot at 231.45. The bounce off the Pivot stopped at the 78% fibbo.

The resignation of the Japanese PM Mr Abe caused a big spike up in Cable and the Euro which made new all time highs against US$

This prevented the fall in UJ from pulling GJ down with it.

As there is a Lower High at 00:45, the current pressure is down, but we need to see the reaction to the next testing of the Pivot before considering a trade. Lets see what The Brits decide to do.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sep 12 5m 0310.gif Size: 14 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,386
  • Sep 12, 2007 2:59am Sep 12, 2007 2:59am
Quoting Wolf.
Just came back to my Pc to find a nice surprise GJ at +200.

A nice steady trend and it has broken the 4 Hr declining trend line so maybe the carry traders are back in business.

After the last unwinding in February/March we had a steady rise through April/May but in a fairly tight range, maybe after July/August volatility we will have a similar effect.

See updated chart.

Edit: Have just added to my position on the recent bounce off the declining trend line with a tight stop just below the trend line and the last swing low. I see this as a low risk trade, Target 280 !!!!

Edit: Stopped out of the last position for +1, Guess I was a little optimistic!
Well good MM ensured that you banked a pip!

I have the declining TL from the July 20 high on the 4 hour chart currently at 232.05 for this candle which is about to close. So far, no 4 hr candle has closed above this TL
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,387
  • Edited 4:52am Sep 12, 2007 3:03am | Edited 4:52am
Good Morning,

Stopped out of my main position last night at 231.90 for +153

Placed an order at 231.60 L3 this morning at +1 right now looks likely it will stop me out.

Islander your snake I notice is showing some bullish divergence on the 1m so maybe I have a chance.

Price keeps probing the 4hr trend line, which way will it go?

Edit: Closed for +40 Looking bearish at the moment so just watching now.
  • #13,388
  • Sep 12, 2007 3:13am Sep 12, 2007 3:13am
Quoting Islander
Well good MM ensured that you banked a pip!

I have the declining TL from the July 20 high on the 4 hour chart currently at 232.05 for this candle which is about to close. So far, no 4 hr candle has closed above this TL
Yes you are of course correct, I was basing the that trade on a bounce off the 4hr trend line on a five minute chart and like I said optimism got the better of me lol.
  • #13,389
  • Sep 12, 2007 3:19am Sep 12, 2007 3:19am
The chart limit is 600 x 600 please do not post charts larger than this size.

Thanks
  • #13,390
  • Sep 12, 2007 3:33am Sep 12, 2007 3:33am
Hi Ronald - it would be great if you could reduce the size of your image - say remove 1/3 or so of the left side....this would fit better into the FF format and stop it automatically resizing the thread....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif


Here´s a close up of the 4hr TL....
Attached Image
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,391
  • Sep 12, 2007 3:41am Sep 12, 2007 3:41am
Quoting smjones
The chart limit is 600 x 600 please do not post charts larger than this size.

Thanks
Hi Scott,

Sorry about the incorrect size wasn't aware, rectified now I hope.

I am a bit of a techno moron so that taxed my brain.

Regards,

Chris.


My 4h T/L
Attached Image
  • #13,392
  • Sep 12, 2007 3:48am Sep 12, 2007 3:48am
Must have missed something there so Smjones was talking to someone called ronald, never saw his chart!

Thought it was strange.
  • #13,393
  • Sep 12, 2007 3:50am Sep 12, 2007 3:50am
Quoting Wolf.
Hi Scott,

Sorry about the incorrect size wasn't aware, rectified now I hope.

I am a bit of a techno moron so that taxed my brain.

Regards,

Chris.


My 4h T/L
LOL - you´re not the only one, it took me a little time to work out that if I reduced the size of the chart on my screen that would solve the problem!
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,394
  • Sep 12, 2007 3:52am Sep 12, 2007 3:52am
Quoting Wolf.
Must have missed something there so Smjones was talking to someone called ronald, never saw his chart!

Thought it was strange.
It was too big, so the mod removed it....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,395
  • Sep 12, 2007 8:46am Sep 12, 2007 8:46am
Wanted to post these charts earlier but had to go out and didn't have time.

Possibly on the verge of a a move north, I went long 231.35 on a rejection of the 4h trend line based on the close.

May be totally wrong but I have profit locked in now so will watch what happens.

It could of course just continue to range today.

Until this trend line breaks short I'm only looking to long.

Just my novice view.

See attached charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj 4 hr 120907.gif Size: 12 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gj 15 m 120907.gif Size: 11 KB
  • #13,396
  • Sep 12, 2007 10:06am Sep 12, 2007 10:06am
Quoting Wolf.
Wanted to post these charts earlier but had to go out and didn't have time.

Possibly on the verge of a a move north, I went long 231.35 on a rejection of the 4h trend line based on the close.

May be totally wrong but I have profit locked in now so will watch what happens.

It could of course just continue to range today.

Until this trend line breaks short I'm only looking to long.

Just my novice view.

See attached charts
Based on the bounce from the 8am low you´re fine, but so far this is a narrow range day - about 100 pips less than normal and I´m still seeing too much conflict between Cable and UJ, so staying out.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,397
  • Edited 11:29am Sep 12, 2007 10:35am | Edited 11:29am
A fair bit to support my entry long in my view

4h trend line 'support'
Strong support level on the 1 and 4 hr chart
Weekly pivot
Red Zone
Bounce up from 231
Bounce up from M2 (230.98)
Pin bar on 5, 15 & 30m
50 pip stop giving me a RRR of at least 2:1 with min +100 target (M3)
Heads (long) on my threepenny bit coin toss

Edit: closed 1/2 for +70 remaining 1/2 at +10
  • #13,398
  • Sep 12, 2007 11:56am Sep 12, 2007 11:56am
I am curious about something- and have been for a while:

Newstrader posted this whole thing about the relationship of GJ to its pairs ie: Since you obviously don't know-i'll tell you.

GBP/JPY = GBP/USD x USD/JPY. The price of G/J equals the price of G/U times the price of U/J.

That's how u make the big pips trading G/J-when ur in a nice sustained carry trade trend...

I keep thinking about this and don't understand the big deal. I would expect all crosses to have this relationship. I finally actually looked at some other crosses and find this to be true. I am curious if any math majors out there could explain to me why this relationship would NOT be true. It just seems to be a natural occurence.

Any input would be appreciated.
  • #13,399
  • Sep 12, 2007 12:30pm Sep 12, 2007 12:30pm
Quoting ForexPips
I am curious about something- and have been for a while:

Newstrader posted this whole thing about the relationship of GJ to its pairs ie: Since you obviously don't know-i'll tell you.

GBP/JPY = GBP/USD x USD/JPY. The price of G/J equals the price of G/U times the price of U/J.

That's how u make the big pips trading G/J-when ur in a nice sustained carry trade trend...

I keep thinking about this and don't understand the big deal. I would expect all crosses to have this relationship. I finally actually looked at some other crosses and find this to be true. I am curious if any math majors out there could explain to me why this relationship would NOT be true. It just seems to be a natural occurence.

Any input would be appreciated.
LOL....I´m the wrong guy to ask why it would NOT be true, since I continually post comments about the Cable and UJ in relation to the movement - or lack of - in GJ. I too will be interested to see any replies.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,400
  • Sep 12, 2007 12:33pm Sep 12, 2007 12:33pm
double
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