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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)
- #23,361
- Sep 8, 2007 1:23am Sep 8, 2007 1:23am
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Short on USD/MXN, Long on legs | 16,578 Posts
Just 1 question to the forum:
Why is it that everyone wants to see this pair going down?
I used to be a bull because of the interest coming my way, now I don't care anymore, to me, this pair is interesting because it moves so fast and for such a lot of pips.
I really don't care which way it moves,
up is good
down is good
sideways is good (gives you a highly needed break)
AS LONG AS IT MOVES, THATS THE ONLY THING THAT COUNTS
ORCA
Well said Orca. As long as it moves we make money... But analysing and taking other people's point of views sometimes makes us see things easier. I also have to admit that I wasn't into fibos this much and did not use them efficiently before seeing Karmo's way(sounded like Al Pacino's movie
). I used different ma's and already had a strategy running with Hakuna's ma's but he uses them differently. I like to get Zoran's predictions,Markam's ideas and whenever Monarch says something I read carefully. And QQE and the use of momentum and the sma5... Thanks to Aus and the other contributors.To get where this pair can go may give more pips than just taking a few hundred pips or by taking a few with straddling. We, at least me like to see the feedbacks of other people trading this pair.
Btw one of the best examples(at least said out loud) I have seen in this forum is MikeW's trade getting 1,000pips. I am an intraday trader but when I see people being patient and see exactly where the market can make up to, I assume knowing the direction makes difference
now u all know about the FUNDAMENTALS:
TECHNICALS:
THE CHARTS SAY IT ALL:
TOOLS I USE TO ANALYSE: MONTHLY PIVOT AND ITS S/R LEVELS, FIBS, MACD, QQE, PSAR, 50EMA, 100SMA (2OOSMA/EMA-IN LARGER TF), CCI(18), CANDLESTICK PATTERNS, STOCHS, AND RECENT S/R LEVELS
EMA CROSSOVERS FOR SMALLER T/F TREND INDICATION: 6EMA/13 SMA AND 10EMA/21 EMA
I KEEP AN EYE OUT ON ALL OF THE ABOVE
PS-- RETRACEMENTS POSSIBLE: ON 4HR TO 100SMA , 5SMA OR 38.2% FIB
POINTS:
GOOD ANGLE/SEPARATION OF 21/10EMA ON 4HR
ENJOY
PS--ALWAYS WATCH THE 50EMA ON 15/30/1HR
- #23,364
- Edited 3:56am Sep 8, 2007 2:17am | Edited 3:56am
AS LONG AS IT MOVES, THATS THE ONLY THING THAT COUNTS
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...9&postcount=13
weekly ww parameters .. and retracement .50% ..
,
- #23,365
- Sep 8, 2007 3:37am Sep 8, 2007 3:37am
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Dubai | 11,493 Posts
Weekly analysis:
Weekly chart:
As I had predicted that last week would be a bear week and it indeed turned out to be so, now looking at the weekly fibonacci levels, GJ is looking to retest the 50%, 61.8% and even touching 76.4% which is 212.45 area, the weekly chart is still bullish unless we get a weekly bar closing below the lower TL, then things will change but in my prediction we will touch the 76.4% in the coming weeks
http://img509.imageshack.us/img509/1134/gjmw1.gif
Daily chart:
As we have seen in the past weeks, GJ retraced 50% of the move down and it has started to resume it's bearish trend now. The last day of the week, the candle closed well below the 38.2% fibonacci level, the next level is the 23.6% which is also close to the weekly 50%
http://img295.imageshack.us/img295/526/gjst9.gif
4H chart:
Looking at the Green fibs, we completed 61.8% retracement and price has started to resume it's bearish trend. I also added the orange fibs, all these fibonacci are good levels to keep an eye on, the beast will take a rest at some of these levels like it did at the 76.4% (orange)
http://img172.imageshack.us/img172/9167/gjwk0.gif
so, in simple words.. I also see 212 in the coming weeks/month
Weekly chart:
As I had predicted that last week would be a bear week and it indeed turned out to be so, now looking at the weekly fibonacci levels, GJ is looking to retest the 50%, 61.8% and even touching 76.4% which is 212.45 area, the weekly chart is still bullish unless we get a weekly bar closing below the lower TL, then things will change but in my prediction we will touch the 76.4% in the coming weeks
http://img509.imageshack.us/img509/1134/gjmw1.gif
Daily chart:
As we have seen in the past weeks, GJ retraced 50% of the move down and it has started to resume it's bearish trend now. The last day of the week, the candle closed well below the 38.2% fibonacci level, the next level is the 23.6% which is also close to the weekly 50%
http://img295.imageshack.us/img295/526/gjst9.gif
4H chart:
Looking at the Green fibs, we completed 61.8% retracement and price has started to resume it's bearish trend. I also added the orange fibs, all these fibonacci are good levels to keep an eye on, the beast will take a rest at some of these levels like it did at the 76.4% (orange)
http://img172.imageshack.us/img172/9167/gjwk0.gif
so, in simple words.. I also see 212 in the coming weeks/month
Trade what you see, not what you think.
- #23,366
- Sep 8, 2007 3:40am Sep 8, 2007 3:40am
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Dubai | 11,493 Posts
Hello buddy,
Is that picture your real pic?
-A.
No it's not me, why?
Trade what you see, not what you think.
- #23,368
- Sep 8, 2007 4:11am Sep 8, 2007 4:11am
- | Commercial User | Joined Jun 2007 | 3,549 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...9&postcount=13
weekly ww parameters .. and retracement .50% ..
,
- #23,369
- Sep 8, 2007 4:22am Sep 8, 2007 4:22am
- | Commercial User | Joined Jun 2007 | 3,549 Posts
Weekly analysis:
so, in simple words.. I also see 212 in the coming weeks/month
as u can see the bull man himself even thinks we r headed around the low 210's. (ps-- thanks for the fib analysis
-- im gonna call u Dr Fib-- its good to see when many, after their own analysis, can see the potential of a pair to head a certain target
now that doesnt mean it will go there 100%-- but its a possibility deduced from doing some analysis-- thats all !
so is it going to be a black monday re-incarnation?? lol
we trade what we see !!
- #23,370
- Edited 6:25am Sep 8, 2007 4:23am | Edited 6:25am
- Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Pip pip | 2,692 Posts
- #23,371
- Sep 8, 2007 4:25am Sep 8, 2007 4:25am
- | Commercial User | Joined Jun 2007 | 3,549 Posts
now i know ive posted this b4-- but i cant help it-- bite me!! 
:
: ![Click to Enlarge
Name: dow[1].jpg
Size: 71 KB](/attachment/image/48169/thumbnail?d=1365531593)
- #23,372
- Sep 8, 2007 4:39am Sep 8, 2007 4:39am
Dear traders....
I decided to start my own thread because there are some other great traders who can provide very valuable analysis of GBP/JPY on the other thread , and I feel that my trade calls are overshadowing those good analysis contributed by other experienced traders.
This thread is mainly focused for new traders who want to learn my trading methods.
Money Management & Trading habits:
Maximum 2% risk per pair. What that means is when you calculate your stop losses your stop loss amount has to be within 2% of your account .If the trade goes against you, the maximum you will loose is 2% of your account. This way it also prevents you from getting panic attacks when the trade retrace against you resulting you close the trade pre maturely. If your desired stop losses do not come within 2% of your account don’t take that trade. As I always say, you may miss one trade but there are millions more to come.
You always have to calculate your risk every time before you enter your trades.
Your risk to profit ratio has to be minimum 1:1. That means if you are taking a 2% risk on a trade make sure your profit target would be at least 2%.
Always have realistic targets. My aim is 300 % capital growth per year. The lesser your target is lesser the risk of losing your own money. Even if you have 50% capital growth per year you are doing better than 90% of the worlds biggest hedge funds.
More trades you take the more you expose your account for losses. No trader in this world can profit from every single market move.
Patience plays a big part in trading. Take the trades only if you are at least 90% sure of profiting from it. If you are not sure stay away from the trade. Staying on the sideline is as good as winning.
Never trade against the trend. Specially with a high volatile pair like GBP/JPY. It may give you couple of winning trades. But it’s going to get you in the long run.
Always have a trading strategy ... make a habit to stick to it doesn’t matter how desperate you are. Always trust your strategy but not bloomberg or some statement from citibank. Don’t go with your gut feeling because 95% of the time your gut feeling is wrong.
Your charts are your forex bible. Everything what you need to know about forex is on your charts. You will learn something new everyday from you charts.
Specialize in one or two pairs. Every single pair has it’s own characteristics. No two pairs are the same. Don’t trade all the pairs your broker can offer. If you specialize in one or two pairs very soon you will be able to read the pair like a road map .
Stay away from the ranging markets. There will be enough of trend break outs on this pair than you ever want. Why take any extra risks trying to chase 20 pips on a ranging markets when you can grab 200 pips on a break out.
As Monarc mentioned traders are a greedy bunch. Less greedy once are the most successful once.
Don’t try to chase every single pip or market movement. Have a realistic weekly or monthly target as a percentage of your account . Not the number of pips. If you have already achieved that target stay away from the market. As I mentioned before.. the more you trade there is more risk of losing your money.
The losses are part of the game. Do not try to cover all your previous losses from your next trade. First your trading plan has to include at least 50% of losing trades. Then you can cut down on the number of losing trades while you gain experience and confidence.
When you start you must demo trade at least for the first 3 months to build a trading strategy. Then for the next 3 months trade on a demo account or a micro account and test your strategy coupled with a good money management strategy. When you are fully confident then trade with your real account.
Use minimum account leverage. Don’t abuse it. My recommendation for new traders is maximum one mini lot for every $2500 or one full lot for every $25000.
At last ... remember there is no easy way to become a good consistently profitable trader. No one can become a profitable trader overnight. As everything else in life it takes time, patience lots of sacrifices and learning. Don’t be afraid of mistakes.
It took me 8 months to make my first consistent $100 per week. Since then making money is like a walk in the park.
Edit 07/31/07:
Notes about SI:
Quote:
Originally Posted by ovidiu http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I promise to not ask anything else that's not related directly to your strategy from now on, cause I realize that I am flooding with all this SI thing, but could you point me from where can I get that indicator, cause know is all I need to have an exact replica of your setting.
Add "Qualitative Quantitative Estimation" to VT. It is the same as "SI". A's is a commercial product that he can't pimp on this thread. PM him if you want to pay for it.
This info would be good on page 1 as well. It has been asked a thousand times.
Thanks for taking your time to help the novice,i really like your strategies. i will let you know if i have any problem. Thanks
Would you believe that I'm still holding an open long position since June at open price 250.00 ?
This was the first time I entered GBPJPY looking at it as a carry trade opportunity. Even though it is a very small position just 0.05 lot to test the waters. I thought it can't hurt me. It can't fall 10 000 pips it's a carry trade pair! (this is my max loss tolerance for this position). But now I'm starting to believe I was wrong...
I think when I opened the position I caused "the butterfly effect" and caused the GBPJPY to fall like a rock.
Now I have dilemma shall I still hold this position to collect the interest and wait for the pair to recover (if ever) or quit and take the loss as this it the end of carry trading?
Denial to lose... is the biggest mental obstacle in trading I think.
p777m
This was the first time I entered GBPJPY looking at it as a carry trade opportunity. Even though it is a very small position just 0.05 lot to test the waters. I thought it can't hurt me. It can't fall 10 000 pips it's a carry trade pair! (this is my max loss tolerance for this position). But now I'm starting to believe I was wrong...
I think when I opened the position I caused "the butterfly effect" and caused the GBPJPY to fall like a rock.
Now I have dilemma shall I still hold this position to collect the interest and wait for the pair to recover (if ever) or quit and take the loss as this it the end of carry trading?
Denial to lose... is the biggest mental obstacle in trading I think.
p777m
- #23,374
- Sep 8, 2007 4:55am Sep 8, 2007 4:55am
- | Commercial User | Joined Jun 2007 | 3,549 Posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...9&postcount=13
weekly ww parameters .. and retracement .50% ..
,
so 2012 eh?
- #23,378
- Sep 8, 2007 6:15am Sep 8, 2007 6:15am
- Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Pip pip | 2,692 Posts
I would like to agree with you lilmoe and By the way, great input with your charts keep going buddy. Technical paterns are created by events such as wars and econony statements and politics.
They are the depiction of multifarious human actions bearing on a single variable (price). On price converge a galaxy of influences: fear, greed, desire, cunning, malice, deceit, naivete, earning estimates, broker need for income, gullibility, professional money managers' need for performance and job security, supply and demand, liquidity and flow, self-destructiveness, passivity, trap setting, manipluation, blind arrogence, conspiracy and fraud and double dealing, phases of the moon and sun spots, economic cycles and beliefs in them, public mood and the indomitable human need to be right.
The book is "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends 8th Edition". I highly recommend it.
What makes me laugh on this thread is, when people pluck out old posts and claimed they predicted it. but i can also pluck out posts by these people(which i will not do) who predicted it might go the other way.So its 50/50 posibility and one will be right. I am new to forex and have plenty to learn but i will give you a prediction that is 100% guaranteed. the GBP/JPY is going to reach karmo's 251 and it will reach markhams 210 and when this happens, i will post my predictions from this post.it might take months or years but it will happen.
So we need to work out something more precise and take pips day at a time rather than warrying about what was 10 yers ago. or what will be 10 years from now. I am not discounting history, but the only thing that will tell me where we are going is the auslanco's trading system which will take us back in history or the future a step at a time. This is not an atack on anyone, and far from me to tell people what to post. People can disagree, But i prefer posts that are educational that is a benifit to all rather than what was, and self back patting. its just my thoughts and probably means nothing to anyone else but myself.
I can tell you now that 90% of all traders fail. That is because most people do not understand the basics. As this thread is full of newbies, that will probably increase to at least 99% or even 99.9%.
And yes, i did miss the boat friday and i am pissed off. Blody broakers, they should all be locked up. had a order 20 pips below the price at anouncement and did not get activated when it flew past it. still shows on order colum as active but not trigered
PS.Absalutely loath trade call with no charting or any reason why the call. so i nominate my self for the whiners list aus might as well give me the prize now :-)
Z
- #23,379
- Sep 8, 2007 6:37am Sep 8, 2007 6:37am
- Joined Mar 2007 | Status: 'sleeping in a dumpster' | 2,151 Posts
- #23,380
- Sep 8, 2007 8:20am Sep 8, 2007 8:20am
- Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Pip pip | 2,692 Posts
just seen the video in your signature-- interesting :surprised
so 2012 eh?
Please tell me you don't! Some people have creative minds and some people will believe anything they watch!