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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #13,361
  • Sep 11, 2007 3:51am Sep 11, 2007 3:51am
hello anybody

im back to forex after 2 month
  • #13,362
  • Sep 11, 2007 4:09am Sep 11, 2007 4:09am
Quoting Wolf.
Attached 4 HR chart ...Opinions welcome.

If price manages to break the 229.50 level I see 228.20 as an easy target, below that the centre of the 4 hr channel.

If price breaks north a retest of 231 and if that is broken the upper 4hr declining trend line would be my next target around 232.

Just my novice view.
Agreed, a breakout of the current 230.84 - 229.58 range is needed, but I guess that we may have to wait for the US Trade Data at 8:30 EDT. So far, both cable and UJ are holding under their respective highs from yesterday, so until there is a break I dont think GJ will move far, although a 20/30 pip spike to take out some stops wouldn´t surprise me! I´m staying out for now, pips banked and no clear signal.
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  • #13,363
  • Sep 11, 2007 4:26am Sep 11, 2007 4:26am
Quoting persian.forex
hello anybody

im back to forex after 2 month
Hi....hope you had a good break and are ready to take on "The Beast" again
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  • #13,364
  • Sep 11, 2007 4:45am Sep 11, 2007 4:45am
Hello Islander

Is the method which you use to tame this beast anywhere in this thread? If yes please direct me to the relevant post.
I see that you use 5min chart as above posted
Regards
  • #13,365
  • Sep 11, 2007 5:00am Sep 11, 2007 5:00am
Hey Islander,
i like your charts.
is there anyway i can get your tpl?
Tnx
  • #13,366
  • Sep 11, 2007 5:38am Sep 11, 2007 5:38am
Quoting Islander
Hi....hope you had a good break and are ready to take on "The Beast" again
Assuming it will wake up before I go to sleep.
  • #13,367
  • Sep 11, 2007 6:08am Sep 11, 2007 6:08am
As I said earlier..." a spike to take out some stops would not surprise me"..
it did happen, but only an 8 pipper

Its best seen by drilling down to my 1 min chart, the 05:04 candle tested the old high at 230.84 and the 05:28 candle went 8 pips further, BUT look at The Snake - a lower high, so loosing "force" and hence bearish divergence, so dont get suckered in, stay out!

The spike was caused by Cable making a new high for today, but UJ was about 20 pips under its high and not supporting a breakout.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sep 11 1m 0700.gif Size: 12 KB
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  • #13,368
  • Sep 11, 2007 6:23am Sep 11, 2007 6:23am
Quoting howard
Hello Islander

Is the method which you use to tame this beast anywhere in this thread? If yes please direct me to the relevant post.
I see that you use 5min chart as above posted
Hi Howard - this is still "work in progress" but I basically review the 4 hourly and 30 min charts regularly and watch the 5 min on GJ, UJ and Cable.

I use the Daily Pivots with Mid Points - often useful when the market is ranging like today! The last swing high and low off the 5 min is also plotted and I use fibbos for retracements and occasionally for expansions.

On the longer term charts I look to see if there is an Elliott Wave count that makes any sense.

I now use The Snake rather than stochastics or MACD as I seem to be able to "read more" into its action.

I view price directly against the 3 EMAs - 8, 34 and 200 and will use these for an actual entry level after a reaction to one of the levels.

I´ll drill down to the 1 min for clarification when needed.

Hope this helps - now for a quick bite of lunch before the data
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  • #13,369
  • Sep 11, 2007 6:46am Sep 11, 2007 6:46am
Thank you Islander for clarification
Regards
  • #13,370
  • Sep 11, 2007 7:23am Sep 11, 2007 7:23am
Here´s another great buy off the 1 min...at 06:06 there was a lower low, but a higher snake. Then either of the two green arrows would have given a nice buy as price broke upwards thru either the 34 EMA or the 200EMA - worth 100 pips or so as the move was supported first by the 200EMA, then the 34EMA and finally the 8EMA. It just popped above yesterdays high before dropping back.

This time it was the rally in UJ that propelled GJ up - it also got to yesterdays high.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sep 11 1m 0815.gif Size: 12 KB
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  • #13,371
  • Sep 11, 2007 7:25am Sep 11, 2007 7:25am
Quoting pipslooker
Hey Islander,
i like your charts.
is there anyway i can get your tpl?
Tnx
My post answering Howard´s question should help....PM me if you need to.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,372
  • Sep 11, 2007 8:08am Sep 11, 2007 8:08am
Made up for my earlier lose after longing at the lower trend line 230.37, removed half at 231.30 (h3), I will exit if it breaks below 231.

May be a good buying opportunity here?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj 15 m 110907.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #13,373
  • Sep 11, 2007 8:18am Sep 11, 2007 8:18am
Quoting Wolf.
Made up for my earlier lose after longing at the lower trend line 230.37, removed half at 231.30 (h3), I will exit if it breaks below 231.

May be a good buying opportunity here?
I´d like to see it pull back to high that was resistance earlier -230.84 - with a bit of "juice" as Strato calls it - i.e. a spike, but so far its held at the 231 level - also M3 - so that could hold it. As I´ve not got a signal, I´ll wait for the open of the US Stock Markets - well the "Pit" open.

PS Now seeing conflict, Cable down and UJ up.....ugh!
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  • #13,374
  • Sep 11, 2007 8:35am Sep 11, 2007 8:35am
Quoting Islander
I´d like to see it pull back to high that was resistance earlier -230.84 - with a bit of "juice" as Strato calls it - i.e. a spike, but so far its held at the 231 level - also M3 - so that could hold it. As I´ve not got a signal, I´ll wait for the open of the US Stock Markets - well the "Pit" open.

PS Now seeing conflict, Cable down and UJ up.....ugh!

Yes I would agree with you 230.84 is the better support.

We have a little green juice though .

Ref: hangover.... remember when I could look forward to feeling better as the day progressed, doesn't seem to work like that any more!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj 5 m 110907.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #13,375
  • Sep 11, 2007 8:49am Sep 11, 2007 8:49am
Quoting Wolf.
Yes I would agree with you 230.84 is the better support.

We have a little green juice though .

Ref: hangover.... remember when I could look forward to feeling better as the day progressed, doesn't seem to work like that any more!!!
LOL You´ve got juice too.....is some green any good for a hangover??

BTW, I use a "synthetic juice" now to keep my charts as simple as possible - its a +/- band on the 34EMA http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

PS Cable / UJ conflict continues
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  • #13,376
  • Sep 11, 2007 9:03am Sep 11, 2007 9:03am
Quoting Islander
LOL You´ve got juice too.....is some green any good for a hangover??

BTW, I use a "synthetic juice" now to keep my charts as simple as possible - its a +/- band on the 34EMA http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

PS Cable / UJ conflict continues
Yes I am all for simple I mostly use clear charts just trend lines and s/r, still use the above chart though with juice there just as an indication of volatility, not actually as strato used it.

Don't know if i need some green juice maybe orange juice and an afternoon kip.
  • #13,377
  • Sep 11, 2007 9:06am Sep 11, 2007 9:06am
I believe Strato would be shorting this pair right now.

Price at H3 Green zone.

Vtop on 5 & 15m with higher juice than then preceeding candle.

Trending down on the hourly chart.

Target daily pivot and L3

  • #13,378
  • Sep 11, 2007 9:35am Sep 11, 2007 9:35am
Quoting Wolf.
I believe Strato would be shorting this pair right now.

Price at H3 Green zone.

Vtop on 5 & 15m with higher juice than then preceeding candle.

Trending down on the hourly chart.

Target daily pivot and L3

Its been 18 months since I read all 900 pages of Strato´s thread, so forgotten his triggers! With Helicopter Ben due to speak at 11 EDT I dont see anything other than back and forth till then
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  • #13,379
  • Sep 11, 2007 11:39am Sep 11, 2007 11:39am
Quoting Islander
Its been 18 months since I read all 900 pages of Strato´s thread, so forgotten his triggers! With Helicopter Ben due to speak at 11 EDT I dont see anything other than back and forth till then
Yeah me too, I actually learnt an enormous amount without realising it at the time. All the pieces have fallen together as I have gained experience. The 'Strato formula' I believe needed a lot of discretion which only comes with experience and I think a lot of people struggled to make it work.

I see price touched M3 to the pip and is slowly making headway north.
  • #13,380
  • Sep 11, 2007 11:49am Sep 11, 2007 11:49am
Quoting Wolf.
Yeah me too, I actually learnt an enormous amount without realising it at the time. All the pieces have fallen together as I have gained experience. The 'Strato formula' I believe needed a lot of discretion which only comes with experience and I think a lot of people struggled to make it work.

I see price touched M3 to the pip and is slowly making headway north.
Now tested S1 twice, but needs cable´s support to break it - or UJ to break its R1
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