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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #23,401
  • Sep 8, 2007 12:36pm Sep 8, 2007 12:36pm
Quoting Majd
The important question is... what will be the next most probable retracement level before continuing the fall?

A. No further retracement

B. Up to a Fibo level

C. Up to a SMA/EMA
OK, you go first
  • #23,402
  • Sep 8, 2007 1:19pm Sep 8, 2007 1:19pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting KillerWhale
Maybe you can forget about oct/nov might be a great time, its probably a lot worse than now. In Oct 10.000's of mortgages are going to reset to higher interest. 3 months after that people will start defaulting on mortgages again and another 3 months later the foreclosers will spike again.
Just my view.

Orca
ok so i might be wrong and it drops like a bomb- suits me i'll trade that.

one point though, you don't think the banks, the government and the big investers are all over that? carry trade are all about interest rates and the panick is over, we know it's out there - no shock now.
The politicians don't want to change rates and the banks have already written of the loss.
Governments need the rates to control there loans, not our loans.

Anyway trade the trend, the trend is your friend - can't remember which wise FF member first told me that, but it's struck home now.

regards

MPP
  • #23,403
  • Sep 8, 2007 1:41pm Sep 8, 2007 1:41pm
Quoting Zoran
I did not mean to offend lilmoe. I was in fact joking around and I'm sure most people here got that (him included)! Now Friday night in the UK with some wine is not the ideal time to analyse charts but I do appreciate his offer! In response I wanted to show him what a monthly chart can offer as an excercise. I don't see anything flippant about that but I'm willing to accept others could!

Now, if we are here to learn, where are my answers?

Ahhhhh, UK, is that like English humor... dry as Dubai and Arizona.

I've got a touch of both in me... English that is.

Yes, I'm one of the colonials who whipped your ass 200 years ago. lol

No hard feelings, now I'm willing to learn. You can teach me....
first how to recover the accent... then how to read and correlate
the historical charts.

Admittedly, I am the novice, jokester and clearly the smarter ass here.

The questions? Monthly charts?.... Interesting. Mine go back to 1/'78
I haven't spent a moments time on monthly charts. Thanks for bringing
them up.

I've noticed it took from 7/'86 through 8/'92 to break through support
at these levels (240's-230's)*** to a historical low of 129.32 in 4/'95 and
has twice tried since to revisit this support / now resistance in 5/'98 and
12/'06 and subsequently bouncing back down... first to 148.26. I drew a
trend line from these two lows and extrapolated the next projected point
of intersection should we continue to fall at a similar pace which could be
in 5/'09 to around 177.71.

That's my prediction.... 177.71 Markam needs to revise long term.

If it pushes back through 240's with any vigor it could reach the 280's by
10/'13 which is another resistance level.

So for Karmostaji's benefit, he could revise to 280.64.

*** consider this... dropping is the more natural course. We have
bounced down off of resistance that was in the 230-240 area. The 251
was an artifically high point after a very long uptrend where the price
tends to push slightly beyond a support / resistance level. The historical
resistance / support levels over the last 20 years were in the 230's - 240's,
not the 250's.

sleepinginatimewarp
  • #23,404
  • Edited 2:54pm Sep 8, 2007 1:56pm | Edited 2:54pm
Quoting p777m
Would you believe that I'm still holding an open long position since June at open price 250.00 ?

This was the first time I entered GBPJPY looking at it as a carry trade opportunity. Even though it is a very small position just 0.05 lot to test the waters. I thought it can't hurt me. It can't fall 10 000 pips it's a carry trade pair! (this is my max loss tolerance for this position). But now I'm starting to believe I was wrong...

I think when I opened the position I caused "the butterfly effect" and caused the GBPJPY to fall like a rock.

Now I have dilemma shall I still hold this position to collect the interest and wait for the pair to recover (if ever) or quit and take the loss as this it the end of carry trading?

Denial to lose... is the biggest mental obstacle in trading I think.

p777m

My friend, you may never see 250 again, or until 9/2012, but imagine if you
hold on, all of the carry trade you will have earned while you wait to break
even in pips.

Now, wouldn't it be better to trade down and back up again to that date.

See my post... #23404 for some prognostications.
  • #23,405
  • Edited Sep 9, 2007 6:13am Sep 8, 2007 1:57pm | Edited Sep 9, 2007 6:13am
K, here it is
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 SR.mq4   23 KB | 531 downloads
  • #23,406
  • Sep 8, 2007 5:37pm Sep 8, 2007 5:37pm
Quoting Majd
The important question is... what will be the next most probable retracement level before continuing the fall?

A. No further retracement

B. Up to a Fibo level

C. Up to a SMA/EMA

my answer is in the charts i posted earlier
  • #23,407
  • Sep 8, 2007 5:46pm Sep 8, 2007 5:46pm
This is not intended as an introductory to any particular theory other then how world events and the markets relate.


http://www.socionomics.net/films/his...lt.aspx?page=1

Enjoy
  • #23,408
  • Edited 6:28pm Sep 8, 2007 6:12pm | Edited 6:28pm
Hope everyone had a good weekend so far..

I'm sure everyone who has ever heard about GBP/JPY pair is predicting a big fall on the coming weeks..Therefor I'm not going to post any chart analysis and repeat the same thing,
However everyone of us should still maintain a proper money mangement strategy. Nothing is guaranteed. Large falls are always followed by a large retracements. If you over leverage your account or load too many positions it will burn your account. Overconfidence is a bad habit in forex and it only can harm your account. Therefor we must treat current trading conditions as just another ordinary trading opportunity but NOT as a quick get rich trade.
  • #23,409
  • Sep 8, 2007 6:19pm Sep 8, 2007 6:19pm
Aus,

What is the little 1k by your name now?
  • #23,410
  • Sep 8, 2007 6:21pm Sep 8, 2007 6:21pm
Quoting markam
Aus,

What is the little 1k by your name now?
it is a trading group here at FF that it only by invitation.
  • #23,411
  • Sep 8, 2007 6:43pm Sep 8, 2007 6:43pm
aus, anyone here, please take a look at this indicator for me, i thought it was quite interesting...especially on the h1 tf

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 3 MA Cross w_Alert v2.mq4   6 KB | 757 downloads
  • #23,412
  • Sep 8, 2007 7:18pm Sep 8, 2007 7:18pm
Quoting dracozny
This is not intended as an introductory to any particular theory other then how world events and the markets relate.


http://www.socionomics.net/films/his...lt.aspx?page=1

Enjoy
I definitely enjoyed this. Lately I've been giving thought to what really drives the financial markets. My conclusion is that it's human psychology. Perceptions, feelings, and moods. Socionomics seems to take that conclusion to the next level, and this was a facinating intro to it. Thanks!
  • #23,413
  • Sep 8, 2007 7:19pm Sep 8, 2007 7:19pm
Quoting lilmoe
aus, anyone here, please take a look at this indicator for me, i thought it was quite interesting...especially on the h1 tf

Attachment
Hi lilmoe.. I'm trying to download this to myMT4 indicator list. But it doesn't come up on my indicator list after the download. Can you post a screen shot.
  • #23,414
  • Sep 8, 2007 7:26pm Sep 8, 2007 7:26pm
sure, i can also email it to u....

here's an h1 chart (i've used 5sma with it also, might be good entry points)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: h1.gif Size: 22 KB



here's an m15 chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: m15.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #23,415
  • Sep 8, 2007 7:31pm Sep 8, 2007 7:31pm
Quoting auslanco
Hi lilmoe.. I'm trying to download this to myMT4 indicator list. But it doesn't come up on my indicator list after the download. Can you post a screen shot.
Glad to see the 1KT by your name, keep up the good work.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #23,416
  • Sep 8, 2007 7:38pm Sep 8, 2007 7:38pm
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
I definitely enjoyed this. Lately I've been giving thought to what really drives the financial markets. My conclusion is that it's human psychology. Perceptions, feelings, and moods. Socionomics seems to take that conclusion to the next level, and this was a facinating intro to it. Thanks!
Your very welcome
  • #23,417
  • Sep 8, 2007 7:45pm Sep 8, 2007 7:45pm
did it work aus?
  • #23,418
  • Sep 8, 2007 8:02pm Sep 8, 2007 8:02pm
Quoting lilmoe
aus, anyone here, please take a look at this indicator for me, i thought it was quite interesting...especially on the h1 tf

Attachment
it looks like a ma crossover indicator...
looking at past history--definately interesting

we need to see whether it repaints itself or not? thats the main thing--lets see how it works this coming week
  • #23,419
  • Sep 8, 2007 8:03pm Sep 8, 2007 8:03pm
Auslanco,

Hello. Just checking to see if you're there. I had more time to look at your proposed option strategy. did you want to discuss here, or via PM or e-mail?




Frank
  • #23,420
  • Sep 8, 2007 8:07pm Sep 8, 2007 8:07pm
Quoting Hakuna Matata
it looks like a ma crossover indicator...
looking at past history--definately interesting

we need to see whether it repaints itself or not? thats the main thing--lets see how it works this coming week

it does repaint itself, and it also has a alert...
i'm sure we can benifit from it. try it out on m30
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