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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #23,441
  • Sep 9, 2007 1:51am Sep 9, 2007 1:51am
I know with traditional options, implied volatility plays a fairly large factor in option prices.. higher volatility = higher prices and vice-versa.. I'm glad you guys are discussing option strategies, because I've been wanting to spend time soon trying to find an option strategy to hedge my forex trades.. I always envisioned that low volatility times would probably be the best times to use an option strategy (I believe almost all strategies have certain types of market conditions that they will either succeed or fail in). I haven't had any time to see if betonmarkets.com uses volatility or not in their pricing, but any standard option stategy certainly should take volatility into consideration.

The funny thing about standard option prices relating to volatility is that volatilty typically goes opposite of market direction and "most" people purchase call options, betting on the market to go up.. Not only is time working against them, but so is volatility! I've done lots of demo trading with stock options along with some live trading, and it is so frustrating to watch a market price slowly go up (like you anticipated, just slower of course), but yet your option value keeps on dropping or staying the same.. lol

Anyhow, sorry if I am wasting time here and everyone already knows these things, but I thought it might relate to your strategy and option trading is one of the few trading experiences that I have
  • #23,442
  • Sep 9, 2007 2:02am Sep 9, 2007 2:02am
Quoting kevinsw
Hmmm.. Now this stuff will make you think. Can't say as I believe the slave mining part though.
In my opinion, the slave mining thing isn't so far fetched.. I read a book about precious metals a couple of years ago and it talks about how gold would most likely be our most valuable commodity to trade with aliens if we ever meet any.. The reason for this is that gold is the most dense of all metals and takes the longest amount of time for a planet to produce.. The density makes it very useful in technology too and is why they can spread it so thin (electro-plating or whatever its called) and still retain it's great conductive properties.. Those gold plated electronic connectors use such a tiny amount of gold!

Definitely stuff to think about!
  • #23,443
  • Sep 9, 2007 2:54am Sep 9, 2007 2:54am
Quoting auslanco
HI Hakuna..This is not the traditional Options strategy I was talking about.. It's more like financial betting. Please have a look at www.betonmarkets.com. Please let me know what you think

ty bro--will chk it out when fx mkt opens to see various options by that site--have already browsed thru it--thanks
  • #23,444
  • Sep 9, 2007 7:27am Sep 9, 2007 7:27am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #23,445
  • Sep 9, 2007 8:06am Sep 9, 2007 8:06am
Quoting Hakuna Matata



reminds me of the good ole days
  • #23,446
  • Sep 9, 2007 8:06am Sep 9, 2007 8:06am
Nice one bro



Quoting Hakuna Matata
  • #23,447
  • Sep 9, 2007 10:27am Sep 9, 2007 10:27am
Quoting fourxtrader
Ahhhhh, UK, is that like English humor... dry as Dubai and Arizona.

I've got a touch of both in me... English that is.

Yes, I'm one of the colonials who whipped your ass 200 years ago. lol

No hard feelings, now I'm willing to learn. You can teach me....
first how to recover the accent... then how to read and correlate
the historical charts.

Admittedly, I am the novice, jokester and clearly the smarter ass here.


Sorry, my charts do not go back 200 years but that may explain why VT uses blue and red bars! I'm not English though I am British (naturalised), Australian (bred) and European (birth and blood) so my loyalties lie all over the place.

Now, I am glad you have taken the time to look at the monthly and I do appreciate your enthusiasm. It makes it all worthwhile!

Quoting fourxtrader
The questions? Monthly charts?.... Interesting. Mine go back to 1/'78
I haven't spent a moments time on monthly charts. Thanks for bringing
them up.

I've noticed it took from 7/'86 through 8/'92 to break through support
at these levels (240's-230's)*** to a historical low of 129.32 in 4/'95 and
has twice tried since to revisit this support / now resistance in 5/'98 and
12/'06 and subsequently bouncing back down... first to 148.26. I drew a
trend line from these two lows and extrapolated the next projected point
of intersection should we continue to fall at a similar pace which could be
in 5/'09 to around 177.71.

That's my prediction.... 177.71 Markam needs to revise long term.

If it pushes back through 240's with any vigor it could reach the 280's by
10/'13 which is another resistance level.

So for Karmostaji's benefit, he could revise to 280.64.

*** consider this... dropping is the more natural course. We have
bounced down off of resistance that was in the 230-240 area. The 251
was an artifically high point after a very long uptrend where the price
tends to push slightly beyond a support / resistance level. The historical
resistance / support levels over the last 20 years were in the 230's - 240's,
not the 250's.

sleepinginatimewarp
Good to see that you spent some time analysing it - and a good analysis too! Now when looking at charts, look back using the current time and price as your point of reference. Imagine we are back in June of this year and price is going up (say current price is around 243). If you look back from there, can you tell me what month and year we hit first? Also, what was the high at that time?

Z
  • #23,448
  • Sep 9, 2007 11:02am Sep 9, 2007 11:02am
FED'S PLOSSER SAYS "CONSIDERABLE" UNCERTAINTY IN GROWTH FORECAST
-Plosser sees Fed policy shift ONLY on damaged growth outlook and that the markets must reprice risk themselves.
* Note that as recently as 7/24 (just 5 weeks ago) Plosser stated he saw "no sign" of subprime woes hitting the broader economy. (see our research note)<SPY TLT>
  • #23,449
  • Sep 9, 2007 11:03am Sep 9, 2007 11:03am
okay this may be a stupid question but does MT4 run on mac's?

thanks
  • #23,450
  • Sep 9, 2007 11:48am Sep 9, 2007 11:48am
Quoting Gandolf
K, here it is
Thanks a lot Gandolf
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #23,451
  • Sep 9, 2007 12:28pm Sep 9, 2007 12:28pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Gandolf
Which broker provides you with the DJI on MT4?
if you don't need the broker and jsut want the chart, use MT4 demo

1. Download latest build from our website http://www.metaquotes.net/files/mt4setup.exe

You can open a demo account on our demo server:
Enter "Demo.Metaquotes.net:443" in the "Server:" field of the "Server" tab in the "Tools -> Options" menu. Click "Ok".
Then go to the "File -> Open an Account" menu and select "Demo.Metaquotes.net:443" at the second registration page.

2. MetaTrader 4 can connect to MetaTrader 4 Server. Ask your broker support team about trading via MetaTrader 4 Server.

regards
MPP
  • #23,452
  • Sep 9, 2007 12:36pm Sep 9, 2007 12:36pm
A quick look at the monthly:

1. Clear candle reversal pattern with almost a bearish engulfing candle

2. 5 SMA clear breaking and close below

3. 23.6 Fibo clearly broken

4. Stochs croosed over and back below the 80 OB level for the first time since June 2006 which supports the bearish direction

5. Down trend line starting to emerge

Nevertheless, the following support levels are not tested yet:

1. 20 SMA currently @ 225.71

2. Upward trendline is not yet tested currently @ 224.26

3. The first strong Fibo of 38,2 @ 223.72

So be careful and watch out for those levels

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #23,453
  • Sep 9, 2007 12:53pm Sep 9, 2007 12:53pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting karmostaji
Thanks a lot Gandolf
whats the indicator for?

regards

MPP
  • #23,454
  • Sep 9, 2007 12:59pm Sep 9, 2007 12:59pm
Quoting MPP
whats the indicator for?

regards

MPP
It plots Annual, Monthly, weekly, daily S/R levels
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #23,455
  • Sep 9, 2007 1:07pm Sep 9, 2007 1:07pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting karmostaji
It plots Annual, Monthly, weekly, daily S/R levels
wow, now hats a busy chart, is there any post about the lines and coulours and how to use them.
  • #23,456
  • Sep 9, 2007 1:12pm Sep 9, 2007 1:12pm
Quoting MPP
wow, now hats a busy chart, is there any post about the lines and coulours and how to use them.
Annually is Yellow
Monthly is Red
Weekly is Magneta
Daily is Plum
Psychological levels is Blue (you can turn this one off if you wish)

I just plotted them and some of them line up perfectly with the fibs, I think it is going to be pretty useful.

Thanks Gandolf
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #23,457
  • Sep 9, 2007 1:20pm Sep 9, 2007 1:20pm
The weekly Fibo extension:

Next Fibo extension level of 138.2, as soon as the previous low is broken,
is @ 213.07

Attached Image
  • #23,458
  • Sep 9, 2007 1:28pm Sep 9, 2007 1:28pm
Quoting Majd
A quick look at the monthly:

So be careful and watch out for those levels
Agree that most signs point down and to be cautious. There is also an ascending right-angle triangle (bullish sign) in the picture that may not yet be broken. We'll find out on Sunday/Monday so I'll be flat until I get a clear sign (which I expect to come on Tuesday).
  • #23,459
  • Sep 9, 2007 2:00pm Sep 9, 2007 2:00pm
Well, I was just curious... that picture is very interesting... that look says it all!

It's all about the attitude maite .

And thanks for all your contribution, am learning a whole lot here.

Regards,
-A.


Quoting karmostaji
Hi apume,

No it's not me, why?
  • #23,460
  • Edited 3:00pm Sep 9, 2007 2:03pm | Edited 3:00pm
Quoting MPP
if you don't need the broker and jsut want the chart, use MT4 demo

1. Download latest build from our website http://www.metaquotes.net/files/mt4setup.exe

You can open a demo account on our demo server:
Enter "Demo.Metaquotes.net:443" in the "Server:" field of the "Server" tab in the "Tools -> Options" menu. Click "Ok".
Then go to the "File -> Open an Account" menu and select "Demo.Metaquotes.net:443" at the second registration page.

2. MetaTrader 4 can connect to MetaTrader 4 Server. Ask your broker support team about trading via MetaTrader 4 Server.

regards
MPP
You are with the company that puts out MetaTrader. MPP, it is GREAT to have the Dow in MT4. Thanks so much.

I have an account with FXSol and told the guy who called me after i opened the account they were missing the boat by not using MT4. He said they would consider MT4... but dunno. Filled out all the paper with Alpari to open an account. They told me i have to wait until their NYC office completes some work to comply with Federal Regs.

G
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